MarkMan
@madmanmark84.bsky.social
Just another older white guy, 1st-gen college in a purple state & family
"Hallucinations" aren't objects which AI sorts from facts. "Hallucinations" are connections the AI posits between facts that aren't there, due to limits in training data causing a model to stretch the statistical connections it makes.
December 10, 2025 at 3:41 AM
"Hallucinations" aren't objects which AI sorts from facts. "Hallucinations" are connections the AI posits between facts that aren't there, due to limits in training data causing a model to stretch the statistical connections it makes.
wow, the comment section on the NYT site for this article is almost universally brutal variations on "you ran clumsy campaigns in both 2020 and 2024; we still don't even know what you stand for; just go away please"
December 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
wow, the comment section on the NYT site for this article is almost universally brutal variations on "you ran clumsy campaigns in both 2020 and 2024; we still don't even know what you stand for; just go away please"
I understand your trepidation - bluesky is oddly luddite, given how the liberal base leans towards educated! - but thank you for sticking around!
December 9, 2025 at 8:38 PM
I understand your trepidation - bluesky is oddly luddite, given how the liberal base leans towards educated! - but thank you for sticking around!
ps I should add that, however damaging it will turn out to be in the long-term, the provisions of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" that take effect Jan 1 are expected to boost US GDP growth by nearly 1% in 2026 (vs whatever it would have been if it had not passed)
December 9, 2025 at 8:31 PM
ps I should add that, however damaging it will turn out to be in the long-term, the provisions of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" that take effect Jan 1 are expected to boost US GDP growth by nearly 1% in 2026 (vs whatever it would have been if it had not passed)
We'll have to agree to disagree there.
December 9, 2025 at 8:24 PM
We'll have to agree to disagree there.
First, to be clear: I'm embarrassed and ashamed Trump is saying things like this
But I'll be blunt on other side too: the EU region has lagged US in GDP growth for decades, and GDP growth shown in your graphic isn't the achievement you appear to think it is (it's also a year old graphic)
But I'll be blunt on other side too: the EU region has lagged US in GDP growth for decades, and GDP growth shown in your graphic isn't the achievement you appear to think it is (it's also a year old graphic)
December 9, 2025 at 8:23 PM
First, to be clear: I'm embarrassed and ashamed Trump is saying things like this
But I'll be blunt on other side too: the EU region has lagged US in GDP growth for decades, and GDP growth shown in your graphic isn't the achievement you appear to think it is (it's also a year old graphic)
But I'll be blunt on other side too: the EU region has lagged US in GDP growth for decades, and GDP growth shown in your graphic isn't the achievement you appear to think it is (it's also a year old graphic)
Not gonna disagree.
Although not sure I'd say it's about Biden either. Eg. there's a school of thought among economists that that the AI capex spend is what's really goosing the US economy right now, and keeping those overall GDP numbers right now. Some say we'd already be in recession otherwise.
Although not sure I'd say it's about Biden either. Eg. there's a school of thought among economists that that the AI capex spend is what's really goosing the US economy right now, and keeping those overall GDP numbers right now. Some say we'd already be in recession otherwise.
December 9, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Not gonna disagree.
Although not sure I'd say it's about Biden either. Eg. there's a school of thought among economists that that the AI capex spend is what's really goosing the US economy right now, and keeping those overall GDP numbers right now. Some say we'd already be in recession otherwise.
Although not sure I'd say it's about Biden either. Eg. there's a school of thought among economists that that the AI capex spend is what's really goosing the US economy right now, and keeping those overall GDP numbers right now. Some say we'd already be in recession otherwise.
ps. This 90m DW documentary from 2 weeks ago shocked me in how bluntly it looks at US history and culture. WADR you don't get this depth from anyone on bluesky
I think it's good for US citizens to get an outside perspective, especially if they've not been a permanent resident anywhere else (I have)
I think it's good for US citizens to get an outside perspective, especially if they've not been a permanent resident anywhere else (I have)
Why the US is almost always at war | DW Documentary
YouTube video by DW Documentary
www.youtube.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:47 PM
ps. This 90m DW documentary from 2 weeks ago shocked me in how bluntly it looks at US history and culture. WADR you don't get this depth from anyone on bluesky
I think it's good for US citizens to get an outside perspective, especially if they've not been a permanent resident anywhere else (I have)
I think it's good for US citizens to get an outside perspective, especially if they've not been a permanent resident anywhere else (I have)
I don't think it's fair to call out *all* "legacy media"
I'm satisfied with DW News in particular (English language service of Deutsche Welle). I've been watching it for years (now decades?); used to watch BBC but over time found this better. Example of a recent roundtable below
Also documentaries
I'm satisfied with DW News in particular (English language service of Deutsche Welle). I've been watching it for years (now decades?); used to watch BBC but over time found this better. Example of a recent roundtable below
Also documentaries
Trump’s secret business deals with Putin—profit over peace? | To the Point
YouTube video by DW News
www.youtube.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:39 PM
I don't think it's fair to call out *all* "legacy media"
I'm satisfied with DW News in particular (English language service of Deutsche Welle). I've been watching it for years (now decades?); used to watch BBC but over time found this better. Example of a recent roundtable below
Also documentaries
I'm satisfied with DW News in particular (English language service of Deutsche Welle). I've been watching it for years (now decades?); used to watch BBC but over time found this better. Example of a recent roundtable below
Also documentaries
Curious logic:
1. Don't know anything yet about Pixel 11, but I'm declaring it winner by default because Samsung and OnePlus seem like they lost their path in 2024
2. A year ago I declared Samsung would be best phone of 2025 without knowing yet what they'd do either.
There's literally zero facts!
1. Don't know anything yet about Pixel 11, but I'm declaring it winner by default because Samsung and OnePlus seem like they lost their path in 2024
2. A year ago I declared Samsung would be best phone of 2025 without knowing yet what they'd do either.
There's literally zero facts!
December 9, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Curious logic:
1. Don't know anything yet about Pixel 11, but I'm declaring it winner by default because Samsung and OnePlus seem like they lost their path in 2024
2. A year ago I declared Samsung would be best phone of 2025 without knowing yet what they'd do either.
There's literally zero facts!
1. Don't know anything yet about Pixel 11, but I'm declaring it winner by default because Samsung and OnePlus seem like they lost their path in 2024
2. A year ago I declared Samsung would be best phone of 2025 without knowing yet what they'd do either.
There's literally zero facts!
He battered the more-or-less healthy economy he inherited, with his policies & flip-flops, but it's not broken - yet. GDP growth remains positive.
Of course individual sectors fare differently. Small businesses reliant on imports & soybean farmers were particularly pummeled.
Of course individual sectors fare differently. Small businesses reliant on imports & soybean farmers were particularly pummeled.
December 9, 2025 at 4:55 PM
He battered the more-or-less healthy economy he inherited, with his policies & flip-flops, but it's not broken - yet. GDP growth remains positive.
Of course individual sectors fare differently. Small businesses reliant on imports & soybean farmers were particularly pummeled.
Of course individual sectors fare differently. Small businesses reliant on imports & soybean farmers were particularly pummeled.
Per the footnote on this sentence, this 12/8 status is presumably referencing this discussion in the 12/2 ISW update
TL;DR:
> inflation ~20%
> energy revenues expected down 50% 2025 -> 2026
> Russian Central Bank began selling its physical gold reserves in late November 2025
TL;DR:
> inflation ~20%
> energy revenues expected down 50% 2025 -> 2026
> Russian Central Bank began selling its physical gold reserves in late November 2025
![The Kremlin’s recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy is doing markedly worse than Putin’s portrayal, however. Russian inflation is estimated at around 20 percent, and the Russian Ministry of Finance stated on September 29 that it expects Russia’s oil and gas revenues to be down 50 percent in 2026 as compared to 2025.[20] The Russian Central Bank began selling its physical gold reserves in late November 2025 for the first time as part of the Russian Ministry of Finance’s operations to fund the state budget.[21] Russia has steadily depleted its sovereign wealth fund’s liquid reserves funding its war in Ukraine and has had to resort to selling its gold reserves due to unsustainable spending.[22] Putin also signed a law on November 27 increasing the Value Added Tax (VAT) from 20 to 22 percent, likely to buttress federal budget deficits.[23] Russia’s extremely low unemployment rate indicates that Russia is experiencing labor shortages and is likely causing wage inflation in the civilian and defense sectors, contributing to inflation. Russia has also likely had to resort to importing labor from North Korea to compensate for labor shortages, and Putin’s recent executive order temporarily waiving visa requirements for Chinese nationals suggests that Russia could be preparing to import labor from the PRC as well.[24] Russia recently began compulsory recruitment of active reservists, likely to prepare to deploy them to combat in Ukraine, as Russian regional authorities continue to reduce one-time recruitment payments in the face of mounting economic strain.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5zmqxbsweq2uo7ujs6v3m4n5/bafkreicoxcprt5k7p3d6soyfacvwi2izzcyhj5zdoe555z6y7t4lqmrzti@jpeg)
December 9, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Per the footnote on this sentence, this 12/8 status is presumably referencing this discussion in the 12/2 ISW update
TL;DR:
> inflation ~20%
> energy revenues expected down 50% 2025 -> 2026
> Russian Central Bank began selling its physical gold reserves in late November 2025
TL;DR:
> inflation ~20%
> energy revenues expected down 50% 2025 -> 2026
> Russian Central Bank began selling its physical gold reserves in late November 2025
Maybe Huawei will, but NVIDIA is pretty focused & relentless.
People say AMD is catching up to NVIDIA too; the current focus is the MI450 Instinct due 2H 2026. But people were saying AMD was just as close on NVIDIA's heels in 2015, too; I participated in those discussions. Huawei is way behind AMD.
People say AMD is catching up to NVIDIA too; the current focus is the MI450 Instinct due 2H 2026. But people were saying AMD was just as close on NVIDIA's heels in 2015, too; I participated in those discussions. Huawei is way behind AMD.
December 9, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Maybe Huawei will, but NVIDIA is pretty focused & relentless.
People say AMD is catching up to NVIDIA too; the current focus is the MI450 Instinct due 2H 2026. But people were saying AMD was just as close on NVIDIA's heels in 2015, too; I participated in those discussions. Huawei is way behind AMD.
People say AMD is catching up to NVIDIA too; the current focus is the MI450 Instinct due 2H 2026. But people were saying AMD was just as close on NVIDIA's heels in 2015, too; I participated in those discussions. Huawei is way behind AMD.
I don't understand why you replied to a discussion about what GOP congresswomen have said and done in the last month by posting a video from March 2024, with a poll about how Biden (still nominee) had gained 5% after Jean Carroll case
December 9, 2025 at 3:43 PM
I don't understand why you replied to a discussion about what GOP congresswomen have said and done in the last month by posting a video from March 2024, with a poll about how Biden (still nominee) had gained 5% after Jean Carroll case
FWIW, Gemini (AI) thinks GOP support is actually falling faster among men than women
December 9, 2025 at 2:10 PM
FWIW, Gemini (AI) thinks GOP support is actually falling faster among men than women
Except the article isn't about "Republican women" as a whole, it's exclusively about "Republican women in the US House," and even then it's only about 6 of those 31.
Is there any evidence that GOP support has dropped among all women (and any more than the recent drop among men)?
Is there any evidence that GOP support has dropped among all women (and any more than the recent drop among men)?
December 9, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Except the article isn't about "Republican women" as a whole, it's exclusively about "Republican women in the US House," and even then it's only about 6 of those 31.
Is there any evidence that GOP support has dropped among all women (and any more than the recent drop among men)?
Is there any evidence that GOP support has dropped among all women (and any more than the recent drop among men)?
The H100 and H200 are now "old NVIDIA chips" (previous gen to the current Blackwell), but the smuggling occurred in 2024, when they were the top of the line.
So the comparable situation would be someone smuggling Blackwell today - which China is still banned from licenses to buy.
So the comparable situation would be someone smuggling Blackwell today - which China is still banned from licenses to buy.
December 9, 2025 at 1:03 PM
The H100 and H200 are now "old NVIDIA chips" (previous gen to the current Blackwell), but the smuggling occurred in 2024, when they were the top of the line.
So the comparable situation would be someone smuggling Blackwell today - which China is still banned from licenses to buy.
So the comparable situation would be someone smuggling Blackwell today - which China is still banned from licenses to buy.
I've also concerns about this, but clarification: the H200 isn't NVIDIA's "cutting edge AI chip." It's previous gen, Hopper, and a year ago Biden let NVIDIA to sell the Hopper variant just below that to China, the H20. Back then H20 was arguably more "cutting edge" than is H200 now, w/ Blackwell out
December 9, 2025 at 12:31 PM
I've also concerns about this, but clarification: the H200 isn't NVIDIA's "cutting edge AI chip." It's previous gen, Hopper, and a year ago Biden let NVIDIA to sell the Hopper variant just below that to China, the H20. Back then H20 was arguably more "cutting edge" than is H200 now, w/ Blackwell out
this is probably same information, from non-paywall source?
www.globaltimes.cn
December 9, 2025 at 2:41 AM
this is probably same information, from non-paywall source?
I wouldn't be surprised if they spent a bit of money in the primary to surreptitiously *boost* her vs Talarico. I think GOP would prefer her in the general about as much as Dems would prefer Paxton as opponent (in terms of increasing chance of winning the general)
December 9, 2025 at 1:24 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if they spent a bit of money in the primary to surreptitiously *boost* her vs Talarico. I think GOP would prefer her in the general about as much as Dems would prefer Paxton as opponent (in terms of increasing chance of winning the general)
Interesting claim, given it's enterprise, so actually a mash of GPT-5 "pro" and "thinking" variants behind the scenes (but as an AI industry expert I'm sure you know MSFT owns a big share of OpenAI)
But you still haven't said, did even this supposed "saddest LLM" still get the summary right?
But you still haven't said, did even this supposed "saddest LLM" still get the summary right?
December 9, 2025 at 1:05 AM
Interesting claim, given it's enterprise, so actually a mash of GPT-5 "pro" and "thinking" variants behind the scenes (but as an AI industry expert I'm sure you know MSFT owns a big share of OpenAI)
But you still haven't said, did even this supposed "saddest LLM" still get the summary right?
But you still haven't said, did even this supposed "saddest LLM" still get the summary right?
Yeah, for a while there I thought Branson (or Blue Origin) might step up as 2nd source, but they seem to be more interested in suborbital "tourism?"
December 9, 2025 at 12:35 AM
Yeah, for a while there I thought Branson (or Blue Origin) might step up as 2nd source, but they seem to be more interested in suborbital "tourism?"
Holy cow, this post apparently earned me 33 new blocks - and counting! Touchy folks here!
Whoever replied I should use AI to summarize:💡Result below. All this looks correct, if not "news." Thesis seems to be: if AI capex doesn't generate ROI this ends badly! Didn't need 16,000 words to say that 🤷♂️
Whoever replied I should use AI to summarize:💡Result below. All this looks correct, if not "news." Thesis seems to be: if AI capex doesn't generate ROI this ends badly! Didn't need 16,000 words to say that 🤷♂️
December 9, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Holy cow, this post apparently earned me 33 new blocks - and counting! Touchy folks here!
Whoever replied I should use AI to summarize:💡Result below. All this looks correct, if not "news." Thesis seems to be: if AI capex doesn't generate ROI this ends badly! Didn't need 16,000 words to say that 🤷♂️
Whoever replied I should use AI to summarize:💡Result below. All this looks correct, if not "news." Thesis seems to be: if AI capex doesn't generate ROI this ends badly! Didn't need 16,000 words to say that 🤷♂️
Ah, I vaguely remember PlanetSpace. But didn't realize it was them behind it.
But your article does a good job explaining why they went with SpaceX - NASA was really in a bind, the ISS needed to be continuously resupplied and counting on Space Shuttle for much longer was looking way more risky.
But your article does a good job explaining why they went with SpaceX - NASA was really in a bind, the ISS needed to be continuously resupplied and counting on Space Shuttle for much longer was looking way more risky.
December 8, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Ah, I vaguely remember PlanetSpace. But didn't realize it was them behind it.
But your article does a good job explaining why they went with SpaceX - NASA was really in a bind, the ISS needed to be continuously resupplied and counting on Space Shuttle for much longer was looking way more risky.
But your article does a good job explaining why they went with SpaceX - NASA was really in a bind, the ISS needed to be continuously resupplied and counting on Space Shuttle for much longer was looking way more risky.
Boeing and Lockheed do not build liquid-fueled rockets needed to put payloads into orbit
December 8, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Boeing and Lockheed do not build liquid-fueled rockets needed to put payloads into orbit