Man, Machine, Self
@man-machine-self.bsky.social
Horrifically unfunny analysis and meming designed to filter everyone | the least legible poster ever | grok dis-approved
People underestimate how high-signal "we need something like that" projects can be.
most formal hiring processes are an attempt to proxy for "you can do this", in their general absence.
most formal hiring processes are an attempt to proxy for "you can do this", in their general absence.
February 16, 2026 at 1:18 AM
People underestimate how high-signal "we need something like that" projects can be.
most formal hiring processes are an attempt to proxy for "you can do this", in their general absence.
most formal hiring processes are an attempt to proxy for "you can do this", in their general absence.
Humans also avoid this by adding a few independent fact checker humans into the loop.
eg if for an 80% correct claim, you've got two 80% correct statistically independent fact checkers, you get ~90% accuracy. Five gets ~95%, ten gets ~98%.
Directionally correct idiocy in groups is often sufficient
eg if for an 80% correct claim, you've got two 80% correct statistically independent fact checkers, you get ~90% accuracy. Five gets ~95%, ten gets ~98%.
Directionally correct idiocy in groups is often sufficient
February 16, 2026 at 1:05 AM
Humans also avoid this by adding a few independent fact checker humans into the loop.
eg if for an 80% correct claim, you've got two 80% correct statistically independent fact checkers, you get ~90% accuracy. Five gets ~95%, ten gets ~98%.
Directionally correct idiocy in groups is often sufficient
eg if for an 80% correct claim, you've got two 80% correct statistically independent fact checkers, you get ~90% accuracy. Five gets ~95%, ten gets ~98%.
Directionally correct idiocy in groups is often sufficient
I briefly thought that was a massive extended palette of sim needs and got excited
"oh shit, he's low on sleep, novelty, warmth, artistic vigor, and last-time-since-he-had-soup-ness"
"oh shit, he's low on sleep, novelty, warmth, artistic vigor, and last-time-since-he-had-soup-ness"
February 13, 2026 at 11:39 PM
I briefly thought that was a massive extended palette of sim needs and got excited
"oh shit, he's low on sleep, novelty, warmth, artistic vigor, and last-time-since-he-had-soup-ness"
"oh shit, he's low on sleep, novelty, warmth, artistic vigor, and last-time-since-he-had-soup-ness"
It's a question of "do you ACTUALLY need to win conservatives this election, or do you just need your base and the independents?"
Right now, if polling continues as is, it looks like "independents are on your side, probably just activate the base and you win".
Right now, if polling continues as is, it looks like "independents are on your side, probably just activate the base and you win".
February 13, 2026 at 5:44 PM
It's a question of "do you ACTUALLY need to win conservatives this election, or do you just need your base and the independents?"
Right now, if polling continues as is, it looks like "independents are on your side, probably just activate the base and you win".
Right now, if polling continues as is, it looks like "independents are on your side, probably just activate the base and you win".
Bet at this point is a counter-cultural "own the libs"-qua-trumpism counter-wave.
In this model, being elite, coastal, Californian, and directly hating trump + being interested in Trumpist prosecution, legacy erasure, and executive branch purges are actually all points in his favor.
In this model, being elite, coastal, Californian, and directly hating trump + being interested in Trumpist prosecution, legacy erasure, and executive branch purges are actually all points in his favor.
February 13, 2026 at 5:44 PM
Bet at this point is a counter-cultural "own the libs"-qua-trumpism counter-wave.
In this model, being elite, coastal, Californian, and directly hating trump + being interested in Trumpist prosecution, legacy erasure, and executive branch purges are actually all points in his favor.
In this model, being elite, coastal, Californian, and directly hating trump + being interested in Trumpist prosecution, legacy erasure, and executive branch purges are actually all points in his favor.
Having a name for it helped me notice places in my life where I was farming this sensation.
It also helped with noticing it was very rarely attached to anything that actually directly improved my life.
It also helped with noticing it was very rarely attached to anything that actually directly improved my life.
February 13, 2026 at 12:14 AM
Having a name for it helped me notice places in my life where I was farming this sensation.
It also helped with noticing it was very rarely attached to anything that actually directly improved my life.
It also helped with noticing it was very rarely attached to anything that actually directly improved my life.
@pleometric.bsky.social got me thinking about this stuff so also follow that penguin if you don't already.
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
@pleometric.bsky.social got me thinking about this stuff so also follow that penguin if you don't already.
Ultimately, everyone will find their level in dante's content hell.
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Ultimately, everyone will find their level in dante's content hell.
It'll look like above infinite stream, plus, plus notifications that your favorite gens just got a episode in the ongoing saga you've been watching for 18 months.
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
It'll look like above infinite stream, plus, plus notifications that your favorite gens just got a episode in the ongoing saga you've been watching for 18 months.
The goal is that you bring your eyes and click "Wow!", "Boring", or "NEXT!" and eventually you stare "forever".
Tiktok and insta are fighting for this. I don't think they'll get there before one of the major labs defects for infinite money and says "fine, we'll do it ourselves"
Tiktok and insta are fighting for this. I don't think they'll get there before one of the major labs defects for infinite money and says "fine, we'll do it ourselves"
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
The goal is that you bring your eyes and click "Wow!", "Boring", or "NEXT!" and eventually you stare "forever".
Tiktok and insta are fighting for this. I don't think they'll get there before one of the major labs defects for infinite money and says "fine, we'll do it ourselves"
Tiktok and insta are fighting for this. I don't think they'll get there before one of the major labs defects for infinite money and says "fine, we'll do it ourselves"
Tier 3 is "The bottomless trough", which is the interdimensional cable or infinite jest tape of real-time queuing up gens of exactly what you wanna watch, what you wanna see, and grows you an existing and evolving content hole by developing it in ways that bring you back again, and again, and...
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Tier 3 is "The bottomless trough", which is the interdimensional cable or infinite jest tape of real-time queuing up gens of exactly what you wanna watch, what you wanna see, and grows you an existing and evolving content hole by developing it in ways that bring you back again, and again, and...
They'll call it something like "tubi originals", and I expect they will pick up a bit of a cult following because although most of them will be ABJECTLY mid, there's going to be a handful of strivers who do crazy work hit with it.
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
They'll call it something like "tubi originals", and I expect they will pick up a bit of a cult following because although most of them will be ABJECTLY mid, there's going to be a handful of strivers who do crazy work hit with it.
Expectations will be that there is no cast and crew and the film is aggressively all AI everywhere.
If there's a cast, it's either solely for likenesses, green-screen, or body mocap for AI style transfer. Expectations are "if the director wants a cast, they pay for one out of their cut".
If there's a cast, it's either solely for likenesses, green-screen, or body mocap for AI style transfer. Expectations are "if the director wants a cast, they pay for one out of their cut".
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Expectations will be that there is no cast and crew and the film is aggressively all AI everywhere.
If there's a cast, it's either solely for likenesses, green-screen, or body mocap for AI style transfer. Expectations are "if the director wants a cast, they pay for one out of their cut".
If there's a cast, it's either solely for likenesses, green-screen, or body mocap for AI style transfer. Expectations are "if the director wants a cast, they pay for one out of their cut".
Creation process will be "you find some dude to be your head-slopper for a piece of content they're willing to attach their name to", with a ~2 month production cycle.
Think "2 weeks to make and evaluate it, 2 weeks to prep materials and legal work needed to sell it."
Think "2 weeks to make and evaluate it, 2 weeks to prep materials and legal work needed to sell it."
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Creation process will be "you find some dude to be your head-slopper for a piece of content they're willing to attach their name to", with a ~2 month production cycle.
Think "2 weeks to make and evaluate it, 2 weeks to prep materials and legal work needed to sell it."
Think "2 weeks to make and evaluate it, 2 weeks to prep materials and legal work needed to sell it."
Business model here was: find cheap old catalogue padders studios don't care about, buy the rights or work out profit-sharing on ads, and you capture longtail viewership.
They'll find AI attractive as chance to "cut the studio out, get cheaper content, pocket gains as profit".
They'll find AI attractive as chance to "cut the studio out, get cheaper content, pocket gains as profit".
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Business model here was: find cheap old catalogue padders studios don't care about, buy the rights or work out profit-sharing on ads, and you capture longtail viewership.
