Michael R Strain
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michaelrstrain.bsky.social
Michael R Strain
@michaelrstrain.bsky.social
3.8K followers 150 following 400 posts
Director of Economic Policy Studies and Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Professor of Practice at Georgetown University.
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Reposted by Michael R Strain
aaronsojourner.org
How does employer access to prisoners’ labor through work release impact the well-being of those workers & of free workers?

New working paper by Sue Helper, Suresh Naidu, Akseli Palomaki, Adam Reich, + me provides evidence, focus on auto manufacturing in AL
#EconSky
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Coercion and Monopsony in Modern American Manufacturing: Evidence from Alabama Prison Labor Susan Helper Suresh Naidu Akseli Palomaki Adam Reich Aaron Sojourner We study coercion and monopsony in contemporary U.S. manufacturing labor markets. We combine administrative data from the Alabama Department of Corrections work release program with a unique survey of workers in the Alabama auto supply chain where workers report their work-release status. We first present descriptive patterns of work-release labor, finding that the use of incarcerated (i.e., work-release) labor is concentrated in the auto supply industry, especially in the Montgomery area, where Hyundai’s assembly plant is located. In the survey, the share of plant-level workers who are incarcerated is negatively correlated with non-incarcerated wages. The survey also enables estimation of hypothetical quit elasticities separately among incarcerated and non-incarcerated workers. Incarcerated workers are estimated to have quit elasticities less than half that of non-incarcerated workers. Because Alabama law requires employers to pay the same wage to incarcerated and non-incarcerated workers in the same jobs, the additional monopsony power introduced by employer access to incarcerated workers creates an incentive and ability for employers to reduce plant-level wages to, and employment of, non-incarcerated workers. We build a quantitative model of firm-specific labor supply that, for incarcerated workers, distinguishes the roles of coercion (the risk of physical harm in prison from not working), wage garnishment that blunts the consumption effect of higher wages, and monopsony (limited mobility across employers). Using it, we estimate effects on free and incarcerated workers’ welfare from i) reforming prison conditions to eliminate violence, ii) eliminating prison labor wage garnishment, iii) imposing a $15 minimum wage, &iv) abolishing prison labor. Free worker welfare goes up in all scenarios...
November 3, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
projectsyndicate.bsky.social
The cost of health care is one of the biggest problems facing the US government. But extending the expiring subsidies will make health care more expensive, not less, observes @michaelrstrain.bsky.social.
bit.ly/3JdNBrU
The Problem with America’s Health-Care Subsidies
Michael R. Strain thinks the enhanced measures – a temporary salve enacted during the pandemic – should be allowed to expire.
bit.ly
October 17, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
smerconish.bsky.social
Michael sits down with Dr. @michaelrstrain.bsky.social to challenge the idea that the American Dream is out of reach. Is homeownership essential to success? Does hard work still pay off? And are our expectations part of the problem?
Listen to the #podcast here 🎧➡️ loom.ly/7l3hQnE
October 6, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
cepr.org
@michaelrstrain.bsky.social explored this topic in a recent column for VoxEU. He argues US manufacturing is not in crisis and manufacturing jobs do not deserve special attention. A trade war is likely to decrease employment in the sector rather than increase it.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
October 8, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
projectsyndicate.bsky.social
The Federal Reserve's case for beginning a monetary-easing cycle this month rests on three judgments. But it is off base on all three, writes @michaelrstrain.bsky.social of the American Enterprise Institute. bit.ly/3VnFsnf
The Fed’s Wrong Move
Michael R. Strain argues that US interest-rate cuts this year will have to be reversed in 2026, as inflation re-accelerates.
bit.ly
September 18, 2025 at 11:51 AM
michaelrstrain.bsky.social
I enjoyed talking yesterday with @jdickerson.bsky.social on CBS Evening News Plus about the jobs report, the overall economy, and the Fed.

www.cbsnews.com/video/95-cbs... #econsky @cbseveningnews.bsky.social
9/5: CBS Evening News Plus
A possible upside to August's slowing job growth; Reporter's Notebook: Can a manufacturing renaissance deliver for workers?
www.cbsnews.com
September 6, 2025 at 1:53 PM
michaelrstrain.bsky.social
Trump is hostile to the Fed’s independence. He wants to bend the central bank to his will. He is willing to threaten officials with criminal prosecution to get his way. We are in dangerous territory.

