Mark Dodson
@markdodson.bsky.social
Founder of Cypress Capital - www.cypresscapital.com
Pinned
Mark Dodson
@markdodson.bsky.social
· Oct 20
Greed is in the driver’s seat – the ratio of margin debt to money supply is higher than at any time except February and March 2000.
Reposted by Mark Dodson
Precious metals: average daily retail volume in precious metals options on our platform is running at nearly 7x the 2023 baseline. $GLD $SLV $GDX
Citadel Rubner
Citadel Rubner
February 5, 2026 at 12:22 AM
Precious metals: average daily retail volume in precious metals options on our platform is running at nearly 7x the 2023 baseline. $GLD $SLV $GDX
Citadel Rubner
Citadel Rubner
Reposted by Mark Dodson
UBS: The Adobe Digital Price Index, which covers prices of items sold online, rose in January by the most in its 12-year history.
(via @nicktimiraos.bsky.social)
(via @nicktimiraos.bsky.social)
February 2, 2026 at 8:23 PM
UBS: The Adobe Digital Price Index, which covers prices of items sold online, rose in January by the most in its 12-year history.
(via @nicktimiraos.bsky.social)
(via @nicktimiraos.bsky.social)
CRB Raw Industrials are running hot (>12% YoY).
When raw-material inflation hits double digits, stock returns tend to suffer & CPI/PPI often follow.
It futures speculation; it’s real-world inputs like burlap, tallow, & scrap metals.
Hard to square with hopes for a 90s-style, AI-driven disinflation.
When raw-material inflation hits double digits, stock returns tend to suffer & CPI/PPI often follow.
It futures speculation; it’s real-world inputs like burlap, tallow, & scrap metals.
Hard to square with hopes for a 90s-style, AI-driven disinflation.
January 29, 2026 at 5:23 PM
CRB Raw Industrials are running hot (>12% YoY).
When raw-material inflation hits double digits, stock returns tend to suffer & CPI/PPI often follow.
It futures speculation; it’s real-world inputs like burlap, tallow, & scrap metals.
Hard to square with hopes for a 90s-style, AI-driven disinflation.
When raw-material inflation hits double digits, stock returns tend to suffer & CPI/PPI often follow.
It futures speculation; it’s real-world inputs like burlap, tallow, & scrap metals.
Hard to square with hopes for a 90s-style, AI-driven disinflation.
Reposted by Mark Dodson
‘Dealers have been rapidly extending leverage in the equity market, as inferred by the rise in equity inventory on their balance sheets.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
January 27, 2026 at 7:49 PM
‘Dealers have been rapidly extending leverage in the equity market, as inferred by the rise in equity inventory on their balance sheets.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
Sad to hear of Doug Ramsey’s passing. He was one of my favorite strategists – clear thinking, independent, and consistently worth reading. He’ll be missed.
January 27, 2026 at 12:44 AM
Sad to hear of Doug Ramsey’s passing. He was one of my favorite strategists – clear thinking, independent, and consistently worth reading. He’ll be missed.
'Investors just made a mammoth $133 billion flip from cash to stocks, per Goldman Sachs - It’s a dash from cash, with investors taking billions in dry powder and pouring that money into the stock market....this is the 3rd largest level in our dataset'
sherwood.news/markets/inve...
sherwood.news/markets/inve...
January 23, 2026 at 5:16 PM
'Investors just made a mammoth $133 billion flip from cash to stocks, per Goldman Sachs - It’s a dash from cash, with investors taking billions in dry powder and pouring that money into the stock market....this is the 3rd largest level in our dataset'
sherwood.news/markets/inve...
sherwood.news/markets/inve...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
‘Servicemembers are making fortunes in tech stocks and bitcoin. They’re trading tips on obscure cryptocurrencies from the decks of aircraft carriers. Base parking lots are peppered with new Porsches and Humvees as the market hits new highs.’ www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
Top Gun Traders: Stock Bets and Crypto Culture Take Over the Military
Troops are hooked on investing. They’re trading tips from cockpits and the decks of aircraft carriers, and making fortunes.
www.wsj.com
December 1, 2025 at 3:30 PM
‘Servicemembers are making fortunes in tech stocks and bitcoin. They’re trading tips on obscure cryptocurrencies from the decks of aircraft carriers. Base parking lots are peppered with new Porsches and Humvees as the market hits new highs.’ www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
‘Failing the OC test is unusual for the higher-rated tranches of CLOs. The performance of the portfolio raises questions about the outlook for the broader private credit market, which has mushroomed in recent years but is now showing signs of weakness.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
BlackRock Private Credit CLO Fails Key Tests as Bad Loans Mount
A portfolio of private credit loans managed by BlackRock Inc. has performed so poorly that the money manager has waived some management fees – a rarity in the credit world.
www.bloomberg.com
November 20, 2025 at 4:08 PM
‘Failing the OC test is unusual for the higher-rated tranches of CLOs. The performance of the portfolio raises questions about the outlook for the broader private credit market, which has mushroomed in recent years but is now showing signs of weakness.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
GOOGLE DEEPMIND CEO: “.. It feels like there’s obviously a bubble in the private market. You look at seed rounds with just nothing, really, being tens of billions of dollars. That seems a little unsustainable. It’s not quite logical to me.”
$GOOGL
sources.news/p/demis-hass...
$GOOGL
sources.news/p/demis-hass...
November 18, 2025 at 8:27 PM
GOOGLE DEEPMIND CEO: “.. It feels like there’s obviously a bubble in the private market. You look at seed rounds with just nothing, really, being tens of billions of dollars. That seems a little unsustainable. It’s not quite logical to me.”
$GOOGL
sources.news/p/demis-hass...
$GOOGL
sources.news/p/demis-hass...
Fund managers: “Companies are over-investing.”
Also fund managers: near record-low cash and nearly max-long equities… otherwise known as over-invested.
sherwood.news/markets/fund...
Also fund managers: near record-low cash and nearly max-long equities… otherwise known as over-invested.
sherwood.news/markets/fund...
November 18, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Fund managers: “Companies are over-investing.”
Also fund managers: near record-low cash and nearly max-long equities… otherwise known as over-invested.
sherwood.news/markets/fund...
Also fund managers: near record-low cash and nearly max-long equities… otherwise known as over-invested.
sherwood.news/markets/fund...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
BofA FMS: FMS cash level drops to 3.7% from 3.8%
Lowest in 15 years
Lowest in 15 years
November 18, 2025 at 10:26 AM
BofA FMS: FMS cash level drops to 3.7% from 3.8%
Lowest in 15 years
Lowest in 15 years
“There is no point in subjecting our investors to risk in a market which I frankly do not understand.” - Julian Robertson, March 2000
“My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets.” www.ft.com/content/cec3...
‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry to close hedge fund as he warns on valuations
Asset manager famous for bet against US housing market says stock prices are unhinged from fundamentals
www.ft.com
November 14, 2025 at 3:48 AM
“There is no point in subjecting our investors to risk in a market which I frankly do not understand.” - Julian Robertson, March 2000
Reposted by Mark Dodson
This chart shows the explosion in the percentage of exchange-traded equity funds that use leverage, which recently soared to 33%, three times the prior peak in 2022.
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Get investing and trading insights inside the #1 newsletter for Elliott wave: tinyurl.com/454j3h75
November 12, 2025 at 7:58 PM
This chart shows the explosion in the percentage of exchange-traded equity funds that use leverage, which recently soared to 33%, three times the prior peak in 2022.
