Jason J
@kc5knd.bsky.social
NWS Meteorologist/Master Instructor. Probabilistic forecasting, severe wx, radar, ML/AI, a little bit of this n that!
67° at Noon on Jan 4th? Yeah, I’ll get the bike out and do a 13 mile ride to get my mind off all the…stuff..going on in the world & U.S. Only snow to be seen is on the higher peaks of the Front Range, nothing down here in the lower elevations 😞
January 4, 2026 at 8:29 PM
67° at Noon on Jan 4th? Yeah, I’ll get the bike out and do a 13 mile ride to get my mind off all the…stuff..going on in the world & U.S. Only snow to be seen is on the higher peaks of the Front Range, nothing down here in the lower elevations 😞
The best forecasts for #Vietnam and HCMC are from ensembles; deterministic outputs are all over the place as shown by Apple Wx vs Rain Viewer vs OpenSnow (ECMWF ens). Day of, nowcasting is definitely the way to go as short-range models are over the place and watching radar reigns supreme.
December 24, 2025 at 7:31 AM
The best forecasts for #Vietnam and HCMC are from ensembles; deterministic outputs are all over the place as shown by Apple Wx vs Rain Viewer vs OpenSnow (ECMWF ens). Day of, nowcasting is definitely the way to go as short-range models are over the place and watching radar reigns supreme.
#vietnam street food, seafood edition. Bourdain was right, you’ve got to risk eating at the places that look seedy, that you normally would not, to get the true experience and flavors of any country.
December 21, 2025 at 2:48 PM
#vietnam street food, seafood edition. Bourdain was right, you’ve got to risk eating at the places that look seedy, that you normally would not, to get the true experience and flavors of any country.
Northern-style Bún Chả at Quan Nem which is slightly different from the southern #Vietnam style we tried last time. You may know it from when Bourdain and Obama dined in Hanoi in 2016. We may not be in Hanoi but it was REALLY good! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bun_cha
December 19, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Northern-style Bún Chả at Quan Nem which is slightly different from the southern #Vietnam style we tried last time. You may know it from when Bourdain and Obama dined in Hanoi in 2016. We may not be in Hanoi but it was REALLY good! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bun_cha
Reposted by Jason J
Our office's first "Particularly Dangerous Situation" RFW was issued today, unfortunately.
Goal here isn't fear, but widespread awareness and preparedness. Wildfire risk management requires a collective approach across all facets of society. Without it, these types of days are much more dangerous.
Goal here isn't fear, but widespread awareness and preparedness. Wildfire risk management requires a collective approach across all facets of society. Without it, these types of days are much more dangerous.
December 19, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Our office's first "Particularly Dangerous Situation" RFW was issued today, unfortunately.
Goal here isn't fear, but widespread awareness and preparedness. Wildfire risk management requires a collective approach across all facets of society. Without it, these types of days are much more dangerous.
Goal here isn't fear, but widespread awareness and preparedness. Wildfire risk management requires a collective approach across all facets of society. Without it, these types of days are much more dangerous.
Pasteur Street Barrel Aged Stout (13% ABV) and a burger on a nice night in #HCMC #Vietnam . Having family here helps in finding the good spots but I still say Vietnam is an amazing country to visit with a bit of planning and advice. And the food from restaurants to street stalls…chefs kiss. 🤤
December 15, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Went to historic Saigon Central Post Office. Super polite lady asked multiple times what I was sending.
“Post cards”
“Is that all?”
“Yes, just post cards”
“Anything other than cards?”
“No, just post cards 🤨”
“Many you don’t realize how hard & expensive is sending goods to US now. Cards OK.”
😞😡
“Post cards”
“Is that all?”
“Yes, just post cards”
“Anything other than cards?”
“No, just post cards 🤨”
“Many you don’t realize how hard & expensive is sending goods to US now. Cards OK.”
😞😡
December 15, 2025 at 5:22 AM
Went to historic Saigon Central Post Office. Super polite lady asked multiple times what I was sending.
“Post cards”
“Is that all?”
“Yes, just post cards”
“Anything other than cards?”
“No, just post cards 🤨”
“Many you don’t realize how hard & expensive is sending goods to US now. Cards OK.”
😞😡
“Post cards”
“Is that all?”
“Yes, just post cards”
“Anything other than cards?”
“No, just post cards 🤨”
“Many you don’t realize how hard & expensive is sending goods to US now. Cards OK.”
