MarketScalpel
@marketscalpel.bsky.social
Sector/Industry Rotation | Macro | Corporate Finance | Strategy
Reposted by MarketScalpel
The US administration is directing the Department of Defense to buy coal power and spending $175m to keep ageing coal plants running — in the name of energy security.
Coal plants average 44 years old. Many are costly and prone to outages. Markets — not ideology — are driving their decline.
Coal plants average 44 years old. Many are costly and prone to outages. Markets — not ideology — are driving their decline.
February 12, 2026 at 8:25 AM
The US administration is directing the Department of Defense to buy coal power and spending $175m to keep ageing coal plants running — in the name of energy security.
Coal plants average 44 years old. Many are costly and prone to outages. Markets — not ideology — are driving their decline.
Coal plants average 44 years old. Many are costly and prone to outages. Markets — not ideology — are driving their decline.
UK 10yr Gilt - My active chart full of squiggles that detract from the basic position which is trying to claw its way back from the bottom of a fairly tight range. Suspect that succeeds ST, but fear this bounce is last chance saloon to sell before the bottom falls out:
February 12, 2026 at 7:50 AM
UK 10yr Gilt - My active chart full of squiggles that detract from the basic position which is trying to claw its way back from the bottom of a fairly tight range. Suspect that succeeds ST, but fear this bounce is last chance saloon to sell before the bottom falls out:
Financials - yep, weakness deepened and spread to Banks led by Integrateds as the day progressed, with 3/4 subsectors internally placing in the bottom 10 overall (Ins spared but hit early in the slide) and the sector closing nr the px low after a flaggy breakdn. Cld see more sideways but all v weak
February 12, 2026 at 7:40 AM
Financials - yep, weakness deepened and spread to Banks led by Integrateds as the day progressed, with 3/4 subsectors internally placing in the bottom 10 overall (Ins spared but hit early in the slide) and the sector closing nr the px low after a flaggy breakdn. Cld see more sideways but all v weak
Hotels / Travel+Les - subsector SRS rn testing Nov SRS ATL with mnths likely remaining on a LT cycle downphase, and recent leader Airlines hit for SRS-3.5% Wed, but Hotels gapping up past wk/px ATH Wed, with SRS now testing key resistance at Q1 '18 ATH. Lots of RoW exposure in there but overdone?
February 12, 2026 at 7:27 AM
Hotels / Travel+Les - subsector SRS rn testing Nov SRS ATL with mnths likely remaining on a LT cycle downphase, and recent leader Airlines hit for SRS-3.5% Wed, but Hotels gapping up past wk/px ATH Wed, with SRS now testing key resistance at Q1 '18 ATH. Lots of RoW exposure in there but overdone?
Real Estate / REITS - yep, RE Svcs worst subsector Wed SRS-11.4% led dn by a nr 20% haircut in #$ZG Zillow, but REITs extending the range breakout setting a nr 1yr px high with OBV still leading up and internal strength fairly broadbased rn ex Mortgage SRS- past wk/mnth
February 12, 2026 at 7:13 AM
Real Estate / REITS - yep, RE Svcs worst subsector Wed SRS-11.4% led dn by a nr 20% haircut in #$ZG Zillow, but REITs extending the range breakout setting a nr 1yr px high with OBV still leading up and internal strength fairly broadbased rn ex Mortgage SRS- past wk/mnth
Capital Mkts leading down again in Financials worst sector today currently closely followed by Asset Mgmt, with weakness in Invest Svcs at the subsector level broad-based 🚩🚩
S&P 1500 Cap Mkts - Asset Mgrs so far holding at the mid Nov SRS low but selling pressure rotating into Cap Mkts setting a 1.5yr SRS low Tue with an IT downtrend now in place and rel/abs volume going into orbit past 2wks:
February 11, 2026 at 3:50 PM
Capital Mkts leading down again in Financials worst sector today currently closely followed by Asset Mgmt, with weakness in Invest Svcs at the subsector level broad-based 🚩🚩
#$AMZN / Gen Retail - Broadline dominated by #$AMZN in the DJ nomenclature only industry group wkly SRS- in Gen Retail driving subsector level weakness, in a group that led down from the C19 bull mkt top, and the stock not far off a test of LT px trendline support with SRS maybe in a LT downtrend rn:
