Matthew Sheffield
@matthew.flux.community
🟦 Writing and editing @flux.community
🟦 Host, Theory of Change podcast
🟦 Former TV producer and pollster
🟦 As seen in NYT, WaPo, NBC, NPR, Variety ...
New book: What Republicans Know https://flux.community/book/what-republicans-know
🟦 Host, Theory of Change podcast
🟦 Former TV producer and pollster
🟦 As seen in NYT, WaPo, NBC, NPR, Variety ...
New book: What Republicans Know https://flux.community/book/what-republicans-know
When you look at the red states, their tax systems drastically favor the rich over regular people.
Republicans want to steal your money and give it to rich people who do not contribute to society.
Right-wing tax policy is the biggest scam in history.
Republicans want to steal your money and give it to rich people who do not contribute to society.
Right-wing tax policy is the biggest scam in history.
November 9, 2025 at 7:52 PM
When you look at the red states, their tax systems drastically favor the rich over regular people.
Republicans want to steal your money and give it to rich people who do not contribute to society.
Right-wing tax policy is the biggest scam in history.
Republicans want to steal your money and give it to rich people who do not contribute to society.
Right-wing tax policy is the biggest scam in history.
Reactionaries want poverty though. It's that simple. This is why you actually see them defending Ebeneezer Scrooge every few years. They literally think there are too many useless eaters in this world.
And they showed it during Covid. They want you to die.
And they showed it during Covid. They want you to die.
November 9, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Reactionaries want poverty though. It's that simple. This is why you actually see them defending Ebeneezer Scrooge every few years. They literally think there are too many useless eaters in this world.
And they showed it during Covid. They want you to die.
And they showed it during Covid. They want you to die.
A large middle class never really existed in human history. It was created by the government in the US and every other country that has one.
Reactionaries hate this. They want most people to be poor and dependent on rich citizens or churches. Republicans have relentlessly attacked social systems.
Reactionaries hate this. They want most people to be poor and dependent on rich citizens or churches. Republicans have relentlessly attacked social systems.
November 9, 2025 at 7:27 PM
A large middle class never really existed in human history. It was created by the government in the US and every other country that has one.
Reactionaries hate this. They want most people to be poor and dependent on rich citizens or churches. Republicans have relentlessly attacked social systems.
Reactionaries hate this. They want most people to be poor and dependent on rich citizens or churches. Republicans have relentlessly attacked social systems.
🧵Donald Trump is famous for being able to manipulate his supporters' opinions. But he comes from a long line of far-right oligarchs who mask radically pro-rich policies as "populist."
The only difference between today's billionaires & earlier ones is that Peter Thiel et al say the quiet part aloud.
The only difference between today's billionaires & earlier ones is that Peter Thiel et al say the quiet part aloud.
November 9, 2025 at 7:06 PM
🧵Donald Trump is famous for being able to manipulate his supporters' opinions. But he comes from a long line of far-right oligarchs who mask radically pro-rich policies as "populist."
The only difference between today's billionaires & earlier ones is that Peter Thiel et al say the quiet part aloud.
The only difference between today's billionaires & earlier ones is that Peter Thiel et al say the quiet part aloud.
"Heady" is one of the very few words with opposite definitions.
The 3b denotation here seems to have evolved from people not understanding the word. Try "scintillating" instead, folks!
The 3b denotation here seems to have evolved from people not understanding the word. Try "scintillating" instead, folks!
November 8, 2025 at 1:45 AM
"Heady" is one of the very few words with opposite definitions.
The 3b denotation here seems to have evolved from people not understanding the word. Try "scintillating" instead, folks!
The 3b denotation here seems to have evolved from people not understanding the word. Try "scintillating" instead, folks!
Andrew Cuomo represents a shrinking coalition of rich people. Households earning more than $300k annually are the only financial demographic where he won a majority.
Zohran Mamdani won several majorities, by contrast.
(By lying about crime, AC got a small victory among the poorest NYers.)
Zohran Mamdani won several majorities, by contrast.
(By lying about crime, AC got a small victory among the poorest NYers.)
