The Leuthold Group
@leutholdgroup.bsky.social
Independent Institutional Financial Research
Disclosure: http://funds.leutholdgroup.com
Distributor: Quasar Distributors, LLC
Disclosure: http://funds.leutholdgroup.com
Distributor: Quasar Distributors, LLC
GS High Retail Sentiment (meme stocks) is another "exuberance group," like Unprofitable Tech and Highly Shorted indexes (but a much shorter history). It peaked sharply in 2021, quickly gave up all the gain, then drifted until this year, when it again melted up to a fresh high. #Meme #Sentiment
December 29, 2025 at 11:03 PM
GS High Retail Sentiment (meme stocks) is another "exuberance group," like Unprofitable Tech and Highly Shorted indexes (but a much shorter history). It peaked sharply in 2021, quickly gave up all the gain, then drifted until this year, when it again melted up to a fresh high. #Meme #Sentiment
Most shorted R3K names plunged during pandemic, surged 219% in ‘21 euphoria, then fully retreated, ceding all gains, moving sideways for yrs. In 2025, they again joined the melt-up (+126%) into the Nov. peak, just like Unprofitable Tech index. Overall, buying speculative stocks is a losing tactic.
December 26, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Most shorted R3K names plunged during pandemic, surged 219% in ‘21 euphoria, then fully retreated, ceding all gains, moving sideways for yrs. In 2025, they again joined the melt-up (+126%) into the Nov. peak, just like Unprofitable Tech index. Overall, buying speculative stocks is a losing tactic.
Based on the Manufacturing Sector's average hourly wage, one would need to work 204.4 hours to purchase a single S&P 500 unit (data through Q3-25). This lands in the 10th decile of the distribution (stocks most expensive), 1947 to date. $SPX #Wages
December 24, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Based on the Manufacturing Sector's average hourly wage, one would need to work 204.4 hours to purchase a single S&P 500 unit (data through Q3-25). This lands in the 10th decile of the distribution (stocks most expensive), 1947 to date. $SPX #Wages
Buying speculative names is a poor tactic and is apt to lag badly over a market cycle. Ex: Unprofitable Tech stagnated till 2020, soared 350% in the frothy '21 market, then sank to zero and stagnated for several yrs. In 2025, amid AI hype, it surged again (+143%) only to drop on the adverse AI news
2021.In
December 23, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Buying speculative names is a poor tactic and is apt to lag badly over a market cycle. Ex: Unprofitable Tech stagnated till 2020, soared 350% in the frothy '21 market, then sank to zero and stagnated for several yrs. In 2025, amid AI hype, it surged again (+143%) only to drop on the adverse AI news
Last decade's perennial bearishness toward U.S. Treasuries has continued in the 2020s. In fact, bond bears have grown even more emboldened the last few years, pushing net short positions to new extremes. #Treasuries #BondBears
December 22, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Last decade's perennial bearishness toward U.S. Treasuries has continued in the 2020s. In fact, bond bears have grown even more emboldened the last few years, pushing net short positions to new extremes. #Treasuries #BondBears
Cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron
December 19, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron
During the 2010s, the Copper/Gold ratio served as an effective gauge for economic trends and a dependable predictor of bond yield movements. However, since 2020, this relationship has broken down, as interest rates have become less correlated with business cycles. $GLD #MarketTrends
December 19, 2025 at 6:02 PM
During the 2010s, the Copper/Gold ratio served as an effective gauge for economic trends and a dependable predictor of bond yield movements. However, since 2020, this relationship has broken down, as interest rates have become less correlated with business cycles. $GLD #MarketTrends
Last week's slight edge of the Equal-Weighted S&P 500 over the Cap-Weighted index revived the short-term trend since November lows, boosting optimism among active managers. Yet, 2025 is set to be another tough year for the EW $SPX. #StockMarket #Investing
December 18, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Last week's slight edge of the Equal-Weighted S&P 500 over the Cap-Weighted index revived the short-term trend since November lows, boosting optimism among active managers. Yet, 2025 is set to be another tough year for the EW $SPX. #StockMarket #Investing
2010s vs 2020s: Term Premium usually tracks inflation outlooks; since 2020 it has repriced a new reality. Added to a worsened U.S. fiscal state & less foreign appetite, it appears the secular bond bull likely ended in 2020; probably one of the defining features of this decade. #Inflation
December 17, 2025 at 2:45 PM
2010s vs 2020s: Term Premium usually tracks inflation outlooks; since 2020 it has repriced a new reality. Added to a worsened U.S. fiscal state & less foreign appetite, it appears the secular bond bull likely ended in 2020; probably one of the defining features of this decade. #Inflation
Inflation 2010s vs. 2020s: Last decade, U.S. CPI > Fed’s 2% target ~40% of the time; Citi U.S. Inflation Surprise Index was higher than thought ~12% of the time. Since 2020, CPI >2% a stunning 83% of the time and ISI has been higher 59% of the time. #Inflation
December 15, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Inflation 2010s vs. 2020s: Last decade, U.S. CPI > Fed’s 2% target ~40% of the time; Citi U.S. Inflation Surprise Index was higher than thought ~12% of the time. Since 2020, CPI >2% a stunning 83% of the time and ISI has been higher 59% of the time. #Inflation
Last week $RUT and DJ Composite each rang a new high. Excellent action in Dow Transports (still 1-yr removed from its own all-time high) boosted the DJ Comp. A few more highs across these bellwethers soon, would go a long way alleviate our Technical anxiety. (Four of which are <1% away.)
December 11, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Last week $RUT and DJ Composite each rang a new high. Excellent action in Dow Transports (still 1-yr removed from its own all-time high) boosted the DJ Comp. A few more highs across these bellwethers soon, would go a long way alleviate our Technical anxiety. (Four of which are <1% away.)
