Josh Lehner
@lehnerjw.bsky.social
Husband. Father. Economist. I run to eat terrible food and drink good beer. Chiefs. Timbers. Sooners.
Yikes. It’s all speculation right now. But if the R&D shrinks that’s a full fledged regional economic problem.
April 4, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Yikes. It’s all speculation right now. But if the R&D shrinks that’s a full fledged regional economic problem.
Really enjoying @jonathanmbach.bsky.social new book on Bend housing that’s really about Oregon/Blue states, land use, affordability. But, as good reporters do, he pairs it with the humanity of the housing crisis, including his own.
March 27, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Really enjoying @jonathanmbach.bsky.social new book on Bend housing that’s really about Oregon/Blue states, land use, affordability. But, as good reporters do, he pairs it with the humanity of the housing crisis, including his own.
Portland domestic migration is back to treading water. Urban neighborhoods still negative, but metro region at 0 over past year, implying some positive quarters. Baseline outlook is still for small, positive gains but will see. I was fooled by the head fake 18 mths ago.
March 4, 2025 at 1:06 AM
Portland domestic migration is back to treading water. Urban neighborhoods still negative, but metro region at 0 over past year, implying some positive quarters. Baseline outlook is still for small, positive gains but will see. I was fooled by the head fake 18 mths ago.
January 27, 2025 at 1:23 AM
Got 👦🏻 a jersey 👕 of his favorite soccer player ⚽️ for Christmas 🎅 He plays as him in video games 🎮 Our shared 👨🏻🍼soccer fantasy team 🧝🏻♂️ is named The Martinezes. But one of them is not like the others 😍😈🤡 Yes this also counts as a United relegation battle tweet 🤣
January 1, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Got 👦🏻 a jersey 👕 of his favorite soccer player ⚽️ for Christmas 🎅 He plays as him in video games 🎮 Our shared 👨🏻🍼soccer fantasy team 🧝🏻♂️ is named The Martinezes. But one of them is not like the others 😍😈🤡 Yes this also counts as a United relegation battle tweet 🤣
Merry Christmas everyone. Don’t be jealous, but you too can get Nobel prize winner book on institutions as well 📈📊🤓❤️
December 25, 2024 at 4:28 PM
Merry Christmas everyone. Don’t be jealous, but you too can get Nobel prize winner book on institutions as well 📈📊🤓❤️
Census with early Xmas present with revised data showing oregon population growing! Gains all international migration, which unlikely to continue, but up is up for now. Need domestic migration to rebound to to see labor force growth.
December 21, 2024 at 7:37 PM
Census with early Xmas present with revised data showing oregon population growing! Gains all international migration, which unlikely to continue, but up is up for now. Need domestic migration to rebound to to see labor force growth.
Another successful family Christmas tree hunting trip 🌲🪓l🧑🧑🧒🧒🎄
December 1, 2024 at 3:14 AM
Another successful family Christmas tree hunting trip 🌲🪓l🧑🧑🧒🧒🎄
Thankful for a lot, including my hip that hurts after multiple rounds of footgolf in recent days 👦🏻 ⚽️⛳️ 🦃 🍂 Little man thankful for two 50 yard shots he sank 🔥
November 28, 2024 at 3:45 PM
Thankful for a lot, including my hip that hurts after multiple rounds of footgolf in recent days 👦🏻 ⚽️⛳️ 🦃 🍂 Little man thankful for two 50 yard shots he sank 🔥
Post a perfect album from the 90s that isn’t Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Soundgarden, or Alice In Chains.
November 19, 2024 at 4:06 AM
Post a perfect album from the 90s that isn’t Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Soundgarden, or Alice In Chains.
Post a picture you took (no description) to bring some zen to the timeline
November 17, 2024 at 7:43 PM
Post a picture you took (no description) to bring some zen to the timeline
🚨 2024 Christmas Movie Thread 🚨
Hot Frosty. Netflix. This movie was so fetch. Perfect ensemble cast! Ted, Boyle, Doug Judy. 9.5/10. Lots of notes and questions. Mostly wtf is wrong with this town? Nobody finds it weird! At all? Also Jesus like vibes/plot? For a snowman?
Hot Frosty. Netflix. This movie was so fetch. Perfect ensemble cast! Ted, Boyle, Doug Judy. 9.5/10. Lots of notes and questions. Mostly wtf is wrong with this town? Nobody finds it weird! At all? Also Jesus like vibes/plot? For a snowman?
November 17, 2024 at 6:00 AM
🚨 2024 Christmas Movie Thread 🚨
Hot Frosty. Netflix. This movie was so fetch. Perfect ensemble cast! Ted, Boyle, Doug Judy. 9.5/10. Lots of notes and questions. Mostly wtf is wrong with this town? Nobody finds it weird! At all? Also Jesus like vibes/plot? For a snowman?
Hot Frosty. Netflix. This movie was so fetch. Perfect ensemble cast! Ted, Boyle, Doug Judy. 9.5/10. Lots of notes and questions. Mostly wtf is wrong with this town? Nobody finds it weird! At all? Also Jesus like vibes/plot? For a snowman?
New Oregon population estimates from Portland State. Big news is ~50k downward revision, in part due to IRS data. Now not much diff b/w PSU & Census. Census ‘24 data in Dec. Impacts: likely none for forecast, expect mediocre growth, but size of potential labor force ~30k smaller
November 16, 2024 at 7:02 PM
New Oregon population estimates from Portland State. Big news is ~50k downward revision, in part due to IRS data. Now not much diff b/w PSU & Census. Census ‘24 data in Dec. Impacts: likely none for forecast, expect mediocre growth, but size of potential labor force ~30k smaller
I’m becoming more optimistic on remodeling. Fundamentals are aging stock, record home equity, and demographics (millennials about to hit remodel yrs), but also lock-in effect. If you can’t sell/trade up you fix up what you have. Similar to post GFC when stuck in place due to LTV.
