Market Thoughts
@marketthoughts.bsky.social
Forget M2 and M3, I think M4 (Massive Mountain of Momentum Money) is the real mover these days. Yesterday again everything was correlated, there was no "safe haven", all went to cash, from stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, crypto, you name it. Long term is so yesterday, momentum rules.
December 13, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Forget M2 and M3, I think M4 (Massive Mountain of Momentum Money) is the real mover these days. Yesterday again everything was correlated, there was no "safe haven", all went to cash, from stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, crypto, you name it. Long term is so yesterday, momentum rules.
Interesting day. A bad Friday is uncommon, as operators don't like retail investors having time to think in the weekend. Also weekly options. But today it was uniformly bad, and, most interesting of all, bonds joined the downside, with decision. Next week is triple witching, so control is likely.
December 12, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Interesting day. A bad Friday is uncommon, as operators don't like retail investors having time to think in the weekend. Also weekly options. But today it was uniformly bad, and, most interesting of all, bonds joined the downside, with decision. Next week is triple witching, so control is likely.
US 10Y bond moving counter-current, obviously disappointed that the Fed hidden QE is just about short-term debt, not long-term. Foreign buyers seem convinced that a rebound in inflation is coming, and the Fed will raise rates in coming years. I would sooner bet for yield controls, but that's me.
December 12, 2025 at 12:14 PM
US 10Y bond moving counter-current, obviously disappointed that the Fed hidden QE is just about short-term debt, not long-term. Foreign buyers seem convinced that a rebound in inflation is coming, and the Fed will raise rates in coming years. I would sooner bet for yield controls, but that's me.
Everybody seems to be digesting the Fed news. The realize that, all talk aside, the walk is mighty inflationary. They are going to inject money into an economy not particularly needing it, so it will overheat a tad. There is still some general confusion, but this is the emerging narrative.
December 12, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Everybody seems to be digesting the Fed news. The realize that, all talk aside, the walk is mighty inflationary. They are going to inject money into an economy not particularly needing it, so it will overheat a tad. There is still some general confusion, but this is the emerging narrative.
Today, once the distraction of the Fed's meeting is gone, the hive mind seems to get concentrated again in the AI prospects, or rather lack thereof. Of course a rout is not desired before the quarterly witching (well, never, really), so the SP ex-Mag7 is pushed up on the lower rates, to compensate.
December 11, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Today, once the distraction of the Fed's meeting is gone, the hive mind seems to get concentrated again in the AI prospects, or rather lack thereof. Of course a rout is not desired before the quarterly witching (well, never, really), so the SP ex-Mag7 is pushed up on the lower rates, to compensate.
Euro stocks slightly up, having missed the drama upside and downside of the US markets. It's easier to remain at the same position, with no so many peaks and valleys. Curiously, rate dependent sectors keep underperforming. Despite Fed, markets still think the global rates tide starts to change.
December 11, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Euro stocks slightly up, having missed the drama upside and downside of the US markets. It's easier to remain at the same position, with no so many peaks and valleys. Curiously, rate dependent sectors keep underperforming. Despite Fed, markets still think the global rates tide starts to change.
After dovish Fed, markets up. During the night they reconsidered, recognized they were at the top of the lateral range, and a Fed meeting is too good an excuse to lose, and sold off. Now all it's needed is to find something that can be construed to have "disappointed" the market. Won't take long.
December 11, 2025 at 7:48 AM
After dovish Fed, markets up. During the night they reconsidered, recognized they were at the top of the lateral range, and a Fed meeting is too good an excuse to lose, and sold off. Now all it's needed is to find something that can be construed to have "disappointed" the market. Won't take long.
Euro stocks slightly red, frozen in the approaching headlights of the Fed meeting. Automobile, that was so strong, leads the downside, probably on news of no new China stimulus. Rate dependent sectors also redder, as the market seem to discount a more hawkish tone, or perhaps the long bonds downside
December 10, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Euro stocks slightly red, frozen in the approaching headlights of the Fed meeting. Automobile, that was so strong, leads the downside, probably on news of no new China stimulus. Rate dependent sectors also redder, as the market seem to discount a more hawkish tone, or perhaps the long bonds downside
Another gripping day of markets doing nothing. Except for silver, that continued trend with gusto. Tomorrow at least we'll stop waiting for the Fed meeting, but of course we'll start waiting for the quarterly options expiry next week.
