Mike Baker
@mikebaker.bsky.social
• National reporter at The New York Times
• Author of zero books
• NYT stuff: https://www.nytimes.com/by/mike-baker
📍 Seattle | Portland | PNW | News
• Author of zero books
• NYT stuff: https://www.nytimes.com/by/mike-baker
📍 Seattle | Portland | PNW | News
Brawl of the Wild
• #2 Montana v #3 Montana State
• Both with 7-0 conference records
• A storied rivalry dating to the 1800s
• One of the best venues in all of football
• One of the greatest trophies in all of sports
Such a shame that GameDay is not in Missoula this week
• #2 Montana v #3 Montana State
• Both with 7-0 conference records
• A storied rivalry dating to the 1800s
• One of the best venues in all of football
• One of the greatest trophies in all of sports
Such a shame that GameDay is not in Missoula this week
November 21, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Brawl of the Wild
• #2 Montana v #3 Montana State
• Both with 7-0 conference records
• A storied rivalry dating to the 1800s
• One of the best venues in all of football
• One of the greatest trophies in all of sports
Such a shame that GameDay is not in Missoula this week
• #2 Montana v #3 Montana State
• Both with 7-0 conference records
• A storied rivalry dating to the 1800s
• One of the best venues in all of football
• One of the greatest trophies in all of sports
Such a shame that GameDay is not in Missoula this week
Trump calls a reporter “insubordinate” and “a terrible person” after she asks a question about Epstein. I’m not going to say what the question was because I think it’s worth turning up the volume to hear for yourself.
November 18, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Trump calls a reporter “insubordinate” and “a terrible person” after she asks a question about Epstein. I’m not going to say what the question was because I think it’s worth turning up the volume to hear for yourself.
🚨Job alert🚨
Come be my editor and lead NYT’s national investigative coverage.
Come be my editor and lead NYT’s national investigative coverage.
November 17, 2025 at 6:30 PM
🚨Job alert🚨
Come be my editor and lead NYT’s national investigative coverage.
Come be my editor and lead NYT’s national investigative coverage.
November 12, 2025 at 2:52 PM
For what it’s worth, there was a similar reversal for Harrell in 2021. But it was slight — 2.5 points — and then reversed again.
November 11, 2025 at 2:46 AM
For what it’s worth, there was a similar reversal for Harrell in 2021. But it was slight — 2.5 points — and then reversed again.
The other challenge for Harrell: The very last votes seem to trend further left. I suspect that’s mostly due to the demographics of people who need to resolve signature challenges.
We can see right now that many of the challenged ballots are from young voters.
We can see right now that many of the challenged ballots are from young voters.
November 11, 2025 at 2:45 AM
The other challenge for Harrell: The very last votes seem to trend further left. I suspect that’s mostly due to the demographics of people who need to resolve signature challenges.
We can see right now that many of the challenged ballots are from young voters.
We can see right now that many of the challenged ballots are from young voters.
The current election has about 8,000 ballots remaining.
In 2017, the reversal meant Durkan went from losing ballot drops by ~3.5 percentage points to gaining by ~2.5 — a swing of 6.
Harrell needs a larger reversal than that. He’s losing batches by 11.4 percentage points now.
In 2017, the reversal meant Durkan went from losing ballot drops by ~3.5 percentage points to gaining by ~2.5 — a swing of 6.
Harrell needs a larger reversal than that. He’s losing batches by 11.4 percentage points now.
November 11, 2025 at 2:45 AM
The current election has about 8,000 ballots remaining.
In 2017, the reversal meant Durkan went from losing ballot drops by ~3.5 percentage points to gaining by ~2.5 — a swing of 6.
Harrell needs a larger reversal than that. He’s losing batches by 11.4 percentage points now.
In 2017, the reversal meant Durkan went from losing ballot drops by ~3.5 percentage points to gaining by ~2.5 — a swing of 6.
Harrell needs a larger reversal than that. He’s losing batches by 11.4 percentage points now.
Here is the main reason I’d be a bit wary of calling the Seattle mayor’s race just yet.
In the 2017 race (Durkan v Moon), Durkan’s numbers got steadily worse, except for a sudden and brief reversal when there were about 7,000 votes left to count.
In the 2017 race (Durkan v Moon), Durkan’s numbers got steadily worse, except for a sudden and brief reversal when there were about 7,000 votes left to count.
November 11, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Here is the main reason I’d be a bit wary of calling the Seattle mayor’s race just yet.
In the 2017 race (Durkan v Moon), Durkan’s numbers got steadily worse, except for a sudden and brief reversal when there were about 7,000 votes left to count.
In the 2017 race (Durkan v Moon), Durkan’s numbers got steadily worse, except for a sudden and brief reversal when there were about 7,000 votes left to count.
