Lukas Mergele
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lukasmergele.bsky.social
Lukas Mergele
@lukasmergele.bsky.social
5.5K followers 2K following 510 posts
Policy consultant @ BSS Economic Consultants, Basel | Economist: Public Sector, Labor Markets, Education | Dad of 3 | German-Swiss musings | trains.

https://sites.google.com/view/lmergele/home
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lukasmergele.bsky.social
Good Morning Zurich
November 18, 2025 at 7:07 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Die Aufregung um den SBB-Auftrag an Siemens verstehe ich nicht.

Es ist umgekehrt völlig normal und erfreulich, dass Stadler in Deutschland Aufträge erhält:

1️⃣Aktuell liefert Stadler 44 Triebzüge an DB Regio Südwest
2️⃣ DB Regio Thüringen hat kürzlich 19 Triebzüge bestellt
1/3
November 11, 2025 at 10:04 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Econ meme that made me giggle.

Via Linkedin from Ignacio Ramirez Moreno (www.linkedin.com/in/ignacio-r...)

Thought you might enjoy it too, @fabiocanetg.bsky.social!
September 23, 2025 at 12:09 PM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Leider bestätigt die Bundesregierung 🇩🇪 mal wieder die klassischen Political Economy-Annahmen. Genau wie bei der Diskussion um das Schuldenpaket befürchtet.

via lnkd.in/p/eVtPyNS3
September 19, 2025 at 1:23 PM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Können wir schon, wir sind nur viel mehr auf den Aussenhandel angewiesen als die USA - und nicht durch einen Bloc geschützt wie andere kleinere Länder in der Grafik unten (Daten: Weltbank).
August 12, 2025 at 12:06 PM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Full workflow and link to the @natcellbio.nature.com paper:

www.nature.com/articles/s41...
July 14, 2025 at 12:39 PM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
👇 Those two are the same graph 👇

...but the 2nd one focuses on the message &

follows @helenajambor.bsky.social's checklist for visualizing scientific data

(1/2)
bar plot with lots of clutter, including boxes, bold fonts, text redundancies etc. cleaned bar plot
July 14, 2025 at 12:39 PM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Economics Professorship in the German Southwest

▫️In Mosbach, close to Mannheim and Heidelberg
▫️Strong teaching focus (German required)

www.jobs-dhbw.de/jobposting/d...

#Econsky #Econjobs
June 1, 2025 at 9:52 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Germany is back 🙏
Starter, Macron, Merz in Ukraine
May 10, 2025 at 5:44 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Trump hit Switzerland 🇨🇭 with a 32% "reciprocal" tariff 📉📈

💡 BUT: Effective tariff is only 18% as some goods were exempted. In particular, pharmaceuticals 💊 They are making up about one fourth of Swiss exports to US.

Global Trade Alert computed effective tariff rates w/ exceptions 👇
April 3, 2025 at 1:37 PM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Das sind teils schon sehr alte Spuren der Geschichte
www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu/inhalt/jahr/...
February 24, 2025 at 8:14 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Das Schweizer Fernsehen hat unsere neue Studie zu den Preisen von Laboranalysen in einem "Kassensturz"-Beitrag aufgenommen.

Freue mich mega, wie umfassend und verständlich die Redaktion das komplexe Thema aufgearbeitet hat - wir waren immerhin knapp 2 Jahre dran...

Links im nächsten Post 👇
Blick ins SRF-Studio Beispiel für den CRP-Test, der in der Schweiz 121% teurer ist.
February 6, 2025 at 10:47 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
This paper says birth-order effects are a thing in the US and highlights the role of parental investments
On the Production of Skills and the Birth-Order Effect Ronni Pavan Journal of Human Resources Abstract First-born children tend to outperform their younger siblings on measures such as cognitive exams, wages, educational attainment, and employment. Using a framework similar to Cunha and Heckman (2008) and Cunha, Heckman, and Schennach (2010), this paper finds that differences in parents’ investments across siblings can account for more than one-half of the gap in cognitive skills among siblings. The study’s framework accommodates for endogeneity in parents’ investments, measurement error, missing observations, and dynamic impacts of parental investments. We see evidence of the birth-order effects in many measures, indicating that second-born children and, to a greater extent, third-born children receive fewer family investments than their older siblings. The effect appears to be stronger for investments that are more common among young children, such as the number of books and whether the mother reads to the child. The effect is not as prevalent for investments associated with older children, such as whether the child is taken to the theater or a museum.
January 30, 2025 at 8:08 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
More positive views on Trumps policies regarding security & current conflicts. This is where the EU vs. outside EU gap is visible again.
4/5
January 27, 2025 at 11:03 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
And for climate, too
3/5
January 27, 2025 at 11:03 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Okay, many experts agree though that he is bad for trade.
2/5
January 27, 2025 at 11:03 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Views on Trump diverge strongly between people inside and outside of Europe.

Also holds for economic experts (red=more negative).

Research by the ifo institute (@cesifo.org). 🧵
Regarding economic growth, opinions among experts are notably divided. In Western Europe, pessimism dominates, with over 80% of respondents predicting negative effects on economic growth under Trump’s presidency. Similarly, experts in North America share a predominantly negative outlook. In contrast, opinions in other parts of the world, particularly in Africa and Asia, are less critical. In many regions across these continents, the majority of experts do not foresee a significant negative impact on their countries’ economic growth.
January 27, 2025 at 11:03 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Deepseek AI in action
January 24, 2025 at 4:32 PM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Any data on real wages? What I am wondering about:
Monthly rent in Burnley is 588 Monthly rent in Hammersmith is 2693
January 20, 2025 at 10:20 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Yes, good point, but the results are very similar
Respondents in most countries outside EU think Trump will be good for American citizens
January 20, 2025 at 7:20 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Hard fact to stomach:

Most countries outside of Europe have actually rather favorable views on the incoming Trump presidency.

Important to think outside of your national context.
In countries from India and China to Turkey and Brazil, more respondents think Trump will be good for America, for their country and for peace in the world than think he will be bad for them.
January 20, 2025 at 6:45 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Hier eine weitere neue Publikation zur Treuhandanstalt (bis Mitte Februar als Gift Link):

authors.elsevier.com/a/1kMoCAlw9w...
January 13, 2025 at 9:34 PM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
The 1906 San Francisco Fire was one of the largest urban fires in American history.

@hannaschwank.bsky.social's excellent paper on its long-run consequences has sadly become very timely.

Luckily we have learned some lessons (e.g. insurance more common), still an invaluable piece of research.
Abstract. Natural disasters are growing in frequency globally. Understanding how vulnerable populations respond to these disasters is essential for effective policy response. This paper explores the short- and long-run consequences of the 1906 San Francisco Fire, one of the largest urban fires in American history. Using linked Census records, I follow residents of San Francisco and their children from 1900 to 1940. Historical records suggest that exogenous factors such as wind and the availability of water determined where the fire stopped. I implement a spatial regression discontinuity design across the boundary of the razed area to identify the effect of the fire on those who lost their home to it. I find that in the short run, the fire displaced affected residents, forced them into lower paying occupations and out of entrepreneurship. Experiencing the disaster disrupted children’s school attendance and led to an average loss of six months of education. While most effects attenuated over time, the negative effect on business ownership persists even in 1940, 34 years after the fire. Therefore, my findings reject the hope for a “reversal of fortune” for the victims, in contrast to what is found for more recent natural disasters such as hurricane Katrina.
January 9, 2025 at 8:44 AM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Related: the big mess of upper Austria (Im from one of the brown dots)
Map of German area belonging to upper Austria in 1800, mostly concentrated in the southwest
December 16, 2024 at 5:18 PM
lukasmergele.bsky.social
Brutal.

Totally cannot recommend blueskyroast.com
December 5, 2024 at 7:07 AM