Learn Biotech Investing
@learnbiotech.bsky.social
Learn to invest in biotech like the professionals from a former biotech executive and investment banker. For education purposes only.
Course on Thinkific
learnbiotechinvesting.thinkific.com
Course on Thinkific
learnbiotechinvesting.thinkific.com
The context of the data matter. How does it stack up against the competition? Is there other competition?
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 27, 2025 at 11:00 AM
The context of the data matter. How does it stack up against the competition? Is there other competition?
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors must continually assess the ever-changing Standard of Care landscape. It could change and make a positive clinical result less relevant
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 26, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Investors must continually assess the ever-changing Standard of Care landscape. It could change and make a positive clinical result less relevant
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Approved drugs can have a "black box" (aka boxed) warning, the highest safety-related warning that FDA can put on an approved drug
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
November 25, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Approved drugs can have a "black box" (aka boxed) warning, the highest safety-related warning that FDA can put on an approved drug
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
As we say here often: "A press release is a marketing document, an SEC filing is a legal document"
Read the SEC filings! They exist to help #investors! And they are freely available, often on the company website
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Read the SEC filings! They exist to help #investors! And they are freely available, often on the company website
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 24, 2025 at 11:00 AM
As we say here often: "A press release is a marketing document, an SEC filing is a legal document"
Read the SEC filings! They exist to help #investors! And they are freely available, often on the company website
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Read the SEC filings! They exist to help #investors! And they are freely available, often on the company website
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It's important for investors to assess the clinical meaningfulness of a result
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 23, 2025 at 1:00 PM
It's important for investors to assess the clinical meaningfulness of a result
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Defining patient populations matter for investors. Ovarian cancer patient recurrence to 2nd line platinum therapy is influenced by how long their tumor was controlled by 1st line therapy
Probability of response to 2L Pt is low for refractory (~0%) or resistant (~10%)
#learnbiotechinvesting
Probability of response to 2L Pt is low for refractory (~0%) or resistant (~10%)
#learnbiotechinvesting
November 22, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Defining patient populations matter for investors. Ovarian cancer patient recurrence to 2nd line platinum therapy is influenced by how long their tumor was controlled by 1st line therapy
Probability of response to 2L Pt is low for refractory (~0%) or resistant (~10%)
#learnbiotechinvesting
Probability of response to 2L Pt is low for refractory (~0%) or resistant (~10%)
#learnbiotechinvesting
Sometimes a #reversemerger or #SPAC can result in a high value (>$1B) #biotech buyout. Both ways enable private companies to go public without an #IPO
Here's a selected list:
Any others I'm missing?
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's a selected list:
Any others I'm missing?
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 21, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Sometimes a #reversemerger or #SPAC can result in a high value (>$1B) #biotech buyout. Both ways enable private companies to go public without an #IPO
Here's a selected list:
Any others I'm missing?
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's a selected list:
Any others I'm missing?
Who will be next?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
The #HazardRatio measures the effect of an intervention on an outcome of interest OVER TIME
Its an important metric for patients since it gives them a better understanding of the risk they face over time rather than when the median patient will progress or die
#learnbiotechinvesting
Its an important metric for patients since it gives them a better understanding of the risk they face over time rather than when the median patient will progress or die
#learnbiotechinvesting
November 20, 2025 at 11:00 AM
The #HazardRatio measures the effect of an intervention on an outcome of interest OVER TIME
Its an important metric for patients since it gives them a better understanding of the risk they face over time rather than when the median patient will progress or die
#learnbiotechinvesting
Its an important metric for patients since it gives them a better understanding of the risk they face over time rather than when the median patient will progress or die
#learnbiotechinvesting
Here's an annotated #KaplanMeier curve to help investors know what information is being presented.
It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.
These metrics give different views of a drug.
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.
These metrics give different views of a drug.
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 19, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Here's an annotated #KaplanMeier curve to help investors know what information is being presented.
It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.
These metrics give different views of a drug.
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.
These metrics give different views of a drug.
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors must understand the patents which protect a drug. It's essential to determine the drug's revenue opportunity and therefore value
There are 3 main types, with composition of matter being the most important.
But remember that not all patents are equal; some are stronger than others
There are 3 main types, with composition of matter being the most important.
But remember that not all patents are equal; some are stronger than others
November 17, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Investors must understand the patents which protect a drug. It's essential to determine the drug's revenue opportunity and therefore value
There are 3 main types, with composition of matter being the most important.
But remember that not all patents are equal; some are stronger than others
There are 3 main types, with composition of matter being the most important.
But remember that not all patents are equal; some are stronger than others
Investors should consider the half-life of various radio-isotopes used in radiotherapy
It has implications for manufacturing, ligand residence time, and dosing frequency
Beta-emitters (esp Lu-177) are more common due to approved infrastructure, but alpha-emitters (esp Ac-225) are growing fast
It has implications for manufacturing, ligand residence time, and dosing frequency
Beta-emitters (esp Lu-177) are more common due to approved infrastructure, but alpha-emitters (esp Ac-225) are growing fast
November 16, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Investors should consider the half-life of various radio-isotopes used in radiotherapy
It has implications for manufacturing, ligand residence time, and dosing frequency
Beta-emitters (esp Lu-177) are more common due to approved infrastructure, but alpha-emitters (esp Ac-225) are growing fast
It has implications for manufacturing, ligand residence time, and dosing frequency
Beta-emitters (esp Lu-177) are more common due to approved infrastructure, but alpha-emitters (esp Ac-225) are growing fast
Intellectual property #IP & probability of success #POS are unique to biotech valuations
Investors must embrace these facets of biotech if they want to be successful
Note that assumptions around both may differ
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors must embrace these facets of biotech if they want to be successful
Note that assumptions around both may differ
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 15, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Intellectual property #IP & probability of success #POS are unique to biotech valuations
Investors must embrace these facets of biotech if they want to be successful
Note that assumptions around both may differ
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors must embrace these facets of biotech if they want to be successful
Note that assumptions around both may differ
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors, remember that the FDA puts out a wealth of information about drug candidates ahead of a potential approval
A serious investor MUST read these!