They'll find AI attractive as chance to "cut the studio out, get cheaper content, pocket gains as profit".
They'll find AI attractive as chance to "cut the studio out, get cheaper content, pocket gains as profit".
Tier 2 is where AI will start being felt: "I want CURATED shared slop". I expect this to find most of its early growth on current and new free streaming services as they are the pre-AI implementation of this.
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Tier 2 is where AI will start being felt: "I want CURATED shared slop". I expect this to find most of its early growth on current and new free streaming services as they are the pre-AI implementation of this.
This idolization will be driving the content rather than the content itself.
You see this a little today, but the sales pitch is "what if we made this process like 80% of the actual content?".
You see this a little today, but the sales pitch is "what if we made this process like 80% of the actual content?".
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
This idolization will be driving the content rather than the content itself.
You see this a little today, but the sales pitch is "what if we made this process like 80% of the actual content?".
You see this a little today, but the sales pitch is "what if we made this process like 80% of the actual content?".
Current traditional "they do their work and walk the red carpet, but otherwise they are invisible to the public behind large hedges and tall gates or are busy waiting tables" aloofness shall be thrown out for pro-wrestling kayfabe and hyper-exposure of the human element of the performers.
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Current traditional "they do their work and walk the red carpet, but otherwise they are invisible to the public behind large hedges and tall gates or are busy waiting tables" aloofness shall be thrown out for pro-wrestling kayfabe and hyper-exposure of the human element of the performers.
This Tier 1 will be catering to "human demand will still include demand for humans", so these studios will be aiming for selling
"Look, it's all your favorite stars and celebrities!" but in an increasingly cut-throat social game.
"Look, it's all your favorite stars and celebrities!" but in an increasingly cut-throat social game.
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
This Tier 1 will be catering to "human demand will still include demand for humans", so these studios will be aiming for selling
"Look, it's all your favorite stars and celebrities!" but in an increasingly cut-throat social game.
"Look, it's all your favorite stars and celebrities!" but in an increasingly cut-throat social game.
This will be dramatically enabled by AI.
The skill level of actors can be a LOT worse if one can, with one or two clicks, "fix it" and still turn them into a star. The selection process will lose most natural weighting and besides "can you publically aura farm?" will be ~under studio control.
The skill level of actors can be a LOT worse if one can, with one or two clicks, "fix it" and still turn them into a star. The selection process will lose most natural weighting and besides "can you publically aura farm?" will be ~under studio control.
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
This will be dramatically enabled by AI.
The skill level of actors can be a LOT worse if one can, with one or two clicks, "fix it" and still turn them into a star. The selection process will lose most natural weighting and besides "can you publically aura farm?" will be ~under studio control.
The skill level of actors can be a LOT worse if one can, with one or two clicks, "fix it" and still turn them into a star. The selection process will lose most natural weighting and besides "can you publically aura farm?" will be ~under studio control.
Idols are a useful model for "semi-interreplaceable human artistic labor, with human drama as primary accelerant".
The studio system will be selling the marketing and access to make YOU famous with their pipeline, should you submit to it, and will dispose of you when it is done with you.
The studio system will be selling the marketing and access to make YOU famous with their pipeline, should you submit to it, and will dispose of you when it is done with you.
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Idols are a useful model for "semi-interreplaceable human artistic labor, with human drama as primary accelerant".
The studio system will be selling the marketing and access to make YOU famous with their pipeline, should you submit to it, and will dispose of you when it is done with you.
The studio system will be selling the marketing and access to make YOU famous with their pipeline, should you submit to it, and will dispose of you when it is done with you.
Being able to cut travel and re-shoots, as well as being able to run similarly with smaller crews, will dramatically lower costs in production.
Where it becomes accelerationist, and where that money will go, is that I think they're going to adopt the k-pop idol model.
Where it becomes accelerationist, and where that money will go, is that I think they're going to adopt the k-pop idol model.
February 12, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Being able to cut travel and re-shoots, as well as being able to run similarly with smaller crews, will dramatically lower costs in production.
Where it becomes accelerationist, and where that money will go, is that I think they're going to adopt the k-pop idol model.
Where it becomes accelerationist, and where that money will go, is that I think they're going to adopt the k-pop idol model.