My @nationalreview.bsky.social column.

www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-s... #econsky
The Senate Must Preserve Fed Independence | National Review
Whether Lisa Cook stays or goes, the Senate must confirm only Fed governors who are independent of partisan politics and of the president.
www.nationalreview.com
August 26, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
voxeu.org
Summarising his chapter from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the 2nd Trump administration, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social‬ argues that American #manufacturing is not in crisis and the #trade war is likely to decrease manufacturing employment.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph of the top countries' manufacturing production in billions of 2015 constant dollars. The two most prominent arguments President Trump has advanced for his trade war – both during the early months of his second term, and for decades prior – are that protectionism will reduce the trade deficit and increase manufacturing employment. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump administration, argues that American manufacturing is not in crisis and manufacturing jobs do not deserve special attention, and that the trade war is likely to decrease manufacturing employment rather than increase it.
August 26, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
toddntucker.com
What to make of the latest news that the US government is converting its billions in grants to Intel into equity shares?

@novasafo.bsky.social has the story @marketplace.org with comments from me @michaelrstrain.bsky.social and others.
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...
Why Intel warns that government stake may hurt shareholders
Washington’s investment may well come with unintended consequences.
www.marketplace.org
August 26, 2025 at 11:35 AM
michaelrstrain.bsky.social
Trump’s decision to take an equity stake in Intel is astonishing and troubling. His recent deal with Nvidia and AMD suggests security concerns are being used by the president as a fig leaf for rank corporate shakedowns.

My @financialtimes.com column.

Link: www.ft.com/content/2ddb... #econsky
Trump’s Intel deal is a threat to US economic liberty
Taking unnecessary equity stakes in private companies is opportunism — not strategic state capitalism
www.ft.com
August 25, 2025 at 7:55 PM
michaelrstrain.bsky.social
I'm proud to work with WorkRise and I am proud of the work WorkRise is doing to advance economic mobility for low-wage workers. Please take a minute for this survey.

Link: urban.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

#econsky
Research-Informed Action for Low Wage Worker Mobility
This survey is a fieldwide effort to hear directly from practitioners, employers, policymakers, researchers, and funders about where evidence is most urgently needed. The goal is to benefit the entire...
urban.co1.qualtrics.com
August 21, 2025 at 12:26 AM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
laurenhlb.bsky.social
Take a moment to read this by @michaelrstrain.bsky.social on BLS yes, but also on integrity.

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...

#EconSky
Trump Must Appoint a Nonpartisan Statistics Chief
Michael R. Strain explains why a robust economy depends on public confidence in the integrity of official data.
www.project-syndicate.org
August 6, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
toddntucker.com
The chaos of Trump's sticks, coupled with the absence of carrots, is not on track to set up a manufacturing renaissance, reports @greenhousenyt.bsky.social, with comment from @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @drodrik.bsky.social Ann Harrison , Sue Helper, and me.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Trump’s promise of a US manufacturing renaissance leaves experts scratching their heads
Economists doubt US duties will bring about a resurgence of US factory jobs, notably due to Trump’s erratic tariff rollout
www.theguardian.com
August 18, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
ericagroshen.bsky.social
"The Bureau of Labor Statistics shall also collect, collate, report and publish at least once per month full and complete statistics on the volume of and changes in employment, as indicated by the number of people employed, the total wages paid, and the total hours of employment."
US law--1913, 1930
August 13, 2025 at 12:18 AM
michaelrstrain.bsky.social
1/ On @marketplace.org, I argue that private-sector data are a valuable compliment to government data, but are *not* a substitute for government data, like those produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0... #econsky
With Trump taking aim at government economic data, what other sources can businesses turn to?
There are private firms that offer specialized economic data, but they're not always as comprehensive as government sources.
www.marketplace.org
August 15, 2025 at 1:54 PM
michaelrstrain.bsky.social
#econsky
projectsyndicate.bsky.social Project Syndicate @projectsyndicate.bsky.social · Aug 6
Donald Trump should think twice before attempting to install a lackey at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, because undermining trust in government data could have cascading effects throughout the US economy, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social argues.
Trump Must Appoint a Nonpartisan Statistics Chief
Michael R. Strain explains why a robust economy depends on public confidence in the integrity of official data.
www.project-syndicate.org
August 6, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
projectsyndicate.bsky.social
Donald Trump should think twice before attempting to install a lackey at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, because undermining trust in government data could have cascading effects throughout the US economy, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social argues.
Trump Must Appoint a Nonpartisan Statistics Chief
Michael R. Strain explains why a robust economy depends on public confidence in the integrity of official data.
www.project-syndicate.org
August 6, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
jacobbogage.bsky.social
Trump fired the official in charge of collecting basic statistics about the US economy.