November 5, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Andrew Cuomo represents a shrinking coalition of rich people. Households earning more than $300k annually are the only financial demographic where he won a majority.
Zohran Mamdani won several majorities, by contrast.
(By lying about crime, AC got a small victory among the poorest NYers.)
Zohran Mamdani won several majorities, by contrast.
(By lying about crime, AC got a small victory among the poorest NYers.)
Wow: Peter Thiel in a private 2020 email argued that capitalism has failed young Americans, and so this is why they have become socialist.
This is almost literally Zohran Mamdani's campaign message.
The email was posted to Xitter by his friend VC Chamath Palihapitiya.
This is almost literally Zohran Mamdani's campaign message.
The email was posted to Xitter by his friend VC Chamath Palihapitiya.
November 5, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Wow: Peter Thiel in a private 2020 email argued that capitalism has failed young Americans, and so this is why they have become socialist.
This is almost literally Zohran Mamdani's campaign message.
The email was posted to Xitter by his friend VC Chamath Palihapitiya.
This is almost literally Zohran Mamdani's campaign message.
The email was posted to Xitter by his friend VC Chamath Palihapitiya.
Whether it's Latinos turning against Republicans or Trump being the only Republican some people will support, the party has a huge problem on its hands since he won't be on the ballot again.
Greg Abbott is reportedly worried about Texas's redistricting. plus.flux.community/p/3-key-take...
Greg Abbott is reportedly worried about Texas's redistricting. plus.flux.community/p/3-key-take...
November 5, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Whether it's Latinos turning against Republicans or Trump being the only Republican some people will support, the party has a huge problem on its hands since he won't be on the ballot again.
Greg Abbott is reportedly worried about Texas's redistricting. plus.flux.community/p/3-key-take...
Greg Abbott is reportedly worried about Texas's redistricting. plus.flux.community/p/3-key-take...
2) Hispanics appear to be turning on the Republican party.
Donald Trump won nearly 50% last year. Last night though, Hispanic citizens were voting for Democrats at margins exactly similar to how they've done in years past, even in years where a Democrat lost.
Donald Trump won nearly 50% last year. Last night though, Hispanic citizens were voting for Democrats at margins exactly similar to how they've done in years past, even in years where a Democrat lost.
November 5, 2025 at 11:11 AM
2) Hispanics appear to be turning on the Republican party.
Donald Trump won nearly 50% last year. Last night though, Hispanic citizens were voting for Democrats at margins exactly similar to how they've done in years past, even in years where a Democrat lost.
Donald Trump won nearly 50% last year. Last night though, Hispanic citizens were voting for Democrats at margins exactly similar to how they've done in years past, even in years where a Democrat lost.
Despite having different ideologies, all three major candidates—Abigail Spanberger, Mikie Sherrill, and Zohran Mamdani—were laser-focused on how Donald Trump has damaged Americans' lives and how they'd fix things.
And all 3 also rejected establishment Democrats' advice to abandon trans people.
And all 3 also rejected establishment Democrats' advice to abandon trans people.
November 5, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Despite having different ideologies, all three major candidates—Abigail Spanberger, Mikie Sherrill, and Zohran Mamdani—were laser-focused on how Donald Trump has damaged Americans' lives and how they'd fix things.
And all 3 also rejected establishment Democrats' advice to abandon trans people.
And all 3 also rejected establishment Democrats' advice to abandon trans people.
Warning, infographic nerd complaint ahead:
In the leftmost column, both candidates have white text and party-colored backgrounds.
In the 2nd-to-left column, the bg is white and text is party colored.
In 3-5 columns, the winner is party bg with white text, and loser is white bg with party text
In the leftmost column, both candidates have white text and party-colored backgrounds.
In the 2nd-to-left column, the bg is white and text is party colored.
In 3-5 columns, the winner is party bg with white text, and loser is white bg with party text
November 5, 2025 at 5:06 AM
Warning, infographic nerd complaint ahead:
In the leftmost column, both candidates have white text and party-colored backgrounds.
In the 2nd-to-left column, the bg is white and text is party colored.
In 3-5 columns, the winner is party bg with white text, and loser is white bg with party text
In the leftmost column, both candidates have white text and party-colored backgrounds.
In the 2nd-to-left column, the bg is white and text is party colored.
In 3-5 columns, the winner is party bg with white text, and loser is white bg with party text
Getting ready to tap my sign
November 5, 2025 at 4:00 AM
Getting ready to tap my sign
That's supposed to be Mark Halperin in the middle there lol
November 5, 2025 at 2:14 AM
That's supposed to be Mark Halperin in the middle there lol
I've always doubted that portals to hell existed, until I saw one.
November 4, 2025 at 11:55 PM
I've always doubted that portals to hell existed, until I saw one.
That's not an accurate representation of what happened.
Trump won 48% of Hispanic voters, way up from 36% in 2020. By contrast, white voters were a higher percentage of Democratic voters in 2024.
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
Trump won 48% of Hispanic voters, way up from 36% in 2020. By contrast, white voters were a higher percentage of Democratic voters in 2024.
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
November 3, 2025 at 7:44 PM
That's not an accurate representation of what happened.
Trump won 48% of Hispanic voters, way up from 36% in 2020. By contrast, white voters were a higher percentage of Democratic voters in 2024.
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
Trump won 48% of Hispanic voters, way up from 36% in 2020. By contrast, white voters were a higher percentage of Democratic voters in 2024.
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
Trump has a massive media machine on his side, but his core message resonates w the most important popular sentiment.
The economy, education, & social institutions have failed most Americans.
Republicans did this. It should be pointed out nonstop. Instead, Democrats defend a broken system.
The economy, education, & social institutions have failed most Americans.
Republicans did this. It should be pointed out nonstop. Instead, Democrats defend a broken system.
November 3, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Trump has a massive media machine on his side, but his core message resonates w the most important popular sentiment.
The economy, education, & social institutions have failed most Americans.
Republicans did this. It should be pointed out nonstop. Instead, Democrats defend a broken system.
The economy, education, & social institutions have failed most Americans.
Republicans did this. It should be pointed out nonstop. Instead, Democrats defend a broken system.
And in case you are wondering, there are several recent NY mayoral polls that ignore Eric Adams.
This is a perfect example of how pollster error can skew a result.
I was always terrified of this when I was a pollster. You have to present choices that match reality, and this is often difficult.
This is a perfect example of how pollster error can skew a result.
I was always terrified of this when I was a pollster. You have to present choices that match reality, and this is often difficult.
November 3, 2025 at 3:47 AM
And in case you are wondering, there are several recent NY mayoral polls that ignore Eric Adams.
This is a perfect example of how pollster error can skew a result.
I was always terrified of this when I was a pollster. You have to present choices that match reality, and this is often difficult.
This is a perfect example of how pollster error can skew a result.
I was always terrified of this when I was a pollster. You have to present choices that match reality, and this is often difficult.
Many Democratic voters have lost confidence in the party, but that isn't stopping them from wanting Democrats to have control of Congress.
Trump and Republicans are getting much more blame for the shutdown as well. Which makes sense since Trump refuses to negotiate. www.nbcnews.com/politics/ele...
Trump and Republicans are getting much more blame for the shutdown as well. Which makes sense since Trump refuses to negotiate. www.nbcnews.com/politics/ele...
November 3, 2025 at 12:45 AM
Many Democratic voters have lost confidence in the party, but that isn't stopping them from wanting Democrats to have control of Congress.
Trump and Republicans are getting much more blame for the shutdown as well. Which makes sense since Trump refuses to negotiate. www.nbcnews.com/politics/ele...
Trump and Republicans are getting much more blame for the shutdown as well. Which makes sense since Trump refuses to negotiate. www.nbcnews.com/politics/ele...
In 2024, Harris and her allies drastically outspent Trump and his.
Trump used free media of podcasts and streams. Harris barely did this.
The Trump campaign still spent some money on ads, but did so in far more efficient ways. This is a detailed look at one of their methods. archive.is/MYK2S
Trump used free media of podcasts and streams. Harris barely did this.
The Trump campaign still spent some money on ads, but did so in far more efficient ways. This is a detailed look at one of their methods. archive.is/MYK2S
November 2, 2025 at 7:00 PM
In 2024, Harris and her allies drastically outspent Trump and his.