Get investing and trading insights inside the #1 newsletter for Elliott wave: tinyurl.com/454j3h75
Get investing and trading insights inside the #1 newsletter for Elliott wave: tinyurl.com/454j3h75
Reposted by Mark Dodson
Warren Buffett now owns a staggering 5.6% of the entire U.S. Treasury Bill Market 🚨🚨🚨
November 10, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Warren Buffett now owns a staggering 5.6% of the entire U.S. Treasury Bill Market 🚨🚨🚨
'US tech capital expenditure grew more over the past five years than between 1999 and 2002, and almost as rapidly as the entire technology, media, and telecommunications sector at the height of the dot-com boom'
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
November 3, 2025 at 3:02 PM
'US tech capital expenditure grew more over the past five years than between 1999 and 2002, and almost as rapidly as the entire technology, media, and telecommunications sector at the height of the dot-com boom'
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
This chart is going around and purports to show that EM central banks are behind rising gold prices. This chart is bogus. The rise in gold prices is driving up the gold share in central bank holdings. So this plots price against price. Volumes are stable.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
October 27, 2025 at 12:22 PM
This chart is going around and purports to show that EM central banks are behind rising gold prices. This chart is bogus. The rise in gold prices is driving up the gold share in central bank holdings. So this plots price against price. Volumes are stable.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
Missed this one in the last post... 'Retail participation in the equity market (~22%) now stands at its strongest since February 2021.'
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
October 25, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Missed this one in the last post... 'Retail participation in the equity market (~22%) now stands at its strongest since February 2021.'
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
'Retail Call Option Frenzy: Retail call buying is hitting new record levels — a clear sign of renewed confidence.'
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
October 25, 2025 at 3:11 PM
'Retail Call Option Frenzy: Retail call buying is hitting new record levels — a clear sign of renewed confidence.'
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
Retail speculation isn’t just a U.S. story…
“Investing is often treated like gambling rather than long-term planning—almost like Squid Game.” www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Wipeouts Threaten Korea Retail Army Chasing Riskiest Investments
The nation’s mom-and-pop investors are piling into risky assets as they try to build enough wealth to buy a home.
www.bloomberg.com
October 22, 2025 at 2:34 AM
Retail speculation isn’t just a U.S. story…
Greed is in the driver’s seat – the ratio of margin debt to money supply is higher than at any time except February and March 2000.
October 20, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Greed is in the driver’s seat – the ratio of margin debt to money supply is higher than at any time except February and March 2000.
Reposted by Mark Dodson
‘Today, working-class investors are flocking to all these markets: stocks, betting and crypto. They are beneficiaries of a new age of democratic finance. Or the last invitees to a party that’s going to end.’ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
From Sports to AI, America Is Awash in Speculative Fever. Washington Is Egging It On.
Working-class investors are flocking to stocks, betting and crypto, beneficiaries of a new age of democratic finance—or the last invitees to a party that’s going to end.
www.wsj.com
October 16, 2025 at 5:53 PM
‘Today, working-class investors are flocking to all these markets: stocks, betting and crypto. They are beneficiaries of a new age of democratic finance. Or the last invitees to a party that’s going to end.’ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
Every dip is bought. "Friday, October 10th – marked the largest options trading day in market history...surge epitomized the “buy-the-dip” mentality. Retail flow skewed 11% better to buy...marking the largest single-day call buying ever on our platform."
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
Equity FLASH Update - Citadel Securities
Citadel Securities is an award-winning global market-maker across a broad array of fixed income and equity products.
www.citadelsecurities.com
October 16, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Every dip is bought. "Friday, October 10th – marked the largest options trading day in market history...surge epitomized the “buy-the-dip” mentality. Retail flow skewed 11% better to buy...marking the largest single-day call buying ever on our platform."
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
Foreigners now have the highest allocation to U.S. Stocks in history 🇺🇸🚨
October 16, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Foreigners now have the highest allocation to U.S. Stocks in history 🇺🇸🚨
Multiple false recession signals from the Leading Economic Index since its 2021 peak. But only one component has really mattered - stock prices. The wealth effect is doing all the heavy lifting. Even with a government shutdown, the Fed could just watch the Mag 7 and the S&P 500 to set policy.
October 16, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Multiple false recession signals from the Leading Economic Index since its 2021 peak. But only one component has really mattered - stock prices. The wealth effect is doing all the heavy lifting. Even with a government shutdown, the Fed could just watch the Mag 7 and the S&P 500 to set policy.