Many of the ballots that have been held up due to signature issues are from young voters. So getting those resolved could give her a further boost.
November 11, 2025 at 12:19 AM
Many of the ballots that have been held up due to signature issues are from young voters. So getting those resolved could give her a further boost.
Here is the chart of the changing vote tallies so far. As expected from last week, Wilson needed to gain about 55% of the late votes to surpass Harrell. She got 55.6% of those tallied today.
November 11, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Here is the chart of the changing vote tallies so far. As expected from last week, Wilson needed to gain about 55% of the late votes to surpass Harrell. She got 55.6% of those tallied today.
Incredible. Progressive challenger Katie Wilson now has a 91-vote lead in Seattle’s race for mayor. She had been steadily gaining on incumbent Bruce Harrell.
There are about 8,000 ballots left to count.
There are about 8,000 ballots left to count.
November 10, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Incredible. Progressive challenger Katie Wilson now has a 91-vote lead in Seattle’s race for mayor. She had been steadily gaining on incumbent Bruce Harrell.
There are about 8,000 ballots left to count.
There are about 8,000 ballots left to count.
Late update on Seattle mayor's race: The county says they have 277,881 on-time ballots for the city.
That means 44,985 left to count. But:
• Some will have signature issues
• ~1.5% of voters are not making a choice in the race
So I would expect 270-275k total votes for mayor
That means 44,985 left to count. But:
• Some will have signature issues
• ~1.5% of voters are not making a choice in the race
So I would expect 270-275k total votes for mayor
November 8, 2025 at 2:09 AM
Late update on Seattle mayor's race: The county says they have 277,881 on-time ballots for the city.
That means 44,985 left to count. But:
• Some will have signature issues
• ~1.5% of voters are not making a choice in the race
So I would expect 270-275k total votes for mayor
That means 44,985 left to count. But:
• Some will have signature issues
• ~1.5% of voters are not making a choice in the race
So I would expect 270-275k total votes for mayor
UPDATE: The elections department says they counted more than expected today, so there are now only an estimated 45,000 votes left to count for the mayor's race.
As a result, Wilson needs to maintain that ~55% level to catch up.
Updated chart:
As a result, Wilson needs to maintain that ~55% level to catch up.
Updated chart:
November 7, 2025 at 11:57 PM
UPDATE: The elections department says they counted more than expected today, so there are now only an estimated 45,000 votes left to count for the mayor's race.
As a result, Wilson needs to maintain that ~55% level to catch up.
Updated chart:
As a result, Wilson needs to maintain that ~55% level to catch up.
Updated chart:
‼️👀‼️
With today’s ballots, Seattle’s race for mayor has narrowed even further (50.7% to 48.9%).
Progressive challenger Katie Wilson got 55% of today’s votes. There are roughly 55,000 ballots left to count. She needs ~54% of the remainder to surpass incumbent Bruce Harrell.
With today’s ballots, Seattle’s race for mayor has narrowed even further (50.7% to 48.9%).
Progressive challenger Katie Wilson got 55% of today’s votes. There are roughly 55,000 ballots left to count. She needs ~54% of the remainder to surpass incumbent Bruce Harrell.
November 7, 2025 at 11:48 PM
‼️👀‼️
With today’s ballots, Seattle’s race for mayor has narrowed even further (50.7% to 48.9%).
Progressive challenger Katie Wilson got 55% of today’s votes. There are roughly 55,000 ballots left to count. She needs ~54% of the remainder to surpass incumbent Bruce Harrell.
With today’s ballots, Seattle’s race for mayor has narrowed even further (50.7% to 48.9%).
Progressive challenger Katie Wilson got 55% of today’s votes. There are roughly 55,000 ballots left to count. She needs ~54% of the remainder to surpass incumbent Bruce Harrell.
Last year, Meta's internal documents projected that it would get $16 billion in annual revenue from running ads for scams and banned goods.
via Reuters
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
via Reuters
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
November 7, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Last year, Meta's internal documents projected that it would get $16 billion in annual revenue from running ads for scams and banned goods.
via Reuters
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
via Reuters
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
Here is a look at how the 2021 count unfolded.
Harrell's daily proportions for the first five drops went 65%, 62%, 54%, 49%, then 50%. This time he has gone from 53%, then 57%, now 48%.
Harrell's daily proportions for the first five drops went 65%, 62%, 54%, 49%, then 50%. This time he has gone from 53%, then 57%, now 48%.
November 7, 2025 at 12:21 AM
Here is a look at how the 2021 count unfolded.
Harrell's daily proportions for the first five drops went 65%, 62%, 54%, 49%, then 50%. This time he has gone from 53%, then 57%, now 48%.