December 9, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Another gripping day of markets doing nothing. Except for silver, that continued trend with gusto. Tomorrow at least we'll stop waiting for the Fed meeting, but of course we'll start waiting for the quarterly options expiry next week.
Futures seesawed on news of China limiting the use of the NVIDIA chip, that yesterday was given green light to be exported to China. So, a bit of "thanks but no thanks". China clearly wants their companies to design and use local chips. The time it takes is the time NVIDIA has. That's a known fact.
December 9, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Futures seesawed on news of China limiting the use of the NVIDIA chip, that yesterday was given green light to be exported to China. So, a bit of "thanks but no thanks". China clearly wants their companies to design and use local chips. The time it takes is the time NVIDIA has. That's a known fact.
Bonds retraced part of the daily losses, probably on operators wanting to listen to the Fed before doing more. Japanese and European bonds keep tense however. It's difficult to think what can the Fed say that will sway the trend. But you never know, after all, some day rate controls may be announced
December 9, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Bonds retraced part of the daily losses, probably on operators wanting to listen to the Fed before doing more. Japanese and European bonds keep tense however. It's difficult to think what can the Fed say that will sway the trend. But you never know, after all, some day rate controls may be announced
Not really a significant happening, but today the put wall of 0DTE options was at 6850, and, though it was tried in the last minute, it closed under the level. It's the first time, bar heavy movement days, that I see that. Call walls, sure, broken fairly often, but not put walls. A curiosity perhaps
December 8, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Not really a significant happening, but today the put wall of 0DTE options was at 6850, and, though it was tried in the last minute, it closed under the level. It's the first time, bar heavy movement days, that I see that. Call walls, sure, broken fairly often, but not put walls. A curiosity perhaps
Euro stocks flat, real state the biggest laggard on bonds weakness. That's the story of the day, bonds keep falling, and now a ECB voice joins the "next movement up" crew, with Japan as the first mate. About US bonds, the doubt is if their downside is just contagion, or Fed independence doubts too.
December 8, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Euro stocks flat, real state the biggest laggard on bonds weakness. That's the story of the day, bonds keep falling, and now a ECB voice joins the "next movement up" crew, with Japan as the first mate. About US bonds, the doubt is if their downside is just contagion, or Fed independence doubts too.
BofA's Mr. Hartnett is sounding less convinced about bonds. The Fed's dovishness and new chair make him put May 2016 as a closing date for longs. I suppose that view will only increase if SCOTUS deems right the firing of Ms. Cook, worrying all the Fed members about unpaid traffic tickets and such.
December 7, 2025 at 1:35 PM
BofA's Mr. Hartnett is sounding less convinced about bonds. The Fed's dovishness and new chair make him put May 2016 as a closing date for longs. I suppose that view will only increase if SCOTUS deems right the firing of Ms. Cook, worrying all the Fed members about unpaid traffic tickets and such.
And another day of SP whipsawing to end up in practically the same place as it began today. Or yesterday, or the day before. I wondered about how would December pass, with 7000 so near that a couple of good days would put us there. That's the clever solution. No good days. Nor bad ones either.
December 5, 2025 at 9:35 PM
And another day of SP whipsawing to end up in practically the same place as it began today. Or yesterday, or the day before. I wondered about how would December pass, with 7000 so near that a couple of good days would put us there. That's the clever solution. No good days. Nor bad ones either.
Euro automotive sector really strong of late, likely due to high hopes of petrol motors end-of-life legislation being scraped. I don't know, EVs are a superior tech, only a couple of breakthroughs away from being the only choice. But anyway, they (the stocks) were very cheap, so the upside can go on
December 5, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Euro automotive sector really strong of late, likely due to high hopes of petrol motors end-of-life legislation being scraped. I don't know, EVs are a superior tech, only a couple of breakthroughs away from being the only choice. But anyway, they (the stocks) were very cheap, so the upside can go on
Euro stocks slightly up, as usual. After all, nothing ever really happens. US futures same. Yesterday, markets rewarded Meta for reducing a bad investment. It defies imagination how high could Meta fly if they eliminated the bad investment completely. I really thought they had done it long time ago.
