Matt Whittaker
@mattwhittaker.bsky.social
Chief exec at PBE (Pro Bono Economics). Previously at Resolution Foundation. Inequalities-focused economist, cinephile, football coach (Fishersgate Flyers u17s), player (Sweet FA) and fan (Spurs & Stockport County).
The brilliant 808 State tonight
September 6, 2025 at 12:31 AM
The brilliant 808 State tonight
In terms of absolute numbers of adverts recorded in the most recent period, caring openings dominate, with IT, food preparation, maintenance, admin and service roles also featuring at the top of the list. Full data (including split by local authority) posted here www.ons.gov.uk/releases/lab...
August 29, 2025 at 3:57 PM
In terms of absolute numbers of adverts recorded in the most recent period, caring openings dominate, with IT, food preparation, maintenance, admin and service roles also featuring at the top of the list. Full data (including split by local authority) posted here www.ons.gov.uk/releases/lab...
Lots of reasons to tread carefully with this ONS data on online adverts, but it’s an interesting glimpse of some potential post-Covid changes in the jobs market. Biggest increase in adverts come in care and health (human & animal) occupations, and baristas. Some big drops in personal services and IT
August 29, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Lots of reasons to tread carefully with this ONS data on online adverts, but it’s an interesting glimpse of some potential post-Covid changes in the jobs market. Biggest increase in adverts come in care and health (human & animal) occupations, and baristas. Some big drops in personal services and IT
Overall, we still overwhelmingly want to maintain or increase tax and spending. But we’re increasingly reluctant to draw more income from middle income households (even as their tax rates have fallen). And a tax-the-rich strategy is also less popular than it once was (not to mention hard to deliver)
August 26, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Overall, we still overwhelmingly want to maintain or increase tax and spending. But we’re increasingly reluctant to draw more income from middle income households (even as their tax rates have fallen). And a tax-the-rich strategy is also less popular than it once was (not to mention hard to deliver)
All of this is especially interesting when set against what’s happened over this period to actual average tax rates (both direct and indirect) for each group. Rates have increased a small amount for the richest, risen more marginally for the poorest, and fallen steadily for those in the middle
August 26, 2025 at 5:59 PM
All of this is especially interesting when set against what’s happened over this period to actual average tax rates (both direct and indirect) for each group. Rates have increased a small amount for the richest, risen more marginally for the poorest, and fallen steadily for those in the middle
Think this is fascinating. We continue to think that higher income people are taxed too little and lower income people are taxed too much, but much less than we used to. And our Goldilocks position on middle income tax levels has also shifted, with more now thinking tax is too high for this group
August 26, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Think this is fascinating. We continue to think that higher income people are taxed too little and lower income people are taxed too much, but much less than we used to. And our Goldilocks position on middle income tax levels has also shifted, with more now thinking tax is too high for this group
And the proportion of people reporting an increased need to lean on credit to get by remains elevated, with signs of further increases over the last six months or so
August 22, 2025 at 1:03 PM
And the proportion of people reporting an increased need to lean on credit to get by remains elevated, with signs of further increases over the last six months or so
Difficulties reflected in increases in the number of individuals approaching Citizens Advice for support with debt issues too. No surprise the number climbed through the cost-of-living crisis and as interest rates rose, but already elevated demand has drifted further up over the last 12 months too
August 22, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Difficulties reflected in increases in the number of individuals approaching Citizens Advice for support with debt issues too. No surprise the number climbed through the cost-of-living crisis and as interest rates rose, but already elevated demand has drifted further up over the last 12 months too
Following this week’s jump in inflation, new ONS data on direct debit failure rates provide another reminder of the financial difficulties being faced by a growing minority of households. Meeting mortgage payments is clearly being prioritised, but missed loan and utility payments continue to rise
August 22, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Following this week’s jump in inflation, new ONS data on direct debit failure rates provide another reminder of the financial difficulties being faced by a growing minority of households. Meeting mortgage payments is clearly being prioritised, but missed loan and utility payments continue to rise