They are the ultimate arbiter for approval in the US
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A serious investor MUST read these!
They are the ultimate arbiter for approval in the US
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 14, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Investors, remember that the FDA puts out a wealth of information about drug candidates ahead of a potential approval
A serious investor MUST read these!
They are the ultimate arbiter for approval in the US
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A serious investor MUST read these!
They are the ultimate arbiter for approval in the US
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?
Look for: target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Look for: target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 13, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?
Look for: target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Look for: target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A key variable for investors is management reputation
A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view
Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good & bad
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view
Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good & bad
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
November 10, 2025 at 12:00 PM
A key variable for investors is management reputation
A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view
Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good & bad
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view
Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good & bad
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Investors will often see ORR quoted or displayed for oncology clinical trial results for solid tumors
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 7, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Investors will often see ORR quoted or displayed for oncology clinical trial results for solid tumors
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Intellectual property #IP & probability of success #POS are unique to biotech valuations
Investors must embrace these facets of biotech if they want to be successful
Note that assumptions around both may differ
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors must embrace these facets of biotech if they want to be successful
Note that assumptions around both may differ
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 6, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Intellectual property #IP & probability of success #POS are unique to biotech valuations
Investors must embrace these facets of biotech if they want to be successful
Note that assumptions around both may differ
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors must embrace these facets of biotech if they want to be successful
Note that assumptions around both may differ
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Pharma has varying levels of success developing drugs. That's a boon for biotech
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
November 4, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Pharma has varying levels of success developing drugs. That's a boon for biotech
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Incorporating Probability of Success (PoS) is a unique aspect of #biotech valuation investors must be aware of.
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Incorporating Probability of Success (PoS) is a unique aspect of #biotech valuation investors must be aware of.
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should keep in mind that a drug on the market after an accelerated approval can later be withdrawn if the confirmatory study doesn't show favorable risk/benefit on an approvable endpoint
Here are recent oncology examples but it also happens in other TAs (women's health)
Here are recent oncology examples but it also happens in other TAs (women's health)
November 2, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Investors should keep in mind that a drug on the market after an accelerated approval can later be withdrawn if the confirmatory study doesn't show favorable risk/benefit on an approvable endpoint
Here are recent oncology examples but it also happens in other TAs (women's health)
Here are recent oncology examples but it also happens in other TAs (women's health)
Investors should know WHAT will move a stock & WHEN, especially in biotech with the outsized moves. Build your catalyst calendar ahead of time.
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
October 31, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Investors should know WHAT will move a stock & WHEN, especially in biotech with the outsized moves. Build your catalyst calendar ahead of time.
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should beware of drug revenue forecasts. They're often wildly off, either too high or too low
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
October 30, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Investors should beware of drug revenue forecasts. They're often wildly off, either too high or too low
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Another reason a P3 study can fail while a P2 was successful is that P2 placebo groups, with narrower eligibility criteria & fewer patients, often have more variable placebo-adjusted effects
Use Phase 3 data, often on drug labels, to make comparisons; They're more consistent
#BiotechPrometheus
Use Phase 3 data, often on drug labels, to make comparisons; They're more consistent
#BiotechPrometheus
October 29, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Another reason a P3 study can fail while a P2 was successful is that P2 placebo groups, with narrower eligibility criteria & fewer patients, often have more variable placebo-adjusted effects
Use Phase 3 data, often on drug labels, to make comparisons; They're more consistent
#BiotechPrometheus
Use Phase 3 data, often on drug labels, to make comparisons; They're more consistent
#BiotechPrometheus
Here's some data for #investors when trying to benchmark the costs of pivotal clinical trials (2015-2017)
You can see it varies by Therapeutic Area
Remember, good clinical trials CANNOT be done on the cheap!
If anyone has updated numbers, please share!!!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
You can see it varies by Therapeutic Area
Remember, good clinical trials CANNOT be done on the cheap!
If anyone has updated numbers, please share!!!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
October 28, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Here's some data for #investors when trying to benchmark the costs of pivotal clinical trials (2015-2017)
You can see it varies by Therapeutic Area
Remember, good clinical trials CANNOT be done on the cheap!
If anyone has updated numbers, please share!!!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
You can see it varies by Therapeutic Area
Remember, good clinical trials CANNOT be done on the cheap!
If anyone has updated numbers, please share!!!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
An important model for biotechs is an epidemiology build: an #epibuild
It takes a disease prevalence (or incidence) and turns it into annual revenue. This is what is plugged into other models
Here's an example:
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It takes a disease prevalence (or incidence) and turns it into annual revenue. This is what is plugged into other models
Here's an example:
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
October 27, 2025 at 10:00 AM
An important model for biotechs is an epidemiology build: an #epibuild
It takes a disease prevalence (or incidence) and turns it into annual revenue. This is what is plugged into other models
Here's an example:
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It takes a disease prevalence (or incidence) and turns it into annual revenue. This is what is plugged into other models
Here's an example:
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus