Lessons from Lebanon’s civil war, Israeli invasion in 1982 and Hezbollah’s rise thereafter, point to a tumultuous period ahead for Beirut whether it chooses path of confronting Hezbollah or ignoring Israel.

There's been so much exaggeration of what the MBS visit is and isn't but on China specifically:
- Saudi ties are rooted
- Think Neom, oil, tech, education
- Expanding US ties is not decoupling from China
- MBS particularly forged closer relations with Beijing BEFORE becoming CP

- No defense pact, no nuclear energy deal yet. Shows limitations of White House. Both require Congress

- Seeing some lazy takes on China. This is not a realignment.

Okay, let's unpack:
- If you are MBS, you cannot possibly wish for a better reception/visit. Full comeback for Saudi Crown Prince, after being shunned post-Khashoggi murder
- F-35s will take time but significant esp if similar to Israel's. Expect a DC political battle

Gen. Haykal will likely still visit at a later date but this cancelation brings to light the amount of tension between Trump admin and Beirut + pressure on Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, join Abraham Accords. Army is most stable, most reliable institution in the country.

Lessons from the past (UAE, Turkey), F-35 sales take time, are complicated but early win for Saudi as MBS makes first visit since 2018.

Some background:
- Saudi is requesting 48 F-35s
- Israel is only Middle Eastern country to have jets
- UAE was approved but then suspended in 2021
- Turkey lost membership to F-35 consortium in 2019

China was the only country to abstain at UNSC from vote removing Sharaa from terror list. Russia, others went along with US draft. But move shows Beijing reluctance in approaching Islamist leadership in Syria when its asks on TIP, foreign fighters have not been met.

Trump admin is prodding Saudi Arabia to take steps toward normalization with Israel. Both defense pact and normalization are long shots at this stage due to Senate approval requirement (pact) and carnage in Gaza/ Netanyahu Gov. (normalization).

Trump making full circle on Syria, betting that Sharaa will deliver on Iran, intel sharing and Israel. Key benchmarks to watch from visit:
- Sanctions repeal
- Security arrangement that includes Israel
- anti-ISIS coordination
- Reconstruction bids
- US troops presence

- US bureaucratic measures
None of above is met yet. Sharaa arrives in Washington this weekend, meeting Trump Monday.