Bringing those two things together, it’s noticeable that those (relatively few) lower income households who ARE saving more than usual are more likely than higher income counterparts to be driven by precaution than by taking advantage of higher interest rates or saving for nice things
August 14, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Bringing those two things together, it’s noticeable that those (relatively few) lower income households who ARE saving more than usual are more likely than higher income counterparts to be driven by precaution than by taking advantage of higher interest rates or saving for nice things
That matters from a macro perspective because of the divergence in financial conditions across the income distribution. Higher income households are feeling ok in the main (net balance of 29% in the top fifth expect their circumstances to improve) while lower income outlooks remain v uncertain
August 14, 2025 at 9:46 AM
That matters from a macro perspective because of the divergence in financial conditions across the income distribution. Higher income households are feeling ok in the main (net balance of 29% in the top fifth expect their circumstances to improve) while lower income outlooks remain v uncertain
And crucially, all this is far from evenly distributed of course. Older and richer households tended to build the biggest lockdown savings, and those at the top of the income distribution continue to be the ones most likely to report saving more than usual in the current year
August 14, 2025 at 9:46 AM
And crucially, all this is far from evenly distributed of course. Older and richer households tended to build the biggest lockdown savings, and those at the top of the income distribution continue to be the ones most likely to report saving more than usual in the current year
So we’ve seen very little spending down of the huge ‘excess’ savings built up by households during lockdown and which we thought might fuel an economic rebound. It remains vast in principle, but much of this excess is no longer available for spending - used to pay down debts and build assets instead
August 14, 2025 at 9:46 AM
So we’ve seen very little spending down of the huge ‘excess’ savings built up by households during lockdown and which we thought might fuel an economic rebound. It remains vast in principle, but much of this excess is no longer available for spending - used to pay down debts and build assets instead
Of course, the gap that opened up between income and consumption at the start of the pandemic was largely about lockdown reducing opportunities for spending. More recently however, the household saving ratio has climbed again due to a combination of interest rate incentives and consumer nervousness
August 14, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Of course, the gap that opened up between income and consumption at the start of the pandemic was largely about lockdown reducing opportunities for spending. More recently however, the household saving ratio has climbed again due to a combination of interest rate incentives and consumer nervousness
It’s the product of various factors, not least the sharp slowdown in income growth after 2008. But post-Covid, consumption spending has additionally failed to keep pace with incomes. On a per capita basis, consumption expenditure is currently 2% lower in real-terms than on the eve of the pandemic
August 14, 2025 at 9:46 AM
It’s the product of various factors, not least the sharp slowdown in income growth after 2008. But post-Covid, consumption spending has additionally failed to keep pace with incomes. On a per capita basis, consumption expenditure is currently 2% lower in real-terms than on the eve of the pandemic
Today’s GDP figures highlight continued weakness in household consumption. In fact, the extent of the slowdown in consumption growth has been one of the most remarkable features of the last 15 years. Pre-2008, spending per person rose by ~30% every ten years. Now, the ten-year growth rate is <5%
August 14, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Today’s GDP figures highlight continued weakness in household consumption. In fact, the extent of the slowdown in consumption growth has been one of the most remarkable features of the last 15 years. Pre-2008, spending per person rose by ~30% every ten years. Now, the ten-year growth rate is <5%
Not yet found a clear chart, but this paper from @arunadvani.bsky.social et al (one of many brilliant pieces!) is a great primer. Shows the importance of definitions, with the UK quite high up the league table on some measures. This chart is revealing though static1.squarespace.com/static/5ef4d...
July 18, 2025 at 10:27 AM
Not yet found a clear chart, but this paper from @arunadvani.bsky.social et al (one of many brilliant pieces!) is a great primer. Shows the importance of definitions, with the UK quite high up the league table on some measures. This chart is revealing though static1.squarespace.com/static/5ef4d...
