Joumanna Bercetche
@joumanna.bsky.social
Bloomberg TV anchor & journalist in Dubai. Reformed banker… once upon a time a central bank nerd. I will post about the Mideast & economics / global markets but mostly here for the bants
‼️Major Mideast Escalation as Israel strikes Iranian nuclear facilities,takes out 2 senior Iranian commanders (head of IRGC & chief of staff of armed forces),warns more strikes will come
Iran vows crushing response
Oil was +10% now +7% as Iran says oil infra damage is limited
Iran vows crushing response
Oil was +10% now +7% as Iran says oil infra damage is limited
June 13, 2025 at 6:44 AM
‼️Major Mideast Escalation as Israel strikes Iranian nuclear facilities,takes out 2 senior Iranian commanders (head of IRGC & chief of staff of armed forces),warns more strikes will come
Iran vows crushing response
Oil was +10% now +7% as Iran says oil infra damage is limited
Iran vows crushing response
Oil was +10% now +7% as Iran says oil infra damage is limited
I think he said thank you
May 18, 2025 at 12:45 PM
I think he said thank you
Good morning. Back for Day 2 in Riyadh!
On today’s agenda
10am local : GCC leaders family photo
10.15am: GCC plenary session . MBS opens with remarks then Trump speaks again
On today’s agenda
10am local : GCC leaders family photo
10.15am: GCC plenary session . MBS opens with remarks then Trump speaks again
May 14, 2025 at 6:05 AM
Good morning. Back for Day 2 in Riyadh!
On today’s agenda
10am local : GCC leaders family photo
10.15am: GCC plenary session . MBS opens with remarks then Trump speaks again
On today’s agenda
10am local : GCC leaders family photo
10.15am: GCC plenary session . MBS opens with remarks then Trump speaks again
US secured $600bn in commitments from Saudi Arabia
* this is the same figure MBS and Trump spoke about in January after their phone call
* this is the same figure MBS and Trump spoke about in January after their phone call
May 13, 2025 at 2:19 PM
US secured $600bn in commitments from Saudi Arabia
* this is the same figure MBS and Trump spoke about in January after their phone call
* this is the same figure MBS and Trump spoke about in January after their phone call
Historic greeting
Crown Prince MBS and President Trump’s handshake in Riyadh
No awkward fist bumps today
Crown Prince MBS and President Trump’s handshake in Riyadh
No awkward fist bumps today
May 13, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Historic greeting
Crown Prince MBS and President Trump’s handshake in Riyadh
No awkward fist bumps today
Crown Prince MBS and President Trump’s handshake in Riyadh
No awkward fist bumps today
US odds of a recession have dropped from 65% to 44% (and will likely edge even lower after today's US China news). Data is with 24h lag
Source: Polymarket
Source: Polymarket
May 12, 2025 at 9:43 AM
US odds of a recession have dropped from 65% to 44% (and will likely edge even lower after today's US China news). Data is with 24h lag
Source: Polymarket
Source: Polymarket
Good morning ! صباح الخير!
Live in Riyadh today and tracking Trump’s visit through the GCC all week
Today talking through what’s on the agenda : diplomacy, deals and a controversial (potential) Qatari Boeing gift
Live in Riyadh today and tracking Trump’s visit through the GCC all week
Today talking through what’s on the agenda : diplomacy, deals and a controversial (potential) Qatari Boeing gift
May 12, 2025 at 4:15 AM
Good morning ! صباح الخير!
Live in Riyadh today and tracking Trump’s visit through the GCC all week
Today talking through what’s on the agenda : diplomacy, deals and a controversial (potential) Qatari Boeing gift
Live in Riyadh today and tracking Trump’s visit through the GCC all week
Today talking through what’s on the agenda : diplomacy, deals and a controversial (potential) Qatari Boeing gift
Interesting that despite stabilization in risky assets, prediction odds of a US recession keep rising
Polymarket odds of recession in 2025: 66%
Polymarket odds of recession in 2025: 66%
May 2, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Interesting that despite stabilization in risky assets, prediction odds of a US recession keep rising
Polymarket odds of recession in 2025: 66%
Polymarket odds of recession in 2025: 66%
True story
My phone …
My phone …
May 1, 2025 at 12:13 PM
True story
My phone …
My phone …
Why is oil plummeting?
- unhelpful global demand signals
- reports that OPEC+ may once again look to increase production / add extra barrels at the upcoming May 5 meeting
Watch convo with Anthony Di Paola today
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe3O...
