Josh Budlender
@joshbudlender.bsky.social
Postdoc at SALDRU, University of Cape Town: Labour & Development Economics.
Firms and wages and structural transformation; programme evaluation; a bit of econ history & social policy.
And some 🇿🇦 politics :)
https://www.joshbudlender.co.za
Firms and wages and structural transformation; programme evaluation; a bit of econ history & social policy.
And some 🇿🇦 politics :)
https://www.joshbudlender.co.za
We do a lot of other stuff, e.g. compare predictions to DMP & bargaining models.
We also estimate a structural model, & (amongst other things) show that our mechanism substantially reduces intended returns to a wage subsidy/hiring credit☹️
Please read, & send us your comments!
We also estimate a structural model, & (amongst other things) show that our mechanism substantially reduces intended returns to a wage subsidy/hiring credit☹️
Please read, & send us your comments!
November 21, 2025 at 1:56 PM
We do a lot of other stuff, e.g. compare predictions to DMP & bargaining models.
We also estimate a structural model, & (amongst other things) show that our mechanism substantially reduces intended returns to a wage subsidy/hiring credit☹️
Please read, & send us your comments!
We also estimate a structural model, & (amongst other things) show that our mechanism substantially reduces intended returns to a wage subsidy/hiring credit☹️
Please read, & send us your comments!
And pattern also holds when we look at exporters’ responses to shift-share trade shocks! And point estimates are remarkably similar to LMS results.
These identified rent-sharing & firm-facing labour supply elasticities are also some of very few estimates for developing countries
These identified rent-sharing & firm-facing labour supply elasticities are also some of very few estimates for developing countries
November 21, 2025 at 1:56 PM
And pattern also holds when we look at exporters’ responses to shift-share trade shocks! And point estimates are remarkably similar to LMS results.
These identified rent-sharing & firm-facing labour supply elasticities are also some of very few estimates for developing countries
These identified rent-sharing & firm-facing labour supply elasticities are also some of very few estimates for developing countries
What about dynamic responses to such shocks? Again, prediction is borne out!
Using LMS-style value-added shocks, we find lower wage & employment responses in constrained region, while the profit share increases. Clear breaks around productivity thresholds from x-sect exercise.
Using LMS-style value-added shocks, we find lower wage & employment responses in constrained region, while the profit share increases. Clear breaks around productivity thresholds from x-sect exercise.
November 21, 2025 at 1:56 PM
What about dynamic responses to such shocks? Again, prediction is borne out!
Using LMS-style value-added shocks, we find lower wage & employment responses in constrained region, while the profit share increases. Clear breaks around productivity thresholds from x-sect exercise.
Using LMS-style value-added shocks, we find lower wage & employment responses in constrained region, while the profit share increases. Clear breaks around productivity thresholds from x-sect exercise.
And this is empirical pattern we observe using cross-sectional kink design, leveraging ~20 min. wage regimes!
With firm productivity (ACF) along x-axis, employment & profit share slopes change sharply at the wage kinks
Constrained region is economically important: ~20% of firms
With firm productivity (ACF) along x-axis, employment & profit share slopes change sharply at the wage kinks
Constrained region is economically important: ~20% of firms
November 21, 2025 at 1:56 PM
And this is empirical pattern we observe using cross-sectional kink design, leveraging ~20 min. wage regimes!
With firm productivity (ACF) along x-axis, employment & profit share slopes change sharply at the wage kinks
Constrained region is economically important: ~20% of firms
With firm productivity (ACF) along x-axis, employment & profit share slopes change sharply at the wage kinks
Constrained region is economically important: ~20% of firms
Per our simple model, we predict that firm responses to revenue-productivity increases depend on MW regime
For unconstrained firms, workers benefit via higher wages & emp
Supply-constrained firms instead absorb revenues into higher markdowns & profits. Wages & emp. do not respond!
For unconstrained firms, workers benefit via higher wages & emp
Supply-constrained firms instead absorb revenues into higher markdowns & profits. Wages & emp. do not respond!
November 21, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Per our simple model, we predict that firm responses to revenue-productivity increases depend on MW regime
For unconstrained firms, workers benefit via higher wages & emp
Supply-constrained firms instead absorb revenues into higher markdowns & profits. Wages & emp. do not respond!
For unconstrained firms, workers benefit via higher wages & emp
Supply-constrained firms instead absorb revenues into higher markdowns & profits. Wages & emp. do not respond!
We reveal new monopsonistic margin, where markdowns rise w/ productivity. Shows how link from firm gains to workers can break sharply! This may undermine inclusive development. Labour shares may be high while pass-through is weak.
@cep-lse.bsky.social Working Paper: cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publica...
@cep-lse.bsky.social Working Paper: cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publica...
November 21, 2025 at 1:56 PM
We reveal new monopsonistic margin, where markdowns rise w/ productivity. Shows how link from firm gains to workers can break sharply! This may undermine inclusive development. Labour shares may be high while pass-through is weak.
@cep-lse.bsky.social Working Paper: cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publica...
@cep-lse.bsky.social Working Paper: cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publica...
🚨New Working Paper!🚨
@ihsaanbassier.bsky.social & I start with simple stylised fact: lower productivity firms pay ~minimum wage, even as productivity increases.
What does this mean for rent sharing/passthrough? Employment? Profits?
Monopsony model + 🇿🇦 admin data = striking conclusions!
@ihsaanbassier.bsky.social & I start with simple stylised fact: lower productivity firms pay ~minimum wage, even as productivity increases.
What does this mean for rent sharing/passthrough? Employment? Profits?
Monopsony model + 🇿🇦 admin data = striking conclusions!
November 21, 2025 at 1:56 PM
🚨New Working Paper!🚨
@ihsaanbassier.bsky.social & I start with simple stylised fact: lower productivity firms pay ~minimum wage, even as productivity increases.
What does this mean for rent sharing/passthrough? Employment? Profits?
Monopsony model + 🇿🇦 admin data = striking conclusions!
@ihsaanbassier.bsky.social & I start with simple stylised fact: lower productivity firms pay ~minimum wage, even as productivity increases.
What does this mean for rent sharing/passthrough? Employment? Profits?
Monopsony model + 🇿🇦 admin data = striking conclusions!
And I mean, let's just look at South African wealth inequality, in international perspective, with this in mind
(source: amory-gethin.fr/files/pdf/Ch...)
(source: amory-gethin.fr/files/pdf/Ch...)
February 8, 2025 at 11:05 AM
And I mean, let's just look at South African wealth inequality, in international perspective, with this in mind
(source: amory-gethin.fr/files/pdf/Ch...)
(source: amory-gethin.fr/files/pdf/Ch...)
Has been decline in inter-racial inequality, but almost all driven by changes at the top. There are ~same number of black African people in top 10% as whites. But this is a country where black Africans are ~80% of population, while whites are ~8%. And look at that top 1%...
February 8, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Has been decline in inter-racial inequality, but almost all driven by changes at the top. There are ~same number of black African people in top 10% as whites. But this is a country where black Africans are ~80% of population, while whites are ~8%. And look at that top 1%...
At top of income distribution it's about jobs but also (generational) wealth. SA is obscenely unequal. And the top is absurdly white.
This graph shows racial composition of each part of SA income distribution, from poor to rich.
Source here & next tweet: amory-gethin.fr/files/pdf/Ch...
This graph shows racial composition of each part of SA income distribution, from poor to rich.
Source here & next tweet: amory-gethin.fr/files/pdf/Ch...
February 8, 2025 at 11:05 AM
At top of income distribution it's about jobs but also (generational) wealth. SA is obscenely unequal. And the top is absurdly white.
This graph shows racial composition of each part of SA income distribution, from poor to rich.
Source here & next tweet: amory-gethin.fr/files/pdf/Ch...
This graph shows racial composition of each part of SA income distribution, from poor to rich.
Source here & next tweet: amory-gethin.fr/files/pdf/Ch...
A big cause of this disparity is jobs and unemployment. And it's impossible to look at the numbers below and not see that it is directly a continued apartheid legacy (and main South African problem is *insufficient* redress & support to black South Africans, not other way round)
February 8, 2025 at 11:05 AM
A big cause of this disparity is jobs and unemployment. And it's impossible to look at the numbers below and not see that it is directly a continued apartheid legacy (and main South African problem is *insufficient* redress & support to black South Africans, not other way round)
Firstly, yes it is about apartheid. One way to see this: racial classification was (is) messy business. Many were on edge of being classified one way or another. Impact on men of being classified white rather than coloured? Huge income increase which explains >90% of observed gap
February 8, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Firstly, yes it is about apartheid. One way to see this: racial classification was (is) messy business. Many were on edge of being classified one way or another. Impact on men of being classified white rather than coloured? Huge income increase which explains >90% of observed gap
Come attend the 2024 SALDRU December Workshop!
12-13 December, School of Economics, U of Cape Town.
We've got a great list of speakers, and v pleased the keynote will be Dennis Egger (@eggerdennis.bsky.social) presenting "Slack & Economic Development".
All welcome! RSVP: forms.gle/cwdPjw7iEjqa...