Go back to the original chart, and surely there's room for something more broad-based on income tax? Better than cruel/unworkable cuts to disability payments; better than fiscal rule fiddling; and better than pinning it all on new approaches that double down on a narrowing (& somewhat volatile) base
July 15, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Go back to the original chart, and surely there's room for something more broad-based on income tax? Better than cruel/unworkable cuts to disability payments; better than fiscal rule fiddling; and better than pinning it all on new approaches that double down on a narrowing (& somewhat volatile) base
Overall, changes in the tax shares of each income quintile have largely tracked their shares of original income (before benefit or State Pension payments). Means we’ve simultaneously drawn in more tax from the richest, but still ended up with rising post-tax income inequality
July 15, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Overall, changes in the tax shares of each income quintile have largely tracked their shares of original income (before benefit or State Pension payments). Means we’ve simultaneously drawn in more tax from the richest, but still ended up with rising post-tax income inequality
Of course, the other factor behind this rebalancing of the tax base is income inequality, with a rapidly growing share of gross income flowing to the richest fifth ahead of the 2008 financial crisis. This group accounted for 42.8% of all gross income in 2022-23, up from 35.4% in 1977
July 15, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Of course, the other factor behind this rebalancing of the tax base is income inequality, with a rapidly growing share of gross income flowing to the richest fifth ahead of the 2008 financial crisis. This group accounted for 42.8% of all gross income in 2022-23, up from 35.4% in 1977
Partly as a result of these changes in average effective 'rates', our total household tax take has increasingly been drawn from the richest fifth of individuals. They accounted for 36.2% of the total in 1977, but 46.8% in 2022-23. Shares from the middle of the distribution fell over the same period
July 15, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Partly as a result of these changes in average effective 'rates', our total household tax take has increasingly been drawn from the richest fifth of individuals. They accounted for 36.2% of the total in 1977, but 46.8% in 2022-23. Shares from the middle of the distribution fell over the same period
Amid wealth tax discussion, it's worth reflecting on recent changes in tax takes across the income distribution. Combining all payments (ie income taxes and VAT etc), the richest and poorest pay the most as a share of their gross income. But rates are down markedly in the middle of the distribution
July 15, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Amid wealth tax discussion, it's worth reflecting on recent changes in tax takes across the income distribution. Combining all payments (ie income taxes and VAT etc), the richest and poorest pay the most as a share of their gross income. But rates are down markedly in the middle of the distribution
Evidence from recent renter reforms in Scotland suggests they've had a positive impact on the self-reported wellbeing of tenants north of the border. Think we can be optimistic about the Renter's Rights Bill likewise being a good thing overall in England pbe.co.uk/publications...
July 10, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Evidence from recent renter reforms in Scotland suggests they've had a positive impact on the self-reported wellbeing of tenants north of the border. Think we can be optimistic about the Renter's Rights Bill likewise being a good thing overall in England pbe.co.uk/publications...
Interestingly, the research also confirms support for charities balancing front-line service support and campaigning for long term social change.
“It’s important to address immediate needs, but without tackling the root causes we’re just putting a band-aid on the issue”
“It’s important to address immediate needs, but without tackling the root causes we’re just putting a band-aid on the issue”
July 8, 2025 at 8:37 AM
Interestingly, the research also confirms support for charities balancing front-line service support and campaigning for long term social change.
“It’s important to address immediate needs, but without tackling the root causes we’re just putting a band-aid on the issue”
“It’s important to address immediate needs, but without tackling the root causes we’re just putting a band-aid on the issue”
Also shows decline in financial support for charities post-pandemic, alongside significantly rising demand for charity services. More needed and well trusted, but less well resourced: it’s not hard to see (i) why the sector is under pressure; and (ii) why we'd all benefit if it was less so
July 8, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Also shows decline in financial support for charities post-pandemic, alongside significantly rising demand for charity services. More needed and well trusted, but less well resourced: it’s not hard to see (i) why the sector is under pressure; and (ii) why we'd all benefit if it was less so