😞😡
Back in one of our favorite places. Fighting a bit of a travel cold but not enough of one to keep us from phờ and finding a bar with local brew Belgium-style beers…
December 12, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Back in one of our favorite places. Fighting a bit of a travel cold but not enough of one to keep us from phờ and finding a bar with local brew Belgium-style beers…
So frustrating when contracted snow plow is supposed to come with 4"+ in the morning. Doesn't show so I shovel off said 4" in the alley just in case I need to get the Jeep out. Plow show up at 3 pm & leave a berm of snow blocking my garage. Oh, and up to 9" of snowfall and 6" depth. #cowx
December 3, 2025 at 11:42 PM
So frustrating when contracted snow plow is supposed to come with 4"+ in the morning. Doesn't show so I shovel off said 4" in the alley just in case I need to get the Jeep out. Plow show up at 3 pm & leave a berm of snow blocking my garage. Oh, and up to 9" of snowfall and 6" depth. #cowx
Reposted by Jason J
A horrific accident early Saturday morning left a car in the side of an NWS office and the office relying on the NWS service backup system. Service backup is important in situations like this - but also is being increasingly used due to NWS staffing and infrastructure issues. tinyurl.com/4txuyhbz
Tragic vehicle accident takes an NWS office offline
Looking at how the NWS offices back each other up. Severe weather and flash flooding in the south central US next couple of days.
tinyurl.com
November 23, 2025 at 7:02 PM
A horrific accident early Saturday morning left a car in the side of an NWS office and the office relying on the NWS service backup system. Service backup is important in situations like this - but also is being increasingly used due to NWS staffing and infrastructure issues. tinyurl.com/4txuyhbz
Playing with dynamical.org data in zarr format online (which is SUPER fast compared to downloading raw GEFS grib2 and converting locally. Why can't NWS do this???) Anyway, looking like Thanksgiving could be a bit chilly around these parts...all GEFS members 1st plot and quantiles/median second plot
November 12, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Playing with dynamical.org data in zarr format online (which is SUPER fast compared to downloading raw GEFS grib2 and converting locally. Why can't NWS do this???) Anyway, looking like Thanksgiving could be a bit chilly around these parts...all GEFS members 1st plot and quantiles/median second plot
#Aurora pretty much gone here from DEN metro. So was this the initial X1 CME hit or did the X5 CME catch up and surprise us all? Guess I’ll have to set an hourly alarm to look out the window to make sure there aren’t any more substorms tonight and swing by SWPC tomorrow morning for insight. #cowx
November 12, 2025 at 3:01 AM
Cruddy screenshot from my Cloud AWIPS system but in my 30+ years of meteorology experience, the data coming out of #Melissa is nothing short of incredible, and deeply saddening. Jamaica will be in rough shape after this for a long time to come…
October 28, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Cruddy screenshot from my Cloud AWIPS system but in my 30+ years of meteorology experience, the data coming out of #Melissa is nothing short of incredible, and deeply saddening. Jamaica will be in rough shape after this for a long time to come…
Enderlin, ND tor #1 from 20 June 2025 upgraded to EF-5. A good reminder that 1) post-event analyses take time & 2) external expert opinion is invaluable. Having been on EF-5 surveys, seemingly small details can make big difference (i.e. tree damage)
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...
IEM :: PNS from NWS FGF
PNS issued by NWS FGF at 06 Oct 2025 14:30 UTC
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu
October 6, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Enderlin, ND tor #1 from 20 June 2025 upgraded to EF-5. A good reminder that 1) post-event analyses take time & 2) external expert opinion is invaluable. Having been on EF-5 surveys, seemingly small details can make big difference (i.e. tree damage)
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...
Winter is coming (but taking a hiatus for the next week according to the ensembles). Snow on the Front Range peaks, but not on the Flatirons. #cowx #snowseason (full disclosure; Apple AI helped remove cars on US 36; stop & go traffic on Davidson Mesa brought you this pic)
September 24, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Winter is coming (but taking a hiatus for the next week according to the ensembles). Snow on the Front Range peaks, but not on the Flatirons. #cowx #snowseason (full disclosure; Apple AI helped remove cars on US 36; stop & go traffic on Davidson Mesa brought you this pic)
Folks around McCook, Nebraska are going to have a free ice cold swimming pool; storm and occasional supercell parked just north of the surface frontal boundary dropping 3” hail and radar estimates pushing 4” of rain… #newx
September 16, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Folks around McCook, Nebraska are going to have a free ice cold swimming pool; storm and occasional supercell parked just north of the surface frontal boundary dropping 3” hail and radar estimates pushing 4” of rain… #newx
It’s hard to see but that is an Extreme Forecast Index of 0.5 off the coast of SoCal late week. The black lines are Shift of Tails…of over 8 (contour maxes out at 8). NWS EFI/SoT (firewalled) shows greater than 10 SoT! 😳 Chance for extreme precip is medium but could be extreme w/ high SoT values!
September 15, 2025 at 2:18 PM
It’s hard to see but that is an Extreme Forecast Index of 0.5 off the coast of SoCal late week. The black lines are Shift of Tails…of over 8 (contour maxes out at 8). NWS EFI/SoT (firewalled) shows greater than 10 SoT! 😳 Chance for extreme precip is medium but could be extreme w/ high SoT values!