- unhelpful global demand signals
- reports that OPEC+ may once again look to increase production / add extra barrels at the upcoming May 5 meeting
Watch convo with Anthony Di Paola today
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe3O...
May 1, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Why is oil plummeting?
- unhelpful global demand signals
- reports that OPEC+ may once again look to increase production / add extra barrels at the upcoming May 5 meeting
Watch convo with Anthony Di Paola today
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe3O...
- unhelpful global demand signals
- reports that OPEC+ may once again look to increase production / add extra barrels at the upcoming May 5 meeting
Watch convo with Anthony Di Paola today
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe3O...
Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro called the GDP report “the best negative print I have ever seen in my life” in an interview Wednesday with CNBC
May 1, 2025 at 3:47 AM
Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro called the GDP report “the best negative print I have ever seen in my life” in an interview Wednesday with CNBC
Dovish BOJ
No hike as expected but change in language
"Risks to prices are also skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026." Last report had risks to upside!
2027 core CPI forecast is 1.9%, below 2% target
No hike as expected but change in language
"Risks to prices are also skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026." Last report had risks to upside!
2027 core CPI forecast is 1.9%, below 2% target
May 1, 2025 at 3:10 AM
Dovish BOJ
No hike as expected but change in language
"Risks to prices are also skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026." Last report had risks to upside!
2027 core CPI forecast is 1.9%, below 2% target
No hike as expected but change in language
"Risks to prices are also skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026." Last report had risks to upside!
2027 core CPI forecast is 1.9%, below 2% target
Global stocks set to end the month in the green (after all that)
April 30, 2025 at 2:29 AM
Global stocks set to end the month in the green (after all that)
US deal activity didn't get the Trump Bump
GS's David Solomon told Francine Lacqua yday that private equity dealmaking &the number of mergers over $500mm actually increased in Q1
"My own belief is things will settle down,we’ll have a clearer policy perspective&some normalization of capital markets”
GS's David Solomon told Francine Lacqua yday that private equity dealmaking &the number of mergers over $500mm actually increased in Q1
"My own belief is things will settle down,we’ll have a clearer policy perspective&some normalization of capital markets”
April 30, 2025 at 2:02 AM
US deal activity didn't get the Trump Bump
GS's David Solomon told Francine Lacqua yday that private equity dealmaking &the number of mergers over $500mm actually increased in Q1
"My own belief is things will settle down,we’ll have a clearer policy perspective&some normalization of capital markets”
GS's David Solomon told Francine Lacqua yday that private equity dealmaking &the number of mergers over $500mm actually increased in Q1
"My own belief is things will settle down,we’ll have a clearer policy perspective&some normalization of capital markets”
Interesting
GS Global Financial Conditions Index is back to pre-April 2nd levels
(conditions have loosened again on back of a recovery in equities and rally back in bonds)
GS Global Financial Conditions Index is back to pre-April 2nd levels
(conditions have loosened again on back of a recovery in equities and rally back in bonds)
April 29, 2025 at 3:20 AM
Interesting
GS Global Financial Conditions Index is back to pre-April 2nd levels
(conditions have loosened again on back of a recovery in equities and rally back in bonds)
GS Global Financial Conditions Index is back to pre-April 2nd levels
(conditions have loosened again on back of a recovery in equities and rally back in bonds)
Comments from the other place
April 29, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Comments from the other place
The GREATEST comeback of all time?
In Jan: Polymarket odds of the Liberals winning elections were 3%
CTV has just projected Mark Carney's Liberals to win- thanks to Trump's attacks on Canada's economy, sovereignty & suggestions it should become the 51st state which spurred a surge in nationalism
In Jan: Polymarket odds of the Liberals winning elections were 3%
CTV has just projected Mark Carney's Liberals to win- thanks to Trump's attacks on Canada's economy, sovereignty & suggestions it should become the 51st state which spurred a surge in nationalism
April 29, 2025 at 2:18 AM
The GREATEST comeback of all time?