November 13, 2024 at 1:08 AM
I’m becoming more optimistic on remodeling. Fundamentals are aging stock, record home equity, and demographics (millennials about to hit remodel yrs), but also lock-in effect. If you can’t sell/trade up you fix up what you have. Similar to post GFC when stuck in place due to LTV.
New state data from BEA. Oregon's overall economy shows solid, middle of the pack growth. However when combined with a stagnant population, Oregon is Top 10 in economic outcomes for residents, things like real GDP per worker & per capita personal income.
September 28, 2024 at 5:14 AM
New state data from BEA. Oregon's overall economy shows solid, middle of the pack growth. However when combined with a stagnant population, Oregon is Top 10 in economic outcomes for residents, things like real GDP per worker & per capita personal income.
Oregonians moving across river to SW WA are increasingly higher income (unlike other migrants moving there). However the increase isn’t about super high income HHs (>$200k) it about the broad upper middle class ($100-200k) movers. (PDX is tricounty, NonPDX is all other OR + other states)
March 16, 2024 at 2:03 AM
Oregonians moving across river to SW WA are increasingly higher income (unlike other migrants moving there). However the increase isn’t about super high income HHs (>$200k) it about the broad upper middle class ($100-200k) movers. (PDX is tricounty, NonPDX is all other OR + other states)
Rogue Valley Outlook. Summary and slides from SOREDI State of the Rogue Valley event in Medford this week: oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2024/02/29/r...
March 2, 2024 at 4:23 PM
Rogue Valley Outlook. Summary and slides from SOREDI State of the Rogue Valley event in Medford this week: oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2024/02/29/r...
Oregon is becoming more diverse. About 1/3 Millennials & 4/10 Zoomers identify as BIPOC compared to 10-15% of older adults. And while there are ownership disparities these are beginning to decline some. OR homeowners are 17% BIPOC but 25% of new mortgage originations are going to BIPOC borrowers.
February 25, 2024 at 8:10 PM
Oregon is becoming more diverse. About 1/3 Millennials & 4/10 Zoomers identify as BIPOC compared to 10-15% of older adults. And while there are ownership disparities these are beginning to decline some. OR homeowners are 17% BIPOC but 25% of new mortgage originations are going to BIPOC borrowers.
Looking at county GDP (output), most of OR are broadly in the middle of the pack nationally. There are some clear high flyers but even slower gains aren’t exactly national laggards. Overall this cycle, the state has seen good output gains and average job growth, which means strong local productivity
December 12, 2023 at 10:20 PM
Looking at county GDP (output), most of OR are broadly in the middle of the pack nationally. There are some clear high flyers but even slower gains aren’t exactly national laggards. Overall this cycle, the state has seen good output gains and average job growth, which means strong local productivity
Southern Oregon median household income by census tract. Lots of interesting patterns here! I have upcoming presentations in K Falls and Medford. Will explore other regional patterns in the data too. This map is new ACS 5 yr estimates, using tidycensus in R, with label editing assist from ChatGPT
December 9, 2023 at 4:30 PM
Southern Oregon median household income by census tract. Lots of interesting patterns here! I have upcoming presentations in K Falls and Medford. Will explore other regional patterns in the data too. This map is new ACS 5 yr estimates, using tidycensus in R, with label editing assist from ChatGPT
Where did the people leaving Portland move to? Half stayed on West Coast w 30% to WA (19% Clark Co), 19% to CA. Broadly speaking tho most moved to locales with better affordability. Housing underpins migration even if _____ issue(s) still important. oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2023/12/07/w...
December 7, 2023 at 5:51 PM
Where did the people leaving Portland move to? Half stayed on West Coast w 30% to WA (19% Clark Co), 19% to CA. Broadly speaking tho most moved to locales with better affordability. Housing underpins migration even if _____ issue(s) still important. oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2023/12/07/w...
Portland November 2023 home sales. Market continues to adjust. Inventory and New Listings +10% y/y. With rates falling, Pending Sales now just -4% with prices steady (median 0.3%, avg 2.0%).
December 6, 2023 at 9:07 PM
Portland November 2023 home sales. Market continues to adjust. Inventory and New Listings +10% y/y. With rates falling, Pending Sales now just -4% with prices steady (median 0.3%, avg 2.0%).
Working from home in the PNW, Oregon, and Portland regions using 2022 ACS data. Back on the tidycensus bandwagon in R.
December 2, 2023 at 1:14 AM
Working from home in the PNW, Oregon, and Portland regions using 2022 ACS data. Back on the tidycensus bandwagon in R.
🚨 New Oregon Pop Data 🚨 PSU 2023 estimates are out. +0.5% this year following downwardly revised 2022 to essentially flat. Clackamas was vast majority of revision. Big picture, pop a hair under forecast after revisions. Now let’s see what Census says in the coming weeks.
November 23, 2023 at 8:07 PM
🚨 New Oregon Pop Data 🚨 PSU 2023 estimates are out. +0.5% this year following downwardly revised 2022 to essentially flat. Clackamas was vast majority of revision. Big picture, pop a hair under forecast after revisions. Now let’s see what Census says in the coming weeks.