Michael Kovrig
@kovrig.bsky.social
Senior Adviser, Asia @crisisgroup.org | Strategic narratives on China, Indo-Pacific, geopolitics, geoeconomics, philosophy and values. Ex-diplomat. Don't start none, won't be none. 实事求是。己所不欲,勿施於人 https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelkovrig
Democracies should coordinate with each other to develop a set of coherent long-term strategies that protect values, interests and sovereign decision-making as we pass through this geopolitically decisive decade. 5/5
November 19, 2025 at 5:57 PM
Democracies should coordinate with each other to develop a set of coherent long-term strategies that protect values, interests and sovereign decision-making as we pass through this geopolitically decisive decade. 5/5
I urge Canada and like-minded societies to diversify partnerships, rebuild industrial and military capacity, strengthen alliances, expose CCP influence, protect citizens and critical sectors and supply chains, and shape corporate incentives to avoid economic dependence. 4/5
November 19, 2025 at 5:57 PM
I urge Canada and like-minded societies to diversify partnerships, rebuild industrial and military capacity, strengthen alliances, expose CCP influence, protect citizens and critical sectors and supply chains, and shape corporate incentives to avoid economic dependence. 4/5
Through mercantilist industrial, trade and investment policies, technological theft, foreign interference, transnational repression, and a massive military buildup, the Party is weaponizing economic and strategic dependence and conditioning the behaviour of other governments. 3/5
November 19, 2025 at 5:57 PM
Through mercantilist industrial, trade and investment policies, technological theft, foreign interference, transnational repression, and a massive military buildup, the Party is weaponizing economic and strategic dependence and conditioning the behaviour of other governments. 3/5
The CCP is reshaping China into a more centralized, coercive, and security-driven state while pursuing three major goals: displacing the United States, dominating East Asia and the Western Pacific, and reshaping global governance to reflect its authoritarian worldview and serve its interests. 2/5
November 19, 2025 at 5:57 PM
The CCP is reshaping China into a more centralized, coercive, and security-driven state while pursuing three major goals: displacing the United States, dominating East Asia and the Western Pacific, and reshaping global governance to reflect its authoritarian worldview and serve its interests. 2/5
“While (the Canadians) are flying around the Korean peninsula, imposing UN sanctions that China as a Security Council member has agreed with,” China’s People Liberation Army Air Force has “threatened and behaved in a hostile manner toward those Canadian Armed Forces pilots."
November 19, 2025 at 12:03 AM
“While (the Canadians) are flying around the Korean peninsula, imposing UN sanctions that China as a Security Council member has agreed with,” China’s People Liberation Army Air Force has “threatened and behaved in a hostile manner toward those Canadian Armed Forces pilots."
“Without China’s support, neither (North Korea or Russia) could be doing what they’re doing,” I told Global.
November 19, 2025 at 12:03 AM
“Without China’s support, neither (North Korea or Russia) could be doing what they’re doing,” I told Global.
I think the reason for the aggressive posture is that China is tacitly tolerating and sometimes even enabling Pyongyang’s efforts to evade sanctions and develop its nuclear weapons program, and doesn’t want any visibility on its permissive stance.
November 19, 2025 at 12:03 AM
I think the reason for the aggressive posture is that China is tacitly tolerating and sometimes even enabling Pyongyang’s efforts to evade sanctions and develop its nuclear weapons program, and doesn’t want any visibility on its permissive stance.
In October 2023, a Chinese military jet intercepted another Canadian patrol flight in what officials described as a dangerous and “aggressive manner,” coming within about five metres of the Canadian plane and prompting an official complaint to Beijing from the Canadian government.
November 19, 2025 at 12:03 AM
In October 2023, a Chinese military jet intercepted another Canadian patrol flight in what officials described as a dangerous and “aggressive manner,” coming within about five metres of the Canadian plane and prompting an official complaint to Beijing from the Canadian government.
They tailed the Canadian plane at a close but safe distance, according to Brig.-Gen. Davis. The Canadian crew told Jeff that these intercepts have become a regular occurrence during their patrol missions.
November 19, 2025 at 12:03 AM
They tailed the Canadian plane at a close but safe distance, according to Brig.-Gen. Davis. The Canadian crew told Jeff that these intercepts have become a regular occurrence during their patrol missions.
China watches these sanctions-enforcement missions closely. During the RCAF patrol flight over the East China Sea, Global News saw Chinese fighter jets intercept the Aurora plane on three separate occasions over several hours.
November 19, 2025 at 12:03 AM
China watches these sanctions-enforcement missions closely. During the RCAF patrol flight over the East China Sea, Global News saw Chinese fighter jets intercept the Aurora plane on three separate occasions over several hours.