Trump used free media of podcasts and streams. Harris barely did this.
The Trump campaign still spent some money on ads, but did so in far more efficient ways. This is a detailed look at one of their methods. archive.is/MYK2S
Trump used free media of podcasts and streams. Harris barely did this.
The Trump campaign still spent some money on ads, but did so in far more efficient ways. This is a detailed look at one of their methods. archive.is/MYK2S
The Trump regime is blatantly lying to SNAP users on the program website about who is causing their problems.
Republicans can easily shift funds around to give necessary food assistance. The regime is choosing not to do so and violating the Hatch Act to shift blame.
Republicans can easily shift funds around to give necessary food assistance. The regime is choosing not to do so and violating the Hatch Act to shift blame.
November 1, 2025 at 9:27 PM
The Trump regime is blatantly lying to SNAP users on the program website about who is causing their problems.
Republicans can easily shift funds around to give necessary food assistance. The regime is choosing not to do so and violating the Hatch Act to shift blame.
Republicans can easily shift funds around to give necessary food assistance. The regime is choosing not to do so and violating the Hatch Act to shift blame.
Some people do know what they are choosing, but the facts are quite clear that Trump's support was strongest among new voters and people who knew the least about news.
Low-information people are part of all democracies. We must reach them if we truly believe in it.
Low-information people are part of all democracies. We must reach them if we truly believe in it.
November 1, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Some people do know what they are choosing, but the facts are quite clear that Trump's support was strongest among new voters and people who knew the least about news.
Low-information people are part of all democracies. We must reach them if we truly believe in it.
Low-information people are part of all democracies. We must reach them if we truly believe in it.
The Kamala Harris campaign did exactly what "popularists" always advise.
Almost all of her major official policies were supported by a majority of Americans. archive.is/6opBF
It wasn't enough because Republicans just make up Democratic policies to run against. Distribution matters most.
Almost all of her major official policies were supported by a majority of Americans. archive.is/6opBF
It wasn't enough because Republicans just make up Democratic policies to run against. Distribution matters most.
November 1, 2025 at 7:05 PM
The Kamala Harris campaign did exactly what "popularists" always advise.
Almost all of her major official policies were supported by a majority of Americans. archive.is/6opBF
It wasn't enough because Republicans just make up Democratic policies to run against. Distribution matters most.
Almost all of her major official policies were supported by a majority of Americans. archive.is/6opBF
It wasn't enough because Republicans just make up Democratic policies to run against. Distribution matters most.
Despite months of non-stop Republican lies, the plurality of New York Jewish voters keep supporting Zohran Mamdani. His success here shows that there are limits to propaganda that a hard-working candidate with a strong social and PR teams can overcome.
October 31, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Despite months of non-stop Republican lies, the plurality of New York Jewish voters keep supporting Zohran Mamdani. His success here shows that there are limits to propaganda that a hard-working candidate with a strong social and PR teams can overcome.
The things you see when you tell Democrats the truth that local tv ads do little for presidential campaigns & to stop funding right wing stations!
This woman has been screaming in my replies without ever disclosing her direct financial interest in wasteful tv ads. I wonder why.
This woman has been screaming in my replies without ever disclosing her direct financial interest in wasteful tv ads. I wonder why.
October 31, 2025 at 3:05 PM
The things you see when you tell Democrats the truth that local tv ads do little for presidential campaigns & to stop funding right wing stations!
This woman has been screaming in my replies without ever disclosing her direct financial interest in wasteful tv ads. I wonder why.
This woman has been screaming in my replies without ever disclosing her direct financial interest in wasteful tv ads. I wonder why.
This woman does voiceover ads so she's obviously got a direct conflict of interest.
She's trying to protect the bag and isn't honest enough to admit that.
She's trying to protect the bag and isn't honest enough to admit that.
October 31, 2025 at 2:59 PM
This woman does voiceover ads so she's obviously got a direct conflict of interest.
She's trying to protect the bag and isn't honest enough to admit that.
She's trying to protect the bag and isn't honest enough to admit that.