He's risking material harm to the economy by politicizing routine data reports, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social tells me.

www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Staffing shortages at the bureau are already fueling questions about the agency’s ability to accurately tabulate data on consumer prices. “The president is risking material economic harm through his politicization of the BLS and of official government data,” said Michael Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, who worked with McEntarfer in the early 2010s at the U.S. Census Bureau. “It is imperative that businesses, households and investors believe that official government data are accurate and do not reflect any political bias,” Strain said. “Fortunately, that is true of the data, but by sewing doubt, President Trump is undermining the integrity of the information that businesses, investors and households rely on.”
August 1, 2025 at 8:24 PM
michaelrstrain.bsky.social
Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased.

#econsky
August 1, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
projectsyndicate.bsky.social
Even if Donald Trump doesn’t make good on his threat to fire the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, his actions could significantly erode the central bank’s independence.

Read more in a new PS Big Picture, with @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, Harold James, and others. bit.ly/3U8OKmr
August 1, 2025 at 9:48 AM
michaelrstrain.bsky.social
Strain said maintaining the quality and integrity of federal economic data “is something that I am very concerned about. High-quality government data is extremely important to financial markets, business decisions, households’ decisions.”

www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0... #econsky
Federal data has been disappearing under Trump
There’s been a “targeted, surgical removal of data sets, or elements of data sets, that are not aligned with the administration’s priorities,” said Denice Ross at the Federation of American Scientists...
www.marketplace.org
July 28, 2025 at 7:42 PM
michaelrstrain.bsky.social
#econsky
koenfucius.bsky.social koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · Jul 2
Horseshoe theory suggests the far left and the far right converge toward each other.

We see this played out in the way populists on both sides wallow in, and amplify bad news.

Ignore their calls, advise Clifford Asness & @michaelrstrain.bsky.social in @thefp.com:

buff.ly/gzHrIfm
July 28, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Reposted by Michael R Strain
michaelrstrain.bsky.social
3/ My friends, the American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It)!

Read about why: www.amazon.com/American-Dre... #econsky
The American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It) (New Threats to Freedom Series)
The American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It) (New Threats to Freedom Series) [Strain, Michael R.] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It) (New Threats to Freedom Series)
www.amazon.com
July 17, 2025 at 6:57 PM
michaelrstrain.bsky.social
1/ I really enjoyed this conversation with Ipsos Ipsos in US about the American Dream. As I told Mr. Carmichael, my belief in the health of the American Dream has only strengthened in recent years.

#econsky
Why higher education remains a key driver of the American Dream
Michael Strain, director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, explains why higher education and entrepreneurship will still drive upward mobility in the U.S.
www.ipsos.com
July 17, 2025 at 6:57 PM
michaelrstrain.bsky.social
"Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries?"

Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine present important evidence on their research question, but also on economic methodology. See below for issues all empirical economists should be thinking about. Link to paper: www.nber.org/papers/w33989 #econsky
July 11, 2025 at 2:26 PM