February 11, 2026 at 7:28 AM
#$AMZN / Gen Retail - Broadline dominated by #$AMZN in the DJ nomenclature only industry group wkly SRS- in Gen Retail driving subsector level weakness, in a group that led down from the C19 bull mkt top, and the stock not far off a test of LT px trendline support with SRS maybe in a LT downtrend rn:
subsector leaderboard fyi:
February 11, 2026 at 7:19 AM
subsector leaderboard fyi:
Home Bubblers - top subsector Tue SRS+4.8% with px at a 4m high but still in a congestion area and SRS probing resistance but rel volume action consistently weak on the entire rally thru early Jan. Unsure of overall pattern but ABC from Nov perhaps completing ST
February 11, 2026 at 7:16 AM
Home Bubblers - top subsector Tue SRS+4.8% with px at a 4m high but still in a congestion area and SRS probing resistance but rel volume action consistently weak on the entire rally thru early Jan. Unsure of overall pattern but ABC from Nov perhaps completing ST
yep, prelim reversal of the possible mean reversion move with the rally arrested just below the px ATH strengthening contours of the possible H&S top pattern in evidence quite a few other places with Value leading up and speculative Momo/$DWMI microcaps dn again. Note #$DWSV small cap value correl 👀
February 11, 2026 at 7:09 AM
yep, prelim reversal of the possible mean reversion move with the rally arrested just below the px ATH strengthening contours of the possible H&S top pattern in evidence quite a few other places with Value leading up and speculative Momo/$DWMI microcaps dn again. Note #$DWSV small cap value correl 👀
S&P 1500 Cap Mkts - Asset Mgrs so far holding at the mid Nov SRS low but selling pressure rotating into Cap Mkts setting a 1.5yr SRS low Tue with an IT downtrend now in place and rel/abs volume going into orbit past 2wks:
February 11, 2026 at 7:00 AM
S&P 1500 Cap Mkts - Asset Mgrs so far holding at the mid Nov SRS low but selling pressure rotating into Cap Mkts setting a 1.5yr SRS low Tue with an IT downtrend now in place and rel/abs volume going into orbit past 2wks:
Was Trump's latest friendly fire hit on the Canadians this time over the Great Lakes bridge due to pressure from his moron supporters...err...I mean....Moroun??!!
February 10, 2026 at 8:13 AM
Was Trump's latest friendly fire hit on the Canadians this time over the Great Lakes bridge due to pressure from his moron supporters...err...I mean....Moroun??!!
Software - Among the few SRS+ rel volume leaders but no more so on than on the recent nosedive, as bulls attempt to rally the group at the old Q4 '21 top since broken/turned key support successfully tested a few times but never before with this kind of trajectory and selling pressure. Lay yer bets:
February 10, 2026 at 7:47 AM
Software - Among the few SRS+ rel volume leaders but no more so on than on the recent nosedive, as bulls attempt to rally the group at the old Q4 '21 top since broken/turned key support successfully tested a few times but never before with this kind of trajectory and selling pressure. Lay yer bets:
yep, bounce extending to a second TD retesting the ATH, but volume falling sharply in tandem and rel volume leaders overwhelmingly SRS- Mon, with an impulse off Thu's lows likely completing and a possible H&S top setup dimly discernible in the volume action:
February 10, 2026 at 7:39 AM
yep, bounce extending to a second TD retesting the ATH, but volume falling sharply in tandem and rel volume leaders overwhelmingly SRS- Mon, with an impulse off Thu's lows likely completing and a possible H&S top setup dimly discernible in the volume action:
the fundamental mistake most pundits make is the applying underlying assumption that market moves must be logical, which forces us to listen to endless post-rationalisation drivel about the supposed logic underpinning noise trader driven moves
dinosaurs see what they want to see. Similar moves in value plays past wks eg Cons Staples, Telecoms, with Transports and Airlines also acting v well which should not be the case if the mkt were delivering some sort of sage judicious verdict on oil prices. It's just mad dash from one side of boat
February 8, 2026 at 4:44 PM
the fundamental mistake most pundits make is the applying underlying assumption that market moves must be logical, which forces us to listen to endless post-rationalisation drivel about the supposed logic underpinning noise trader driven moves
US subsector leaderboard, with 1m mkt correlations still generally exceptionally weak
February 8, 2026 at 8:04 AM
US subsector leaderboard, with 1m mkt correlations still generally exceptionally weak
#$N225 Nikkei - Setting a 6yr rel strength high vs US equities last wk (TOPIX lagging modestly) probing a well defined resistance area, with a LT double bottom looking increasingly solid as a sequence of LT higher highs and lows takes shape:
February 8, 2026 at 8:00 AM
#$N225 Nikkei - Setting a 6yr rel strength high vs US equities last wk (TOPIX lagging modestly) probing a well defined resistance area, with a LT double bottom looking increasingly solid as a sequence of LT higher highs and lows takes shape:
#$XAU Philly Gold/Silver Idx - Probing trendline support with obv generally holding up surprisingly well so far on the vicious selloff thru mid Jan and the recently dom lime cycle likely to turn supportive sometime midwk +/- a day or 2:
February 8, 2026 at 7:53 AM
#$XAU Philly Gold/Silver Idx - Probing trendline support with obv generally holding up surprisingly well so far on the vicious selloff thru mid Jan and the recently dom lime cycle likely to turn supportive sometime midwk +/- a day or 2:
#$DWSV Small Cap Value/ Big Picture - Only factor@52wk SRS high Fri/px ATH and history instructive; SRS bounced off a mid Nov ATL nr of the .com old economy capitulation low 03/'00 at end of a 40% rel strength loss from mid 90s SRS highs (hard to see only mthly data then). Imv same dynamic now BUT 1/
February 8, 2026 at 7:30 AM
#$DWSV Small Cap Value/ Big Picture - Only factor@52wk SRS high Fri/px ATH and history instructive; SRS bounced off a mid Nov ATL nr of the .com old economy capitulation low 03/'00 at end of a 40% rel strength loss from mid 90s SRS highs (hard to see only mthly data then). Imv same dynamic now BUT 1/
Bunds in #$USD (red) vs #$ZN 10yr Ponzis - Bunds had been eating Ponzis' lunch since early Dec but now giving some rel performance back not just via FX, as a flight to safety bid enters Ponzis with some some futures contract rollover spice potentially coming into play towards end of month:
February 6, 2026 at 7:26 AM
$Factor Leaderboard - Current value/growth performance dynamic now extending to a +7td streak beginning to look overdue for some sort of likely ST mean reversion reversal. Looking at the tealeaves suspect bulls try to paint a double bottom Thu's low:
February 6, 2026 at 7:12 AM
$Factor Leaderboard - Current value/growth performance dynamic now extending to a +7td streak beginning to look overdue for some sort of likely ST mean reversion reversal. Looking at the tealeaves suspect bulls try to paint a double bottom Thu's low:
Basic Mats - Mkt leader qtrly top ranked sector past 4wks/top 2 6wks biggest 1d decline Thu since last Apr with downside volatility picking up smartly and quite a bit of cyclical optimism/froth still evident in the weeds
February 6, 2026 at 6:59 AM
Basic Mats - Mkt leader qtrly top ranked sector past 4wks/top 2 6wks biggest 1d decline Thu since last Apr with downside volatility picking up smartly and quite a bit of cyclical optimism/froth still evident in the weeds
Asset Mgmt - Biggest rel volume of any industry group Thu/persistently heavy since the Q4 failed px breakout SRS-2.3% on the day setting a fractional new 1.5yr low with key support still a fair bit below current levels, and the LT lime cycle maybe rolling over early from a px triple top 🚩
February 6, 2026 at 6:40 AM
Asset Mgmt - Biggest rel volume of any industry group Thu/persistently heavy since the Q4 failed px breakout SRS-2.3% on the day setting a fractional new 1.5yr low with key support still a fair bit below current levels, and the LT lime cycle maybe rolling over early from a px triple top 🚩
note volume is exceptionally heavy on a sustained basis.
February 5, 2026 at 7:51 AM
note volume is exceptionally heavy on a sustained basis.
subsector leaderboard:
February 5, 2026 at 7:49 AM
subsector leaderboard: