@dvpw @AnnaKurella @HartlandAlex @ortutt @StefanChristoph @verbalyte @M_Filsinger @ECPR_AffPol

@ForumMIDEM

Read the full study here (in German): 👇

https://forum-midem.de/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TUD_MIDEM_Report_Polarisierte_politische_Landschaften.pdf

@Felix_Hormig | @StSchaeller | @ForumMIDEM | @tudresden_de | @GSW_TUDresden

On the other hand, we find that the more sparsely populated a municipality is and the farther away it is from a major urban centre, the better the AfD's electoral performance. The same is true for places with lower quality and availability of local public services. (3/3)

We find significant correlations not with current, but with past unemployment rates: In municipalities where many people were unemployed in 2001, the AfD vote share is higher today, while the BSW vote share is lower. (2/3)

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https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41358-023-00362-6

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https://www.courthousenews.com/germanys-new-populist-party-hopes-to-build-on-eu-election-success/

@ForumMIDEM Further research on #BSW by us and others will follow: @CW_PoWi, @jpthomeczek, @SarahWagnerPhD, @Julius_Ktxt, @NilsSteiner, @ZoeLefkofridi, @MarkusWagnerAT, @JRob0922, @mhansenphd, @JeremyCliffe, @AdrianPabst1, @Buendnis_SahraW

@ForumMIDEM Overall, not only AfD (and #Linke ), but also SPD and CDU are likely to be affected by possible BSW vote gains.

On the other hand, ideological convergences of its supporter bases might pave the way for possible political alliances between BSW and SPD/CDU. (5/5)

@ForumMIDEM Does the BSW have the potential to significantly weaken the AfD?

We are rather skeptical. A rivalry between BSW and AfD arises primarily with regard to politically disillusioned voter groups, especially in eastern Germany. (4/5)

(3/5)

@ForumMIDEM Overall, in terms of their socio-econ. left-right orientation, BSW supporters are close to voters of the social democratic SPD, while regarding their socio-cult. views they are most similar to supporters of the CDU/CSU. Rather large is the ideolog. distance to the Linke....

Based on new survey data from @ForumMIDEM, we analyzed polit. positions of BSW supporters.

We found that, on average, BSW supporters can indeed be considered "left-conservative" even if the econ. left-orient. is more decisive than the cult. position for BSW affinity. (2/5)