12-13 December, School of Economics, U of Cape Town.
We've got a great list of speakers, and v pleased the keynote will be Dennis Egger (@eggerdennis.bsky.social) presenting "Slack & Economic Development".
All welcome! RSVP: forms.gle/cwdPjw7iEjqa...
November 29, 2024 at 8:33 AM
Come attend the 2024 SALDRU December Workshop!
12-13 December, School of Economics, U of Cape Town.
We've got a great list of speakers, and v pleased the keynote will be Dennis Egger (@eggerdennis.bsky.social) presenting "Slack & Economic Development".
All welcome! RSVP: forms.gle/cwdPjw7iEjqa...
12-13 December, School of Economics, U of Cape Town.
We've got a great list of speakers, and v pleased the keynote will be Dennis Egger (@eggerdennis.bsky.social) presenting "Slack & Economic Development".
All welcome! RSVP: forms.gle/cwdPjw7iEjqa...
Our aim is to provide a regular venue for overseas-based & local researchers to present & engage with frontier research.
We will also have a session for local PhD students.
For 2024 ad-hoc workshop, please submit papers/abstracts by 18 October, via the link above.
We will also have a session for local PhD students.
For 2024 ad-hoc workshop, please submit papers/abstracts by 18 October, via the link above.
October 4, 2024 at 9:53 AM
Our aim is to provide a regular venue for overseas-based & local researchers to present & engage with frontier research.
We will also have a session for local PhD students.
For 2024 ad-hoc workshop, please submit papers/abstracts by 18 October, via the link above.
We will also have a session for local PhD students.
For 2024 ad-hoc workshop, please submit papers/abstracts by 18 October, via the link above.
Do you want to visit sunny summer Cape Town? Are you doing innovative Economics research? Present at the
SALDRU December Workshop!
While first full workshop will start next year, we are also holding an ad-hoc version this year, *12-13 December 2024*.
Details: www.saldru.uct.ac.za/2024/10/03/s...
SALDRU December Workshop!
While first full workshop will start next year, we are also holding an ad-hoc version this year, *12-13 December 2024*.
Details: www.saldru.uct.ac.za/2024/10/03/s...
October 4, 2024 at 9:52 AM
Do you want to visit sunny summer Cape Town? Are you doing innovative Economics research? Present at the
SALDRU December Workshop!
While first full workshop will start next year, we are also holding an ad-hoc version this year, *12-13 December 2024*.
Details: www.saldru.uct.ac.za/2024/10/03/s...
SALDRU December Workshop!
While first full workshop will start next year, we are also holding an ad-hoc version this year, *12-13 December 2024*.
Details: www.saldru.uct.ac.za/2024/10/03/s...
Staggering. No South Africa 2022 Census data is going to be released on INCOME, LABOUR, & MORTALITY/FERTILITY (??? the core of most basic census results!) because of unspecified data quality issues. But we must somehow still accept Stats SA's (un-evidenced) claim that the census is fit for purpose
August 21, 2024 at 9:03 AM
Staggering. No South Africa 2022 Census data is going to be released on INCOME, LABOUR, & MORTALITY/FERTILITY (??? the core of most basic census results!) because of unspecified data quality issues. But we must somehow still accept Stats SA's (un-evidenced) claim that the census is fit for purpose
A somewhat ironic source for this claim 😬
August 19, 2024 at 9:53 AM
A somewhat ironic source for this claim 😬
Interestingly, an updated 2021 working paper of the RCT research includes this figure... so you'd think the RCT researchers would seriously investigate this apparent reason for non-payment, given the stated objectives of improving water access & revenue collection? (3/7)
November 4, 2023 at 9:24 PM
Interestingly, an updated 2021 working paper of the RCT research includes this figure... so you'd think the RCT researchers would seriously investigate this apparent reason for non-payment, given the stated objectives of improving water access & revenue collection? (3/7)
The Jacarandas are putting on a show in Pretoria 🎆
October 9, 2023 at 12:32 PM
The Jacarandas are putting on a show in Pretoria 🎆
Nice! I always think a nice framing to conclude discussion of subjective/relative/absolute poverty lines is this figure from Ravallion & Chen (2011, REStat), showing how even absolute national lines are ultimately “weakly” relative wrt income/consumption. Also where $1-a-day variants come from!
September 27, 2023 at 1:28 PM
Nice! I always think a nice framing to conclude discussion of subjective/relative/absolute poverty lines is this figure from Ravallion & Chen (2011, REStat), showing how even absolute national lines are ultimately “weakly” relative wrt income/consumption. Also where $1-a-day variants come from!