December 5, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Euro stocks slightly up, as usual. After all, nothing ever really happens. US futures same. Yesterday, markets rewarded Meta for reducing a bad investment. It defies imagination how high could Meta fly if they eliminated the bad investment completely. I really thought they had done it long time ago.
Goldman's "Most Shorted" index is up 9% in the last two days. That means that a lot of the upside is short closing, probably resigning themselves to a Santa rally, and certainly not to any downside. That might explain the strength of TSLA and Palantir too.
December 5, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Goldman's "Most Shorted" index is up 9% in the last two days. That means that a lot of the upside is short closing, probably resigning themselves to a Santa rally, and certainly not to any downside. That might explain the strength of TSLA and Palantir too.
Bonds are tracing a different than expected route. On great expected Fed dovishness, they are quite down today. Perhaps delayed contagion from the Japanese bonds? After all, the 30Y T-bond yields now 4.75%, the Japanese 3.4%. When you take into account the currency risk, swapping may seem good.
December 4, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Bonds are tracing a different than expected route. On great expected Fed dovishness, they are quite down today. Perhaps delayed contagion from the Japanese bonds? After all, the 30Y T-bond yields now 4.75%, the Japanese 3.4%. When you take into account the currency risk, swapping may seem good.
Euro stocks slightly up. They are, of late, always slightly up in the euro morning, then wait till the US awakes and move them. Medium term, all the charts I follow look toppy (well, except silver, tbh). It's not a good trading setup. US futures 0.0 flat, waiting to chop up and down, probably.
December 4, 2025 at 8:56 AM
Euro stocks slightly up. They are, of late, always slightly up in the euro morning, then wait till the US awakes and move them. Medium term, all the charts I follow look toppy (well, except silver, tbh). It's not a good trading setup. US futures 0.0 flat, waiting to chop up and down, probably.
Another choppy day, only today the chop was caused by an apparently fake new. Then the SP spent all the cash session recovering, to end in the same place. If you look at a one hour chart of the SP, it's crazy the behaviour this week. NVIDIA keeps inching down, however. Narrative is all.
December 3, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Another choppy day, only today the chop was caused by an apparently fake new. Then the SP spent all the cash session recovering, to end in the same place. If you look at a one hour chart of the SP, it's crazy the behaviour this week. NVIDIA keeps inching down, however. Narrative is all.
Lots of fiber laid in the 90's were never used. It's not so much that they miscalculated Internet future demand, but that ways of getting hundreds of times more data into each fiber were found. Similarly, the hyperscalers are just a couple of optimizations away (see DeepSeek) from being dinosaurs.
December 3, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Lots of fiber laid in the 90's were never used. It's not so much that they miscalculated Internet future demand, but that ways of getting hundreds of times more data into each fiber were found. Similarly, the hyperscalers are just a couple of optimizations away (see DeepSeek) from being dinosaurs.
Euro stocks moderately up, on no news. In general terms, all markets remain trendless, and quite jittery. Not a good structure for trend followers. US markets clearly don't want any problems until end of year, or at least next quarterly options expiry, when buybacks will also dwindle.
December 3, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Euro stocks moderately up, on no news. In general terms, all markets remain trendless, and quite jittery. Not a good structure for trend followers. US markets clearly don't want any problems until end of year, or at least next quarterly options expiry, when buybacks will also dwindle.
The Economist publishes an interesting article about how web searches can point us to a bubble burst, better than say valuations. It apparently worked with the dotcom bubble. Now searches for "AI stocks" dropped this very November, from 65% of its top (in August) to just 8%. Interesting.
December 2, 2025 at 9:46 AM
The Economist publishes an interesting article about how web searches can point us to a bubble burst, better than say valuations. It apparently worked with the dotcom bubble. Now searches for "AI stocks" dropped this very November, from 65% of its top (in August) to just 8%. Interesting.
Euro markets flat to greenish, US futures more solidly up. Everything is recovering from yesterday's Japanese bonds scare. Mr.Hassett likely nomination to next Fed increased the likelihood of Fed extreme dovishness. More money means everything up, or rather, fiat money down, it's the same thing.
December 2, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Euro markets flat to greenish, US futures more solidly up. Everything is recovering from yesterday's Japanese bonds scare. Mr.Hassett likely nomination to next Fed increased the likelihood of Fed extreme dovishness. More money means everything up, or rather, fiat money down, it's the same thing.