In Jan: Polymarket odds of the Liberals winning elections were 3%
CTV has just projected Mark Carney's Liberals to win- thanks to Trump's attacks on Canada's economy, sovereignty & suggestions it should become the 51st state which spurred a surge in nationalism
In Jan: Polymarket odds of the Liberals winning elections were 3%
CTV has just projected Mark Carney's Liberals to win- thanks to Trump's attacks on Canada's economy, sovereignty & suggestions it should become the 51st state which spurred a surge in nationalism
USD is set for the worst start (first 100 days) to a Presidential term since at least 1973
April 28, 2025 at 2:30 AM
USD is set for the worst start (first 100 days) to a Presidential term since at least 1973
Markets recovery suggest the worst of market turmoil behind us
- SPX +4.5%, Nasdaq +4.7% last week
- 10y bond yields -15bps in 3 days
- HY bond index -50bps in a week (!)
- Even USD + 1.5% last week
- SPX +4.5%, Nasdaq +4.7% last week
- 10y bond yields -15bps in 3 days
- HY bond index -50bps in a week (!)
- Even USD + 1.5% last week
April 28, 2025 at 2:26 AM
Markets recovery suggest the worst of market turmoil behind us
- SPX +4.5%, Nasdaq +4.7% last week
- 10y bond yields -15bps in 3 days
- HY bond index -50bps in a week (!)
- Even USD + 1.5% last week
- SPX +4.5%, Nasdaq +4.7% last week
- 10y bond yields -15bps in 3 days
- HY bond index -50bps in a week (!)
- Even USD + 1.5% last week
US uncertainty index suggesting the worst may be behind us as Trump administration toned down the rhetoric on tariffs
April 24, 2025 at 4:25 AM
US uncertainty index suggesting the worst may be behind us as Trump administration toned down the rhetoric on tariffs
2 market positive developments
- Trump says he has no intention of firing Powell
- Bessent (in a closed door meeting) said that China and US will find a way to de-escalate in the near future
Bonus: Musk says he will devote more time to Tesla again now that his work at DOGE is “almost complete”
- Trump says he has no intention of firing Powell
- Bessent (in a closed door meeting) said that China and US will find a way to de-escalate in the near future
Bonus: Musk says he will devote more time to Tesla again now that his work at DOGE is “almost complete”
April 23, 2025 at 5:49 AM
2 market positive developments
- Trump says he has no intention of firing Powell
- Bessent (in a closed door meeting) said that China and US will find a way to de-escalate in the near future
Bonus: Musk says he will devote more time to Tesla again now that his work at DOGE is “almost complete”
- Trump says he has no intention of firing Powell
- Bessent (in a closed door meeting) said that China and US will find a way to de-escalate in the near future
Bonus: Musk says he will devote more time to Tesla again now that his work at DOGE is “almost complete”
April 2025 is on track to take its place among the most volatiles stretches on record, next to October 2008 and March 2020 (GFC/ Covid).
This time the cause is [ fill in the blank ]
This time the cause is [ fill in the blank ]
April 22, 2025 at 2:18 AM
April 2025 is on track to take its place among the most volatiles stretches on record, next to October 2008 and March 2020 (GFC/ Covid).
This time the cause is [ fill in the blank ]
This time the cause is [ fill in the blank ]
Gold
The run up in the past few months has been nothing short of extraordinary
The run up in the past few months has been nothing short of extraordinary
April 21, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Gold
The run up in the past few months has been nothing short of extraordinary
The run up in the past few months has been nothing short of extraordinary
Good morning from Dubai (we are working today)
The Bloomberg USD index yet again on the backfoot and at lowest level since January 2024 as now market is contending with
1) Trade War
2) Trump wants to fire Powell
USD assets getting sold again
The Bloomberg USD index yet again on the backfoot and at lowest level since January 2024 as now market is contending with
1) Trade War
2) Trump wants to fire Powell
USD assets getting sold again
April 21, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Good morning from Dubai (we are working today)
The Bloomberg USD index yet again on the backfoot and at lowest level since January 2024 as now market is contending with
1) Trade War
2) Trump wants to fire Powell
USD assets getting sold again
The Bloomberg USD index yet again on the backfoot and at lowest level since January 2024 as now market is contending with
1) Trade War
2) Trump wants to fire Powell
USD assets getting sold again
EUR rates diverging from the currency
When European rates outrally USD rates you'd expect currency to follow. That hasn't happened due to the recent USD selling. Very pronounced
When European rates outrally USD rates you'd expect currency to follow. That hasn't happened due to the recent USD selling. Very pronounced
April 17, 2025 at 6:07 AM
EUR rates diverging from the currency
When European rates outrally USD rates you'd expect currency to follow. That hasn't happened due to the recent USD selling. Very pronounced
When European rates outrally USD rates you'd expect currency to follow. That hasn't happened due to the recent USD selling. Very pronounced