Mathew Barlow
@mathewabarlow.bsky.social
Climate scientist at UMass Lowell: droughts, floods, extreme events, & climate change. IPCC WG1 AR6 lead author. Skunk cabbage fan. he/him/his. Shocked but not awed.
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qWV-WIQAAAAJ&hl=e
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qWV-WIQAAAAJ&hl=e
Data gaps are certainly challenging - I think it is surprising the ENSO signal is as strong as it is in that region.
November 25, 2025 at 12:14 AM
Data gaps are certainly challenging - I think it is surprising the ENSO signal is as strong as it is in that region.
Indeed! Water management (or lack thereof) appears to be a big part of the urban impacts.
November 24, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Indeed! Water management (or lack thereof) appears to be a big part of the urban impacts.
Thanks! I agree about La Niña, probably a substantial factor this fall but likely less so in the recent multi-year run of drought. The Indian Ocean, West Pacific, & North Atlantic are also factors and it would take a bit of work to assess their individual contributions over the last few years.
November 24, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Thanks! I agree about La Niña, probably a substantial factor this fall but likely less so in the recent multi-year run of drought. The Indian Ocean, West Pacific, & North Atlantic are also factors and it would take a bit of work to assess their individual contributions over the last few years.
For a review of the multiple factors forcing drought in the region:
Barlow, M., B. Zaitchik, S. Paz, E. Black, J. Evans, and A. Hoell, 2016: A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. J. Climate, 29, 8547–8574, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI....
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Barlow, M., B. Zaitchik, S. Paz, E. Black, J. Evans, and A. Hoell, 2016: A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. J. Climate, 29, 8547–8574, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI....
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November 24, 2025 at 2:59 PM
For a review of the multiple factors forcing drought in the region:
Barlow, M., B. Zaitchik, S. Paz, E. Black, J. Evans, and A. Hoell, 2016: A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. J. Climate, 29, 8547–8574, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI....
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Barlow, M., B. Zaitchik, S. Paz, E. Black, J. Evans, and A. Hoell, 2016: A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. J. Climate, 29, 8547–8574, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI....
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The ocean has a strong influence on precipitation in Southwest Asia. The historical patterns of warm and cold that suppress rain in Tehran are shown on the left. The current pattern is shown on the right, aligning closely for maximum forcing of drought.
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November 24, 2025 at 2:59 PM
The ocean has a strong influence on precipitation in Southwest Asia. The historical patterns of warm and cold that suppress rain in Tehran are shown on the left. The current pattern is shown on the right, aligning closely for maximum forcing of drought.
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