My @crisisgroup.org colleague Christopher Green also told @globalnews.ca, “We used to get lots of evidence through the UN panel of experts on North Korean sanctions before the Russians vetoed the renewal of that panel’s mandate in 2024..." [G]eopolitical shifts have worked in NK’s favour..."
November 19, 2025 at 12:03 AM
My @crisisgroup.org colleague Christopher Green also told @globalnews.ca, “We used to get lots of evidence through the UN panel of experts on North Korean sanctions before the Russians vetoed the renewal of that panel’s mandate in 2024..." [G]eopolitical shifts have worked in NK’s favour..."
Operation NEON is at the frontlines of sanctions enforcement on the DPRK. Jeff hitched a ride on a Canadian Armed Forces CP-140 Aurora spotting for ships carrying illicit cargo.
Story and info on Op NEON linked in the comments. Check out the video here:
Story and info on Op NEON linked in the comments. Check out the video here:
Operation Neon: RCAF members tracking North Korean ships suspected of UN violations | Watch News Videos Online
Watch Operation Neon: RCAF members tracking North Korean ships suspected of UN violations Video Online, on GlobalNews.ca
globalnews.ca
November 19, 2025 at 12:03 AM
Operation NEON is at the frontlines of sanctions enforcement on the DPRK. Jeff hitched a ride on a Canadian Armed Forces CP-140 Aurora spotting for ships carrying illicit cargo.
Story and info on Op NEON linked in the comments. Check out the video here:
Story and info on Op NEON linked in the comments. Check out the video here:
Still, enlightened support and engagement from partners can make a material difference. If the U.S. Congress would pass its proposed Pacific Partnership Act, that would be a step in the right direction.
www.congress.gov
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Still, enlightened support and engagement from partners can make a material difference. If the U.S. Congress would pass its proposed Pacific Partnership Act, that would be a step in the right direction.
At September’s PIF Leaders Meeting, innovative policymaking included the “Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration” and new partnership rules setting norms for a region free from militarization and coercion, upholding international law and sovereignty. Communique PDF:
forumsec.org
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
At September’s PIF Leaders Meeting, innovative policymaking included the “Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration” and new partnership rules setting norms for a region free from militarization and coercion, upholding international law and sovereignty. Communique PDF:
Pacific officials and journalists express deep concern about widespread reports of graft and influence activities deployed to advance Chinese state objectives—a suite of tactics remarkably similar to what Philip Zelikow and his co-authors have defined in @foreignaffairs.com as #StrategicCorruption.
The Rise of Strategic Corruption
A number of countries—China and Russia, in particular—are turning corruption into a weapon on the global stage.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Pacific officials and journalists express deep concern about widespread reports of graft and influence activities deployed to advance Chinese state objectives—a suite of tactics remarkably similar to what Philip Zelikow and his co-authors have defined in @foreignaffairs.com as #StrategicCorruption.
As military scholars Andrew Erickson and Joel Wuthnow
have noted, Chinese analysts have adopted the American concept of island chains that serve as springboards for Western military, milestones for the PLA to measure its own force projection, and concentric chains of containment China must break.
have noted, Chinese analysts have adopted the American concept of island chains that serve as springboards for Western military, milestones for the PLA to measure its own force projection, and concentric chains of containment China must break.
“Barriers, Springboards and Benchmarks: China Conceptualizes the Pacific ‘Island Chains’”—Published as Lead Article in The China Quarterly | Andrew S. Erickson
www.andrewerickson.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
As military scholars Andrew Erickson and Joel Wuthnow
have noted, Chinese analysts have adopted the American concept of island chains that serve as springboards for Western military, milestones for the PLA to measure its own force projection, and concentric chains of containment China must break.
have noted, Chinese analysts have adopted the American concept of island chains that serve as springboards for Western military, milestones for the PLA to measure its own force projection, and concentric chains of containment China must break.
A Chinese presence in the Pacific also expands its ability to interfere with U.S. efforts to assemble and sustain Indo-Pacific coalitions:
The Case for a Pacific Defense Pact
America needs a new Asian alliance to counter China.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
A Chinese presence in the Pacific also expands its ability to interfere with U.S. efforts to assemble and sustain Indo-Pacific coalitions:
The PLAN also seeks to prevent America from acting as an offshore balancer
The Case for Offshore Balancing
The United States should forgo efforts to remake other societies and concentrate on preserving U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere and countering potential hegemons elsewhere. Such an “offshore b...
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
The PLAN also seeks to prevent America from acting as an offshore balancer
China’s Pacific gambit is part of its efforts to escape the constraints of a continental power and become a maritime great power, as this recent @foreignaffairs.com essay argues:
By Land or by Sea
Continental power, maritime power, and the fight for a new world order.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
China’s Pacific gambit is part of its efforts to escape the constraints of a continental power and become a maritime great power, as this recent @foreignaffairs.com essay argues:
