Liam
@lrbatman1945.bsky.social
Political stats from a neurodivergent leftie in NZ
I'll throw in two more graphics tonight.
January 16, 2026 at 7:53 AM
I'll throw in two more graphics tonight.
Gonna cover some of the East Auckland electorates in today's thread.
January 15, 2026 at 6:59 PM
Gonna cover some of the East Auckland electorates in today's thread.
Three more graphics, and we're covering the Bay of Plenty region in this thread.
January 13, 2026 at 10:39 PM
Three more graphics, and we're covering the Bay of Plenty region in this thread.
Allow me to break up my 2023 NZ election graphics with some photos from the 2025 NZ Labour Conference.
There's a real sense of optimism in the party that we can win this year. A good campaign and a vision of hope, and we can take down lightweight Luxon and his Coalition.
There's a real sense of optimism in the party that we can win this year. A good campaign and a vision of hope, and we can take down lightweight Luxon and his Coalition.
January 12, 2026 at 1:49 AM
Allow me to break up my 2023 NZ election graphics with some photos from the 2025 NZ Labour Conference.
There's a real sense of optimism in the party that we can win this year. A good campaign and a vision of hope, and we can take down lightweight Luxon and his Coalition.
There's a real sense of optimism in the party that we can win this year. A good campaign and a vision of hope, and we can take down lightweight Luxon and his Coalition.
Two more graphics today to polish off the lower North Island.
January 4, 2026 at 7:27 AM
Two more graphics today to polish off the lower North Island.
The Taranaki electorate thread
Taranaki-King Country, and Barbara Kuriger is elected for a fourth term. Labour list MP Angela Roberts is out.
The right secures a decisive win on party vote, a swing right of almost 13%
Taranaki-King Country, and Barbara Kuriger is elected for a fourth term. Labour list MP Angela Roberts is out.
The right secures a decisive win on party vote, a swing right of almost 13%
January 3, 2026 at 6:39 AM
The Taranaki electorate thread
Taranaki-King Country, and Barbara Kuriger is elected for a fourth term. Labour list MP Angela Roberts is out.
The right secures a decisive win on party vote, a swing right of almost 13%
Taranaki-King Country, and Barbara Kuriger is elected for a fourth term. Labour list MP Angela Roberts is out.
The right secures a decisive win on party vote, a swing right of almost 13%
Managed to finish making all of the 2023 election graphics and will post them over the coming days.
Tonight, I'll cover all the Taranaki seats
Tonight, I'll cover all the Taranaki seats
January 3, 2026 at 6:29 AM
Managed to finish making all of the 2023 election graphics and will post them over the coming days.
Tonight, I'll cover all the Taranaki seats
Tonight, I'll cover all the Taranaki seats
TVNZ Verian Poll tonight
My guess
LAB: 36
NAT: 32
GRN: 10
ACT: 7
NZF: 7
TPM: 2
My guess
LAB: 36
NAT: 32
GRN: 10
ACT: 7
NZF: 7
TPM: 2
December 7, 2025 at 10:07 PM
TVNZ Verian Poll tonight
My guess
LAB: 36
NAT: 32
GRN: 10
ACT: 7
NZF: 7
TPM: 2
My guess
LAB: 36
NAT: 32
GRN: 10
ACT: 7
NZF: 7
TPM: 2
Looking back at my prediction thread. May have got a couple trends wrong, but happy with how I called the council races overall in Christchurch
Thoughts on how Christchurch local elections will play out. Just gut instinct...
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1/
October 19, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Looking back at my prediction thread. May have got a couple trends wrong, but happy with how I called the council races overall in Christchurch
Thoughts on how Christchurch local elections will play out. Just gut instinct...
1/
1/
October 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Thoughts on how Christchurch local elections will play out. Just gut instinct...
1/
1/
Another thread tonight. And it's the remainder of west Auckland tonight.
June 26, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Another thread tonight. And it's the remainder of west Auckland tonight.
My promised thread, covering the east coast of the North Island
June 24, 2025 at 9:31 AM
My promised thread, covering the east coast of the North Island
Next electorate graphic thread to drop tonight.
Gonna cover the eastern coast of the North Island; East Coast, Napier, Tukituki and Wairarapa
Gonna cover the eastern coast of the North Island; East Coast, Napier, Tukituki and Wairarapa
June 22, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Next electorate graphic thread to drop tonight.
Gonna cover the eastern coast of the North Island; East Coast, Napier, Tukituki and Wairarapa
Gonna cover the eastern coast of the North Island; East Coast, Napier, Tukituki and Wairarapa
As promised, tonight's thread of election graphics are for the remaining Wellington seats
April 24, 2025 at 9:15 AM
As promised, tonight's thread of election graphics are for the remaining Wellington seats
Will post graphics for the remaining seats in Wellington tonight.
April 23, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Will post graphics for the remaining seats in Wellington tonight.
Another thread of 2023 election results. This thread is polishing off the South Island electorate seats.
April 20, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Another thread of 2023 election results. This thread is polishing off the South Island electorate seats.
Starting to feel Albanese has a good chance of a majority on May 3rd.
April 12, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Starting to feel Albanese has a good chance of a majority on May 3rd.
A Tony Benn quote comes to mind with the Nats announcing $9b in new defence spending.
'If we can find the money to kill people, we can find the money to help people.'
'If we can find the money to kill people, we can find the money to help people.'
April 7, 2025 at 7:18 PM
A Tony Benn quote comes to mind with the Nats announcing $9b in new defence spending.
'If we can find the money to kill people, we can find the money to help people.'
'If we can find the money to kill people, we can find the money to help people.'
Reposted by Liam
AOC: If you are an LGBTQ kid or family, we cannot throw you under the bus in order to win an election. In this house, we stand together
March 22, 2025 at 12:07 AM
AOC: If you are an LGBTQ kid or family, we cannot throw you under the bus in order to win an election. In this house, we stand together
What's happening with UK Labour absolutely sickens me. Cowardly Keir Starmer has sold out every principle the party was built on and turned on the very people the party was founded to stand up for.
Starmer, Reeves, Streeting, Kendall, Akehurst. They need to go.
Starmer, Reeves, Streeting, Kendall, Akehurst. They need to go.
March 20, 2025 at 5:02 AM
What's happening with UK Labour absolutely sickens me. Cowardly Keir Starmer has sold out every principle the party was built on and turned on the very people the party was founded to stand up for.
Starmer, Reeves, Streeting, Kendall, Akehurst. They need to go.
Starmer, Reeves, Streeting, Kendall, Akehurst. They need to go.
In the midst of polishing off the rest of the South Island electorates for their graphics, but that Talbot Mills poll!
That's a 7.1% swing from National to Labour. Reflected on the electorates, that would be Labour winning seats like Hamilton East and Whanganui, not just Banks P and Mt Roskill
That's a 7.1% swing from National to Labour. Reflected on the electorates, that would be Labour winning seats like Hamilton East and Whanganui, not just Banks P and Mt Roskill
March 15, 2025 at 1:17 AM
In the midst of polishing off the rest of the South Island electorates for their graphics, but that Talbot Mills poll!
That's a 7.1% swing from National to Labour. Reflected on the electorates, that would be Labour winning seats like Hamilton East and Whanganui, not just Banks P and Mt Roskill
That's a 7.1% swing from National to Labour. Reflected on the electorates, that would be Labour winning seats like Hamilton East and Whanganui, not just Banks P and Mt Roskill
Today's 2023 election graphics thread covers the remaining Maori electorate seats.
March 8, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Today's 2023 election graphics thread covers the remaining Maori electorate seats.
This thread is for the three Green wins in 2023
February 28, 2025 at 9:34 PM
This thread is for the three Green wins in 2023
More 2023 election result graphics
This thread is for the three closest Labour held seats
This thread is for the three closest Labour held seats
February 28, 2025 at 9:09 PM
More 2023 election result graphics
This thread is for the three closest Labour held seats
This thread is for the three closest Labour held seats
Watching Canadian Tories losing their shit as their landslide evaporates brings a smile to my face.
The unhinged poll denialsm is gold.
The unhinged poll denialsm is gold.
February 20, 2025 at 3:48 AM
Watching Canadian Tories losing their shit as their landslide evaporates brings a smile to my face.
The unhinged poll denialsm is gold.
The unhinged poll denialsm is gold.