Vastly superior performance of U.S. assets in the 2010s might have seemed impossible to repeat, but U.S. exceptionalism is alive and well this decade. 2020 to date, U.S. stocks +15.9% annl vs DM (+9.5%) and EM (+7.8%). U.S. bonds also ahead of global peers by 120 bps annually #InvestingTrends
December 10, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Vastly superior performance of U.S. assets in the 2010s might have seemed impossible to repeat, but U.S. exceptionalism is alive and well this decade. 2020 to date, U.S. stocks +15.9% annl vs DM (+9.5%) and EM (+7.8%). U.S. bonds also ahead of global peers by 120 bps annually #InvestingTrends
YTD composite earnings suggest widespread prosperity, lifting $SPX T12-mo EPS by 13.8%. But this growth has been as concentrated as the market's mega-cap leadership: Tech/Comm posted combined +29% avg growth vs. other 9 sectors’ collective +5% (barely matching gain in nominal GDP).
ex-Tech.Com
December 9, 2025 at 12:00 AM
YTD composite earnings suggest widespread prosperity, lifting $SPX T12-mo EPS by 13.8%. But this growth has been as concentrated as the market's mega-cap leadership: Tech/Comm posted combined +29% avg growth vs. other 9 sectors’ collective +5% (barely matching gain in nominal GDP).
Nvidia's Oct. surge propelled the S&P 500 Top Ten Index (+5.4%) to its biggest monthly lead this year over $SPX Equal-Weighted Index (-0.9%). Since last March, the Top Ten has climbed 48% versus a 10% gain for the EW S&P 500. #StockMarket #Investing $NVDA
November 13, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Nvidia's Oct. surge propelled the S&P 500 Top Ten Index (+5.4%) to its biggest monthly lead this year over $SPX Equal-Weighted Index (-0.9%). Since last March, the Top Ten has climbed 48% versus a 10% gain for the EW S&P 500. #StockMarket #Investing $NVDA
A prime period for stocks has begun. Historically, the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted index sees a remarkable +19.5% annualized gain from Nov-Apr, compared to just +4.1% during the May-Oct lull. (Results12/31/88 thru 10/31/25) #StockMarket #InvestmentOpportunity
November 11, 2025 at 2:30 PM
A prime period for stocks has begun. Historically, the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted index sees a remarkable +19.5% annualized gain from Nov-Apr, compared to just +4.1% during the May-Oct lull. (Results12/31/88 thru 10/31/25) #StockMarket #InvestmentOpportunity
In report by #PaulLaMonica, Leuthold’s Opsal notes: Blue chips are feeling no love in this growth-fired market, of late, but don’t ignore Quality—it’s had solid results in recent years and kept pace with the Mag-7 fueled $SPX dub.sh/qTJyKnW @Barronsonline $COST $COKE #paywall
October 31, 2025 at 4:45 PM
In report by #PaulLaMonica, Leuthold’s Opsal notes: Blue chips are feeling no love in this growth-fired market, of late, but don’t ignore Quality—it’s had solid results in recent years and kept pace with the Mag-7 fueled $SPX dub.sh/qTJyKnW @Barronsonline $COST $COKE #paywall
Leuthold PM Phil Segner talks with #SarahHansen Sr Reporter
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing
Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?
Stocks keep marching higher, but there are signs of strain under the surface.
dub.sh
October 27, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Leuthold PM Phil Segner talks with #SarahHansen Sr Reporter
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing
On the lighter side, cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron #AIRevolution #Investing
October 24, 2025 at 7:30 PM
On the lighter side, cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron #AIRevolution #Investing
Blue-chip Dividend Aristocrats often perform well when markets dip and hold their ground in most rising markets (except today's large-cap surge). When the AI hype cools, #Aristocrats are set to stay competitive. If a recession hits, they're apt to outperform. #DividendInvesting #Economy
October 23, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Blue-chip Dividend Aristocrats often perform well when markets dip and hold their ground in most rising markets (except today's large-cap surge). When the AI hype cools, #Aristocrats are set to stay competitive. If a recession hits, they're apt to outperform. #DividendInvesting #Economy
"The stock market’s long rise is masking underlying economic weakness and pushing off a recession," Doug Ramsey Leuthold CIO via @BW "What should we do with our money these days? These financial experts have a few ideas" www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
www.bloomberg.com
October 16, 2025 at 6:30 PM
"The stock market’s long rise is masking underlying economic weakness and pushing off a recession," Doug Ramsey Leuthold CIO via @BW "What should we do with our money these days? These financial experts have a few ideas" www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
Leuthold research cited by @Investopedia: Your S&P 500 index fund might lack diversity, with Nvidia being a key factor. www.investopedia.com/your-s-and-p...
Your S&P 500 Index Fund Might Not Be as Diverse As You Think—And You Can Blame Nvidia for That
Not all S&P 500 companies are created equal. In fact, if you’ve invested in a fund that tracks the S&P 500, you might be surprised how heavily it’s weighted to a single company: Nvidia (NVDA).
www.investopedia.com
October 15, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Leuthold research cited by @Investopedia: Your S&P 500 index fund might lack diversity, with Nvidia being a key factor. www.investopedia.com/your-s-and-p...
The S&P 500 is notably overvalued compared to house prices. Through Q2-25, just 72 $SPX units were needed to buy a median-priced home. Back in 1968, acquiring a median home (around $19,700) required about 210 S&P 500 units. #RealEstate #Investing
September 30, 2025 at 7:02 PM
The S&P 500 is notably overvalued compared to house prices. Through Q2-25, just 72 $SPX units were needed to buy a median-priced home. Back in 1968, acquiring a median home (around $19,700) required about 210 S&P 500 units. #RealEstate #Investing