Matt Blackwell
@mattblackwell.bsky.social
data, causal inference, experiments, politics
https://mattblackwell.org
https://mattblackwell.org
Pinned
Reminder that I have a textbook on an introduction to mathematical statistics and regression, designed for first year PhD students in poli sci, but maybe useful to others. Let me know if you use it and have feedback!
mattblackwell.github.io/gov2002-book/
mattblackwell.github.io/gov2002-book/
Apple AI suggested replies trying to get me canceled
November 18, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Apple AI suggested replies trying to get me canceled
Receiving 2026 summer camp emails in mid November 2025
November 17, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Receiving 2026 summer camp emails in mid November 2025
One question we never really addressed in Deep Roots but everyone either wanted us to or thought we did was “who’s more racist: northern or southern whites?”
if white voters in southern states were the same as white voters in New York this would be every electoral map of our lifetimes
November 17, 2025 at 7:02 PM
One question we never really addressed in Deep Roots but everyone either wanted us to or thought we did was “who’s more racist: northern or southern whites?”
I wonder if LLMs will end up more like airplanes than the internet. Non-trivial marginal costs means that most people will experience a relatively unchanging product focused on cost-effectiveness over technological progress.
November 17, 2025 at 12:22 AM
I wonder if LLMs will end up more like airplanes than the internet. Non-trivial marginal costs means that most people will experience a relatively unchanging product focused on cost-effectiveness over technological progress.
elite_university_strategy_for_trump_admin_FINAL_NTK.pdf
November 15, 2025 at 5:40 PM
elite_university_strategy_for_trump_admin_FINAL_NTK.pdf
On his deathbed, surrounded by his loving family and friends, he was gripped by a single paralyzing regret: “I wish I had spent more time posting about the differences between Twitter and Bluesky”
November 11, 2025 at 3:14 AM
On his deathbed, surrounded by his loving family and friends, he was gripped by a single paralyzing regret: “I wish I had spent more time posting about the differences between Twitter and Bluesky”
Lacour & Green (2014)
October 25, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Lacour & Green (2014)
Losing the social choice theorist vote with this unforgivable gaffe
September 6, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Losing the social choice theorist vote with this unforgivable gaffe
The final mission impossible is good but it’s hard to take a movie seriously when it uses the word “cyberspace” multiple times in dramatic scenes
May 24, 2025 at 12:53 PM
The final mission impossible is good but it’s hard to take a movie seriously when it uses the word “cyberspace” multiple times in dramatic scenes
(whispering into my phone during the job talk) grok is that true?
May 22, 2025 at 11:05 PM
(whispering into my phone during the job talk) grok is that true?
Thinking about saying “orthonormal” instead of “orthogonal” in normal conservation as a bit
May 15, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Thinking about saying “orthonormal” instead of “orthogonal” in normal conservation as a bit
getting asked to explain the 5 diff-in-diff estimators you used in your job talk
May 15, 2025 at 8:30 PM
getting asked to explain the 5 diff-in-diff estimators you used in your job talk
Narrative violation: Harvard is viewed more favorably than Trump, Vance, or Musk.
May 13, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Narrative violation: Harvard is viewed more favorably than Trump, Vance, or Musk.
Seeing AI people refer to 100% confidence intervals, we’re ngmi
May 10, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Seeing AI people refer to 100% confidence intervals, we’re ngmi
Gen alpha lingo that is starting to grate my ears: “I ‘searched up’ Minecraft mods”
May 9, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Gen alpha lingo that is starting to grate my ears: “I ‘searched up’ Minecraft mods”
The problem w this approach is that to get to the hard stuff, one has to spend a lot of time doing the stuff that a computer is very good at.
AI in education allows you complete work without mastery, leaving you without the foundations for the hard stuff
AI in education allows you complete work without mastery, leaving you without the foundations for the hard stuff
May 8, 2025 at 2:15 AM
The problem w this approach is that to get to the hard stuff, one has to spend a lot of time doing the stuff that a computer is very good at.
AI in education allows you complete work without mastery, leaving you without the foundations for the hard stuff
AI in education allows you complete work without mastery, leaving you without the foundations for the hard stuff
After listening to the Marxist, feminist professor rail against God, a Marine in the back of the class stood up and said “grok, is this true?”
