Michel Estefan
@mestefan.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Teaching & Director of Undergraduate Studies, Dept. of Sociology, University of California, San Diego. Views are my own.
Equity vs. information: How do we balance the need for valid information about academic preparation with equally pressing commitments to access, opportunity, and fairness?
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Equity vs. information: How do we balance the need for valid information about academic preparation with equally pressing commitments to access, opportunity, and fairness?
Alternative metrics: If not the SAT, then what? What other tools can reliably capture foundational math competencies before students hit early STEM sequences? And do those tools have better distributional properties? Clearly, high school GPAs aren’t cutting it in the UCSD case.
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Alternative metrics: If not the SAT, then what? What other tools can reliably capture foundational math competencies before students hit early STEM sequences? And do those tools have better distributional properties? Clearly, high school GPAs aren’t cutting it in the UCSD case.
And a UCSD-specific addendum: When UCSD answers this question, should it think of itself in isolation or as part of the three tier CA public higher ed system (UC, CSU, Community Colleges)?
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
And a UCSD-specific addendum: When UCSD answers this question, should it think of itself in isolation or as part of the three tier CA public higher ed system (UC, CSU, Community Colleges)?
Institutional capacity: Even if the SAT provides useful information about foundational skills, how many students with low math preparation can a given institution realistically support well? How should universities think about capacity, equity, support structures, and resource constraints?
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Institutional capacity: Even if the SAT provides useful information about foundational skills, how many students with low math preparation can a given institution realistically support well? How should universities think about capacity, equity, support structures, and resource constraints?
What does that tell us about the environments they’re entering, the support they receive, or the obstacles they face?
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
What does that tell us about the environments they’re entering, the support they receive, or the obstacles they face?
Predictive patterns: Why does the SAT sometimes overpredict the first-year math performance of Black, Latino, and working-class students—meaning it predicts they’ll do better than they actually do once in college?
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Predictive patterns: Why does the SAT sometimes overpredict the first-year math performance of Black, Latino, and working-class students—meaning it predicts they’ll do better than they actually do once in college?
Importantly, what implications should origin stories have for contemporary policy?
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Importantly, what implications should origin stories have for contemporary policy?
Historical origins: The test’s origins and early history lie in eugenics and IQ sorting. But the contemporary SAT—psychometrically and content-wise—is a very different instrument. I want to know more about how this history unfolded.
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Historical origins: The test’s origins and early history lie in eugenics and IQ sorting. But the contemporary SAT—psychometrically and content-wise—is a very different instrument. I want to know more about how this history unfolded.
Anyway, this is what I’ve learned so far.
Here are a few more questions I’m digging into—questions that in some ways are much harder and messier to answer:
Here are a few more questions I’m digging into—questions that in some ways are much harder and messier to answer:
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Anyway, this is what I’ve learned so far.
Here are a few more questions I’m digging into—questions that in some ways are much harder and messier to answer:
Here are a few more questions I’m digging into—questions that in some ways are much harder and messier to answer:
But the evidence that the character and design of SAT questions is intrinsically biased—above and beyond class—seems comparatively weak.
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
But the evidence that the character and design of SAT questions is intrinsically biased—above and beyond class—seems comparatively weak.
And depending on how serious the gaps are, even strong college pedagogy may not fully close them.
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
And depending on how serious the gaps are, even strong college pedagogy may not fully close them.
The deeper issue is structural. Quantitative reasoning is a nested set of competencies built cumulatively over many years. A high school test-prep course can’t manufacture the kind of durable math foundation that emerges from long-term, concerted cultivation.
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
The deeper issue is structural. Quantitative reasoning is a nested set of competencies built cumulatively over many years. A high school test-prep course can’t manufacture the kind of durable math foundation that emerges from long-term, concerted cultivation.
The evidence linking class and SAT scores is strong. No surprise there. And I don’t think it’s mainly about who can pay for test-prep courses. If that were the problem, we could solve it cheaply.
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
The evidence linking class and SAT scores is strong. No surprise there. And I don’t think it’s mainly about who can pay for test-prep courses. If that were the problem, we could solve it cheaply.
And just to further appease the critics: yes, I know—validity ≠ fairness. Predictive validity tells us what the test measures—not whether it should be used for admissions.
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
And just to further appease the critics: yes, I know—validity ≠ fairness. Predictive validity tells us what the test measures—not whether it should be used for admissions.
And look, I know—you might still have a hundred reasons to oppose its reintroduction. Totally fair. Still, this is a question worth answering.
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
And look, I know—you might still have a hundred reasons to oppose its reintroduction. Totally fair. Still, this is a question worth answering.
But it is not a comprehensive assessment of a person’s overall mathematical ability, conceptual depth, or higher-order reasoning.
It’s a good floor, not a ceiling. It tells you whether a student has the basics—not how far they can go.
It’s a good floor, not a ceiling. It tells you whether a student has the basics—not how far they can go.
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
But it is not a comprehensive assessment of a person’s overall mathematical ability, conceptual depth, or higher-order reasoning.
It’s a good floor, not a ceiling. It tells you whether a student has the basics—not how far they can go.
It’s a good floor, not a ceiling. It tells you whether a student has the basics—not how far they can go.
From what I can tell so far, the answer seems to be something like this:
The SAT is a reasonably accurate measure of foundational math competencies—the stuff that matters for early college math courses.
The SAT is a reasonably accurate measure of foundational math competencies—the stuff that matters for early college math courses.
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
From what I can tell so far, the answer seems to be something like this:
The SAT is a reasonably accurate measure of foundational math competencies—the stuff that matters for early college math courses.
The SAT is a reasonably accurate measure of foundational math competencies—the stuff that matters for early college math courses.
There are a million angles here, but one basic question we need to try to answer is this: Is the SAT a reasonably valid indicator of a person’s math competencies? (Emphasis on the “reasonably valid” in a statistical sense.)
November 27, 2025 at 2:27 PM
There are a million angles here, but one basic question we need to try to answer is this: Is the SAT a reasonably valid indicator of a person’s math competencies? (Emphasis on the “reasonably valid” in a statistical sense.)
In other words, those who are confidently wrong are both loud about it and willing to bet on their views (and lose every time).
November 26, 2025 at 10:21 PM
In other words, those who are confidently wrong are both loud about it and willing to bet on their views (and lose every time).
…results indicate that those with the highest levels of opposition have the lowest levels of objective knowledge but the highest levels of subjective knowledge.”
November 26, 2025 at 10:21 PM
…results indicate that those with the highest levels of opposition have the lowest levels of objective knowledge but the highest levels of subjective knowledge.”