Winston Lin
@linstonwin.bsky.social
Pinned
Winston Lin
@linstonwin.bsky.social
· Mar 8
Clarification: my paper doesn’t advocate a specific estimator. That’s one of the meanings of “agnostic” in the title :)
Reposted by Winston Lin
Gentle reminder that a correlation coefficient isn’t a particularly great way to quantify the effect of a dichotomous treatment. See also
www.the100.ci/2025/07/28/w...
www.the100.ci/2025/07/28/w...
November 24, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Gentle reminder that a correlation coefficient isn’t a particularly great way to quantify the effect of a dichotomous treatment. See also
www.the100.ci/2025/07/28/w...
www.the100.ci/2025/07/28/w...
Reposted by Winston Lin
Excellent new editorial and guideline on interpreting p values and interval estimates
bjsm.bmj.com/content/earl...
bjsm.bmj.com/content/earl...
Interpreting p values and interval estimates based on practical relevance: guidance for the sports medicine clinician
Statistical methods are employed in medical research to estimate effects of treatments or health conditions across populations.1 2 This paper presents a framework to avoid common misinterpretations th...
bjsm.bmj.com
October 9, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Excellent new editorial and guideline on interpreting p values and interval estimates
bjsm.bmj.com/content/earl...
bjsm.bmj.com/content/earl...
Reposted by Winston Lin
Are you or one of your students considering doing a Ph.D. in a social science? I've spent a lot of time talking about this w/ students & finally wrote something up.
IMO, there are only 3 good reasons to do it. One of them needs to be true--otherwise, don't.
medium.com/the-quantast...
IMO, there are only 3 good reasons to do it. One of them needs to be true--otherwise, don't.
medium.com/the-quantast...
The Only Three Reasons to Do a Ph.D. in the Social Sciences
If none are true, don’t do it.
medium.com
September 24, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Are you or one of your students considering doing a Ph.D. in a social science? I've spent a lot of time talking about this w/ students & finally wrote something up.
IMO, there are only 3 good reasons to do it. One of them needs to be true--otherwise, don't.
medium.com/the-quantast...
IMO, there are only 3 good reasons to do it. One of them needs to be true--otherwise, don't.
medium.com/the-quantast...
Reposted by Winston Lin
Reposted by Winston Lin
See our No-Spin report on a widely-covered NBER study of Medicaid expansion. In brief: Despite the abstract's claims that expansion reduced adult mortality 2.5%, the study found much smaller effects that fell short of statistical significance in its main preregistered analysis.🧵
June 11, 2025 at 5:37 PM
See our No-Spin report on a widely-covered NBER study of Medicaid expansion. In brief: Despite the abstract's claims that expansion reduced adult mortality 2.5%, the study found much smaller effects that fell short of statistical significance in its main preregistered analysis.🧵
Reposted by Winston Lin
Starting to look like I might not be able to work at Harvard anymore due to recent funding cuts. If you know of any open statistical consulting positions that support remote work or are NYC-based, please reach out! 😅
June 4, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Starting to look like I might not be able to work at Harvard anymore due to recent funding cuts. If you know of any open statistical consulting positions that support remote work or are NYC-based, please reach out! 😅
Reposted by Winston Lin
Issues with interpreting p-values haunts even AI, which is prone to same biases as human researchers. ChatGPT, Gemini & Claude all fall prey to "dichotomania" - treating p=0.049 & p=0.051 as categorically different, and paying too much attention to significance. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
April 21, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Issues with interpreting p-values haunts even AI, which is prone to same biases as human researchers. ChatGPT, Gemini & Claude all fall prey to "dichotomania" - treating p=0.049 & p=0.051 as categorically different, and paying too much attention to significance. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Winston Lin
NEW: CONSORT 2025 now published!
Some notable changes:
-items on analysis populations, missing data methods, and sensitivity analyses
-reporting of non-adherence and concomitant care
-reporting of changes to any study methods, not just outcomes
-and lots of other things
www.bmj.com/content/389/...
Some notable changes:
-items on analysis populations, missing data methods, and sensitivity analyses
-reporting of non-adherence and concomitant care
-reporting of changes to any study methods, not just outcomes
-and lots of other things
www.bmj.com/content/389/...
CONSORT 2025 explanation and elaboration: updated guideline for reporting randomised trials
Critical appraisal of the quality of randomised trials is possible only if their design, conduct, analysis, and results are completely and accurately reported. Without transparent reporting of the met...
www.bmj.com
April 15, 2025 at 10:32 AM
NEW: CONSORT 2025 now published!
Some notable changes:
-items on analysis populations, missing data methods, and sensitivity analyses
-reporting of non-adherence and concomitant care
-reporting of changes to any study methods, not just outcomes
-and lots of other things
www.bmj.com/content/389/...
Some notable changes:
-items on analysis populations, missing data methods, and sensitivity analyses
-reporting of non-adherence and concomitant care
-reporting of changes to any study methods, not just outcomes
-and lots of other things
www.bmj.com/content/389/...
Reposted by Winston Lin
How to write a response to reviewers. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
How To Write a Response to Reviewers
www.sciencedirect.com
April 14, 2025 at 12:22 PM
How to write a response to reviewers. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Winston Lin
today we will all read imbens 2021 on statistical significance and p values, which is a strong contender for having the best opening paragraph of any stats paper
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
April 6, 2025 at 2:05 AM
today we will all read imbens 2021 on statistical significance and p values, which is a strong contender for having the best opening paragraph of any stats paper
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
Reposted by Winston Lin
Here's some older, related stuff (from me) aimed at political scientists.
Related paper #1
"Arguing for a Negligible Effect"
Journal: onlinelibrary.wiley....
PDF: www.carlislerainey.c...
Related paper #1
"Arguing for a Negligible Effect"
Journal: onlinelibrary.wiley....
PDF: www.carlislerainey.c...
March 10, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Here's some older, related stuff (from me) aimed at political scientists.
Related paper #1
"Arguing for a Negligible Effect"
Journal: onlinelibrary.wiley....
PDF: www.carlislerainey.c...
Related paper #1
"Arguing for a Negligible Effect"
Journal: onlinelibrary.wiley....
PDF: www.carlislerainey.c...
Reposted by Winston Lin
"The Need for Equivalence Testing in Economics"
from Jack Fitzgerald (@jackfitzgerald.bsky.social)
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...
We know that "not significant" does not imply evidence for "no effect," but I still see papers make this leap.
Good to see more work making this point forcefully!
from Jack Fitzgerald (@jackfitzgerald.bsky.social)
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...
We know that "not significant" does not imply evidence for "no effect," but I still see papers make this leap.
Good to see more work making this point forcefully!
March 10, 2025 at 3:23 PM
"The Need for Equivalence Testing in Economics"
from Jack Fitzgerald (@jackfitzgerald.bsky.social)
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...
We know that "not significant" does not imply evidence for "no effect," but I still see papers make this leap.
Good to see more work making this point forcefully!
from Jack Fitzgerald (@jackfitzgerald.bsky.social)
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...
We know that "not significant" does not imply evidence for "no effect," but I still see papers make this leap.
Good to see more work making this point forcefully!
Reposted by Winston Lin
An important plea from @lizstuart.bsky.social in today's SCI-OCIS Special Webinar Series:
February 19, 2025 at 5:43 PM
An important plea from @lizstuart.bsky.social in today's SCI-OCIS Special Webinar Series:
Reposted by Winston Lin
Good thread. I will add, another disadvantage of the current system of opacity is a great deal of interesting thought + work in referee reports is highly underutilized (never read by anyone other than author + editor)
In economics, editors, referees, and authors often behave as if a published paper should reflect some kind of authoritative consensus.
As a result, valuable debate happens in secret, and the resulting paper is an opaque compromise with anonymous co-authors called referees.
1/
As a result, valuable debate happens in secret, and the resulting paper is an opaque compromise with anonymous co-authors called referees.
1/
December 24, 2024 at 5:20 PM
Good thread. I will add, another disadvantage of the current system of opacity is a great deal of interesting thought + work in referee reports is highly underutilized (never read by anyone other than author + editor)
Reposted by Winston Lin
Because I've seen the law of iterated expectations, Jensen's inequality, and the central limit theorem mentioned in the past few days, I'll migrate one of my early Twitter posts about the tools necessary to master econometrics -- which includes each of those. Here it is.
December 5, 2024 at 12:07 AM
Because I've seen the law of iterated expectations, Jensen's inequality, and the central limit theorem mentioned in the past few days, I'll migrate one of my early Twitter posts about the tools necessary to master econometrics -- which includes each of those. Here it is.
Reposted by Winston Lin
I quite like this platform, but it would be even better if we had:
- bookmarks
- DMs
- polls
- bookmarks
- DMs
- polls
October 1, 2023 at 7:16 PM
I quite like this platform, but it would be even better if we had:
- bookmarks
- DMs
- polls
- bookmarks
- DMs
- polls
The downfall of 3 is that sometimes you might find yourself working with someone who doesn't push you. A good mentor will sometimes make you uncomfortable by challenging your work. They will sometimes tell you that this isn't as good as you can do. That's valuable.
September 23, 2023 at 3:34 AM
Reposted by Winston Lin
3. Find a mentor who supports you, but also pushes you in ways that work for you. There are many ways to be a good supervisor, and not every style works for every person. Find someone who's style works for you.
September 22, 2023 at 1:32 PM
3. Find a mentor who supports you, but also pushes you in ways that work for you. There are many ways to be a good supervisor, and not every style works for every person. Find someone who's style works for you.
Reposted by Winston Lin
@lmiratrix.bsky.social is now on Bluesky!
September 22, 2023 at 6:45 PM
@lmiratrix.bsky.social is now on Bluesky!