May 8, 2025 at 2:13 AM
After listening to the Marxist, feminist professor rail against God, a Marine in the back of the class stood up and said “grok, is this true?”
I don’t think men are okay
![Tweet with text “Will Ballew @Smoke Ballew • 3h
It really is as simple as liberal men are simply low T
soy betas
Jeremy Kauffman
@jere... • 8h
every male on "This American Life" had a testosterone level so low it places them outside of the normal male range and closer to the female range
most doctors would medicate this
This American Life
Alex Blumberg What are the numbers exactly? What is it for--what's Rakoff? Off what's--
Ira Glass Rakoff is 274. You were at
144. I'm one hundred for--
Sarah Vowell Oh, my God!
[LAUGHTER]”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:t4vn5ha3pp6nmaqwyszhmmub/bafkreicl263fark2ko3676p7p5rukn6x2s5di63c2rpi7ph5iszybixmbe@jpeg)
![Tweet with text “Joshua Lisec, The Ghostwriter
@Josh… •Th
•••
Reminder that liberal males are quasi female.
Jeremy Kauffman
@jere... • 8h
every male on "This American Life" had a testosterone level so low it places them outside of the normal male range and closer to the female range
most doctors would medicate this
This American Life
=
Alex Blumberg What are the numbers exactly? What is it for--what's Rakoff? Off what's--
Ira Glass Rakoff is 274. You were at
144. I'm one hundred for--
Sarah Vowell Oh, my God!
[LAUGHTER]”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:t4vn5ha3pp6nmaqwyszhmmub/bafkreiep4xus3envdcwxyintzuylvz5lgzvsqwwjngeb4s6o7tbw7cfici@jpeg)
![Tweet with text “Joshua Lisec, The Ghostwriter
@Josh… •Th
•••
Reminder that liberal males are quasi female.
Jeremy Kauffman
@jere... • 8h
every male on "This American Life" had a testosterone level so low it places them outside of the normal male range and closer to the female range
most doctors would medicate this
This American Life
=
Alex Blumberg What are the numbers exactly? What is it for--what's Rakoff? Off what's--
Ira Glass Rakoff is 274. You were at
144. I'm one hundred for--
Sarah Vowell Oh, my God!
[LAUGHTER]”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:t4vn5ha3pp6nmaqwyszhmmub/bafkreiftk35vt34kz6ati7hpoawyxuplkrqwplhf744zzp75o7ju34252e@jpeg)
May 4, 2025 at 8:04 PM
I don’t think men are okay
Would love to hear about a specific time that Harvard proposed and supported “laws that explicitly dictate what can be taught”
April 18, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Would love to hear about a specific time that Harvard proposed and supported “laws that explicitly dictate what can be taught”
One of the insane demands was the federal government forcing Harvard to hire faculty/admit students expressly on viewpoint grounds to balance depts that lack viewpoint diversity.
Garber could (and probably would) have gone along with the initial set of demands but these go too far.
Garber could (and probably would) have gone along with the initial set of demands but these go too far.
April 14, 2025 at 7:50 PM
One of the insane demands was the federal government forcing Harvard to hire faculty/admit students expressly on viewpoint grounds to balance depts that lack viewpoint diversity.
Garber could (and probably would) have gone along with the initial set of demands but these go too far.
Garber could (and probably would) have gone along with the initial set of demands but these go too far.
My “there was was no insider trading at the White House” T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my shirt
April 14, 2025 at 3:17 PM
My “there was was no insider trading at the White House” T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my shirt
Fresh YouGov/Economist poll has Trump going from -3 net approval last week to -8 net approval this week. Only a 5pt hit for creating this chaos is crazy
April 9, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Fresh YouGov/Economist poll has Trump going from -3 net approval last week to -8 net approval this week. Only a 5pt hit for creating this chaos is crazy
I think if I were a youngish Republican politician I would would worry about the looming tariff-induced De-Ba'athification
April 9, 2025 at 1:26 PM
I think if I were a youngish Republican politician I would would worry about the looming tariff-induced De-Ba'athification