Harrell's daily proportions for the first five drops went 65%, 62%, 54%, 49%, then 50%. This time he has gone from 53%, then 57%, now 48%.
‼️ Seattle’s race for mayor is going to be *very* close ‼️
Bruce Harrell has a 5.7-point advantage. But with roughly 100,000 votes left to count, the numbers are shifting toward progressive challenger Katie Wilson. She took 51.6% of the votes tallied today.
The trendlines:
Bruce Harrell has a 5.7-point advantage. But with roughly 100,000 votes left to count, the numbers are shifting toward progressive challenger Katie Wilson. She took 51.6% of the votes tallied today.
The trendlines:
November 6, 2025 at 11:53 PM
‼️ Seattle’s race for mayor is going to be *very* close ‼️
Bruce Harrell has a 5.7-point advantage. But with roughly 100,000 votes left to count, the numbers are shifting toward progressive challenger Katie Wilson. She took 51.6% of the votes tallied today.
The trendlines:
Bruce Harrell has a 5.7-point advantage. But with roughly 100,000 votes left to count, the numbers are shifting toward progressive challenger Katie Wilson. She took 51.6% of the votes tallied today.
The trendlines:
Later ballots in Seattle generally swing left, shifting the margins of some races by more than double digits.
I just went back to look at the 2021 race. Harrell started losing ground on day 2. This time, he gained, so it's possible his numbers could be more resilient this time.
I just went back to look at the 2021 race. Harrell started losing ground on day 2. This time, he gained, so it's possible his numbers could be more resilient this time.
November 6, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Later ballots in Seattle generally swing left, shifting the margins of some races by more than double digits.
I just went back to look at the 2021 race. Harrell started losing ground on day 2. This time, he gained, so it's possible his numbers could be more resilient this time.
I just went back to look at the 2021 race. Harrell started losing ground on day 2. This time, he gained, so it's possible his numbers could be more resilient this time.
Oh wow, a bit of a surprise in the new ballots that just posted from the Seattle mayor's race.
Bruce Harrell has actually expanded his lead. He got nearly 57% of the ballots counted today, expanding his lead to 8 points.
But lots of votes remaining to count.
Bruce Harrell has actually expanded his lead. He got nearly 57% of the ballots counted today, expanding his lead to 8 points.
But lots of votes remaining to count.
November 6, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Oh wow, a bit of a surprise in the new ballots that just posted from the Seattle mayor's race.
Bruce Harrell has actually expanded his lead. He got nearly 57% of the ballots counted today, expanding his lead to 8 points.
But lots of votes remaining to count.
Bruce Harrell has actually expanded his lead. He got nearly 57% of the ballots counted today, expanding his lead to 8 points.
But lots of votes remaining to count.
Here is an example of how much each ballot count can differ from early returns. In 2019, Kshama Sawant was losing by about 9 percentage points but then was winning later ballots by about 20 percentage points.
6/7
6/7
November 5, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Here is an example of how much each ballot count can differ from early returns. In 2019, Kshama Sawant was losing by about 9 percentage points but then was winning later ballots by about 20 percentage points.
6/7
6/7
Seattle elections have long seen the same pattern: Late votes trend much further left. In 2021, Harrell had a 29.6-point lead on election night but finished days later with only a 17.4-point win.
2/7
2/7
November 5, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Seattle elections have long seen the same pattern: Late votes trend much further left. In 2021, Harrell had a 29.6-point lead on election night but finished days later with only a 17.4-point win.
2/7
2/7
Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell has a 7-percentage-point lead (53.3% to 46.2%) over progressive challenger Katie Wilson.
But there is a very good chance he will end up losing.
🧵 1/7
But there is a very good chance he will end up losing.
🧵 1/7
November 5, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell has a 7-percentage-point lead (53.3% to 46.2%) over progressive challenger Katie Wilson.
But there is a very good chance he will end up losing.
🧵 1/7
But there is a very good chance he will end up losing.
🧵 1/7
it's cool to see that this game's starting pitcher is still hanging in there
October 28, 2025 at 6:32 AM
it's cool to see that this game's starting pitcher is still hanging in there
Steve Bannon insists that Trump *will* serve a third term, despite the clear wording of the 22nd Amendment.
"At the appropriate time, we'll lay out what the plan is. There is a plan," Bannon says.
via The Economist
"At the appropriate time, we'll lay out what the plan is. There is a plan," Bannon says.
via The Economist
October 23, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Steve Bannon insists that Trump *will* serve a third term, despite the clear wording of the 22nd Amendment.
"At the appropriate time, we'll lay out what the plan is. There is a plan," Bannon says.
via The Economist
"At the appropriate time, we'll lay out what the plan is. There is a plan," Bannon says.
via The Economist