Kabir K.
@kabirkhanna.bsky.social
Elections and Data Analytics at CBS News | Princeton political science PhD
*Independents who voted for Trump in 2024* began term nearly unanimous in approving of his job handling... three in ten of them now disapprove
February: 94%
Apr-Mar: 81-89% range
Jun-Oct: 75-79%
Latest: 69%
That's a 25-point drop since initial reading — likely related to views on prices below
2/2
February: 94%
Apr-Mar: 81-89% range
Jun-Oct: 75-79%
Latest: 69%
That's a 25-point drop since initial reading — likely related to views on prices below
2/2
November 23, 2025 at 4:19 PM
*Independents who voted for Trump in 2024* began term nearly unanimous in approving of his job handling... three in ten of them now disapprove
February: 94%
Apr-Mar: 81-89% range
Jun-Oct: 75-79%
Latest: 69%
That's a 25-point drop since initial reading — likely related to views on prices below
2/2
February: 94%
Apr-Mar: 81-89% range
Jun-Oct: 75-79%
Latest: 69%
That's a 25-point drop since initial reading — likely related to views on prices below
2/2
Super helpful, thanks David!
November 19, 2025 at 3:33 AM
Super helpful, thanks David!
Younger Trump were likelier to flip:
12% of <45 (women more than men)
5% of 45+
Notable: 13% of White voters <30
Moms > dads:
14% moms
4% dads
5% no kids
Those pinched financially:
14% family incomes <50K
5% higher incomes
14% of those falling behind
5% of those getting ahead/holding steady
2/2
12% of <45 (women more than men)
5% of 45+
Notable: 13% of White voters <30
Moms > dads:
14% moms
4% dads
5% no kids
Those pinched financially:
14% family incomes <50K
5% higher incomes
14% of those falling behind
5% of those getting ahead/holding steady
2/2
November 12, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Younger Trump were likelier to flip:
12% of <45 (women more than men)
5% of 45+
Notable: 13% of White voters <30
Moms > dads:
14% moms
4% dads
5% no kids
Those pinched financially:
14% family incomes <50K
5% higher incomes
14% of those falling behind
5% of those getting ahead/holding steady
2/2
12% of <45 (women more than men)
5% of 45+
Notable: 13% of White voters <30
Moms > dads:
14% moms
4% dads
5% no kids
Those pinched financially:
14% family incomes <50K
5% higher incomes
14% of those falling behind
5% of those getting ahead/holding steady
2/2
NYC isn't the country...
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
The voters Mamdani added to the Democratic coalition in New York, a CBS News analysis
Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign turned out lots of voters who didn't back Kamala Harris last year — they are ethnically diverse, younger and less affluent.
www.cbsnews.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:07 AM
NYC isn't the country...
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
Jackson Heights in Queens a good illustration...
Heavily Asian/Latino neighborhood that leans Democratic
Harris won 56% in '24, with Trump doing better than expected
Our estimates suggest Mamdani matching Harris percetage, due to flipping non-trivial share of Trump voters + lots of new voters
5/
Heavily Asian/Latino neighborhood that leans Democratic
Harris won 56% in '24, with Trump doing better than expected
Our estimates suggest Mamdani matching Harris percetage, due to flipping non-trivial share of Trump voters + lots of new voters
5/
November 12, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Jackson Heights in Queens a good illustration...
Heavily Asian/Latino neighborhood that leans Democratic
Harris won 56% in '24, with Trump doing better than expected
Our estimates suggest Mamdani matching Harris percetage, due to flipping non-trivial share of Trump voters + lots of new voters
5/
Heavily Asian/Latino neighborhood that leans Democratic
Harris won 56% in '24, with Trump doing better than expected
Our estimates suggest Mamdani matching Harris percetage, due to flipping non-trivial share of Trump voters + lots of new voters
5/
Mamdani-not-Harris voters also differ attitudinally...
Fewer identify as Democrat/liberal, and while they disapprove of Trump, most say he wasn't a factor in vote
They are likelier to describe economy negatively and feel that they're falling behind
And they took longer to decide on their vote
4/
Fewer identify as Democrat/liberal, and while they disapprove of Trump, most say he wasn't a factor in vote
They are likelier to describe economy negatively and feel that they're falling behind
And they took longer to decide on their vote
4/
November 12, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Mamdani-not-Harris voters also differ attitudinally...
Fewer identify as Democrat/liberal, and while they disapprove of Trump, most say he wasn't a factor in vote
They are likelier to describe economy negatively and feel that they're falling behind
And they took longer to decide on their vote
4/
Fewer identify as Democrat/liberal, and while they disapprove of Trump, most say he wasn't a factor in vote
They are likelier to describe economy negatively and feel that they're falling behind
And they took longer to decide on their vote
4/
Mamdani-not-Harris voters demographically different from consistent D voters...
Plurality Asian and plurality Muslim (29%)
Less likely to be college grads, tend to have lower incomes
And while Mamdani enjoyed strong youth support, Mamdani-not-Harris voters are even younger: two thirds are <45
3/
Plurality Asian and plurality Muslim (29%)
Less likely to be college grads, tend to have lower incomes
And while Mamdani enjoyed strong youth support, Mamdani-not-Harris voters are even younger: two thirds are <45
3/
November 12, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Mamdani-not-Harris voters demographically different from consistent D voters...
Plurality Asian and plurality Muslim (29%)
Less likely to be college grads, tend to have lower incomes
And while Mamdani enjoyed strong youth support, Mamdani-not-Harris voters are even younger: two thirds are <45
3/
Plurality Asian and plurality Muslim (29%)
Less likely to be college grads, tend to have lower incomes
And while Mamdani enjoyed strong youth support, Mamdani-not-Harris voters are even younger: two thirds are <45
3/
Our polling suggests 15% of Mamdani voters did NOT back Harris in 2024, because they preferred Trump, voted third party, or just didn't vote
Even higher share of Mamdani-not-Harris voters never voted for mayor before
Queens where Mamdani flipped most Trump voters, turned out lots of new voters
2/
Even higher share of Mamdani-not-Harris voters never voted for mayor before
Queens where Mamdani flipped most Trump voters, turned out lots of new voters
2/
November 12, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Our polling suggests 15% of Mamdani voters did NOT back Harris in 2024, because they preferred Trump, voted third party, or just didn't vote
Even higher share of Mamdani-not-Harris voters never voted for mayor before
Queens where Mamdani flipped most Trump voters, turned out lots of new voters
2/
Even higher share of Mamdani-not-Harris voters never voted for mayor before
Queens where Mamdani flipped most Trump voters, turned out lots of new voters
2/
Virginia also shows signs of Latino shift (see Manassas/Manassas Park)
Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!)
NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration
Read more below
3/3
Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!)
NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration
Read more below
3/3
Latino voters swing toward Democrats in 2025 after Trump's 2024 historic gains
Mikie Sherrill flipped 18% of Latino Trump voters and won Latino men and women in her race for New Jersey governor.
www.cbsnews.com
November 8, 2025 at 1:14 AM
Virginia also shows signs of Latino shift (see Manassas/Manassas Park)
Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!)
NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration
Read more below
3/3
Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!)
NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration
Read more below
3/3
Passaic County precinct analysis shows strong correlation between % Latino and swing
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
November 8, 2025 at 12:55 AM
Passaic County precinct analysis shows strong correlation between % Latino and swing
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Seems plausible, but how did you get to 70-30?
November 6, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Seems plausible, but how did you get to 70-30?