Josh Hawn🚰🔰
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josh.hawn.xyz
Josh Hawn🚰🔰
@josh.hawn.xyz
1.2K followers 1K following 1.1K posts
he/him Let’s rearrange the distribution of power and disturb the expectations of people who have assumed a continuity of privileges. 🚲🚰🔰
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josh.hawn.xyz
classic
An arm labelled "Public Housers" holds out a small glass of liquor labelled "Market Rents" to a person who refuses it, saying "No. This belongs to private landlords."
November 25, 2025 at 7:57 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
The City of Industry with it's tiny population but huge amount of commercial and industrial parcels really messes with this metric.
Jurisdiction Profile: Industry City, California Population: 264 Taxable Value per Capita: 28,585,041 Fiscal Capacity ratio: 175.24 Screenshot from the mapping tool showing an outline of the city limits of the City of Industry, CA, filled with a dark blue given its very high fiscal capacity ratio. It is surrounded by many other cities in the San Gabriel Valley with different shades of pink and red indicating they have a Fiscal capacity ratio much lower than 1.
November 24, 2025 at 8:08 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
Parody Book Cover of "Auguste Gusteau's Anyone Can COOK!" book from the Pixar Film, Rattatouille. The word "COOK" has been replaced with "CODE".
November 12, 2025 at 7:46 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
November 12, 2025 at 2:03 AM
josh.hawn.xyz
“Details in the appendix”
Appendix: Logic of Applying the Model • This section of the appendix describes in more detail how the model was used to produce estimates of future housing production. • For the existing zoning (baseline"), the application of the model is straightforward. Current zoning was encoded using the zoning classification on the previous page, and current allowable height was used as the height variable in the logistic regression, and to calculate building envelope in the units regression. • For the proposed rezoning ("policy"), the logic used was as follows: based on the units regression, each 1000 square feet of building envelope results in 0.42 units. The State Density Bonus adds an additional 0.44 units. Parcels that elect to use the Local Program therefore need to accommodate at least 0.44 additional units per 1000 square feet of envelope if developers are to choose this option. For parcels where the Local Program was more desirable, and on parcels that are ineligible for the SDB, because their zoning and size prevents them from building more than 5 units, the Local Program was applied. For all other parcels the SDB was used. 38 Appendix: Logic of Applying the Model (Continued) • Probabilities and units for any parcel using the State Density Bonus were calculated by: • In the logistic regression, using the first new height in the rezoning table for Height_Ft and in the Env_1000_Area_Height calculation. • In the units regression, using the first new height in the rezoning table to calculate Env_1000_Area_Height; • Incorporating the SDB_2016_5Plus_EnvFull effect; • Incorporating the Zoning_DR_EnvFull if applicable (i.e. the parcel is density-restricted. 39 Appendix: Logic of Applying the Model (Continued) • Probabilities and units for any parcel using the Local Program were calculated by: • In the logistic regression, setting zp_FBDMulti_RTO = 1, to account for the relaxation of density controls in the Local Program; • In the logistic regression, using the second new height in the rezoning table for Height_Ft and in the Env_1000_Area_Height calculation. • In the units regression, using the second new height in the rezoning table to calculate Env_1000_Area_Height; • In the units regression, removing the SDB_2016_5Plus_EnvFull effect; • In the units regression, removing the Zoning_DR_EnvFull effect. 40
November 5, 2025 at 5:37 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
It’s not “just one factor of 100” It’s THE primary factor that goes into the report’s estimates for likelihood of development and number of units produced”
Estimating the Likelihood of New Housing Development • The amount of new housing that the rezoning will produce is an important contributor to its economic impact. To estimate this, OEA refined a statistical model that it has used since 2016 to estimate the impact of policy changes on housing production in the city1 . • The model was the result of statistical analysis of housing production in San Francisco over the 2004-2024 period. Technical details on the model are provided in the Appendix. • The first part of the model estimates the likelihood that multifamily housing will be developed on a given parcel, in a given year. The statistical analysis found that a parcel is more likely to develop when: • it has smaller existing buildings (or is vacant), and is located closer to downtown. • its zoning allows for a greater height, makes it eligible for the State Density Bonus, and does not restrict the number of units that may be constructed. • housing prices are relatively high, and construction costs are relatively low, compared to other years. 9 10 Estimating the Number of Units Produced • The second part of the model estimates the number of units that will be produced when a parcel does develop housing. Based on past experience, the statistical analysis found that a parcel developing housing will produce more units when: • its land area and allowable maximum height are greater; • it is eligible for the State Density Bonus; • its zoning does not restrict the number of units that may be built. • The OEA used the first part of the model to estimate the probability that housing will be built on a parcel over the next twenty years2. That probability was multiplied by the estimate of housing units from the second part, to create an expected number of housing units generated for each parcel over twenty years. When this is summed across all parcels, a citywide housing total is generated. • This method was used to create estimates of housing production under the existing zon…
November 5, 2025 at 5:31 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
I am a proud taxpayer for @sfbayferry.com
Sign showing logos of Alameda County Transportation Commission and San Francisco Bay Ferry. Text reads: ‘Your voter-approved transportation dollars helped fund the construction of this ferry! For more information, visit www.AlamedaCTC.org.’ Includes an illustration of a ferry boat.
October 31, 2025 at 12:37 AM
josh.hawn.xyz
I think the Also TM-B Bike is good, especially considering that Rivian typically sells 7,000lb behemoths.
Freedom of Speech Painting by Norman Rockwell
October 22, 2025 at 9:21 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
midwit IQ bell curve meme. midwit says "biking is an elitist activity. you have to know how to bike, have a bike, have family/friends with bikes, have bike storage, have flexible work and other responsibilities..."
October 22, 2025 at 9:09 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
Good early reviews of The Land Trap by @birdyword.bsky.social

Includes praise from @jerusalem.bsky.social and others.
Early praise for The Land Trap 📖 Photo shows the back cover of the book with praise from Robin Wigglesworth, Jerusalem Demsas, Matthew Campbell, and others.
October 22, 2025 at 5:16 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
Wtf?
King George hotel sign.
October 18, 2025 at 8:51 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
The only solution to the CA Forever/East Solano/SR12 Corridor Project Discourse ✂️ 🗺️
October 16, 2025 at 4:54 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
Do you have a take on stuff like this where the crosswalks are moved back away from the intersection and bikes and peds have to make weird tight turns at intersections and cars have to block the crosswalks while they wait to make turns? I call it “curb extensions are for bioswales not people”.
Google Maps satellite image of the intersection of Saratoga Street and W Ranger Ave in Alameda, CA. It shows a newly paved street intersection with a separated bike lane. The lanes are narrow but the intersection is still quite large, likely to accommodate turning vehicles.
October 16, 2025 at 3:40 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
It's been a real roller coaster these past few years. 🥰
CA YIMBY Statement in Support of the East Solano Plan Dated June 18, 2024 CA YIMBY News: Governor Newsom Signs Historic Housing Legislation — SB 79 Culminates Eight-Year Fight to Legalize Homes Near Transit
October 11, 2025 at 12:33 AM
josh.hawn.xyz
What do you think of key finding 4 which makes it seem like high rates of gentrification is associated with higher rates of both development and residential vacancy?
Key Finding 4 The neighborhoods in the east side of San Francisco experience the most development and gentrification. The neighborhoods with the most development and gentrification are all on the east side of San Francisco. These are South of Market, the Financial District/South Beach, the Mission, Mission Bay, and the Tenderloin. These neighborhoods make up nearly 75% of all of the City's total development. • Nearly all of these neighborhoods also had the highest Rates of Change in the City, which is another indicator of gentrification. • There is a prevalence of vacancies in neighborhoods with the most development, likely because that housing is unaffordable to most residents.
October 9, 2025 at 9:46 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
The drip:
Pouring a bottle of 7 Up into a pyrex glass measuring cup
October 2, 2025 at 4:25 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
Packster 70 doesn’t have an external steering linkage. Instead it uses a hidden cable and pulley system like a vintage speed boat.
The steering pulley at the front wheel of the Riese & Müller Packster 70
September 30, 2025 at 11:36 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
Jesus Time (a screenshot from the film)
September 30, 2025 at 12:56 AM
josh.hawn.xyz
If I were the owner of these empty/underutilized parcel around here, I would probably pay AC Transit to run 2 more busses per hour.
Satellite view of the area around Alameda Point “Site A”. 4 blocks of new apartments and townhomes surrounded by empty lots and derelict warehouses.
September 16, 2025 at 5:50 AM
josh.hawn.xyz
About a quarter mile on West Atlantic Ave between Main Street and Orion Street. Bus frequency is currently only 30 minutes though sadly. We can bump that frequency up though.
Google Maps Satellite view of Part of Alameda Point W Atlantic Avenue near Main Street. “ONLY BUS” is painted in the far right lane.
September 16, 2025 at 5:45 AM
josh.hawn.xyz
This seems more like a reflection of the politics of the kind of people who would bet on something like this than it is a “wisdom of the crowd”-type thing.
Manifold Markets where you can bet on what the political lean of the Charlie Kirk shooter is. 7% right wing, 21% indiscernible, 72% left wing.
September 16, 2025 at 2:14 AM
josh.hawn.xyz
Not taking it seriously enough to even vote on it. LA Area dems: 8 Yes, 4 No, 11 Abstained
Map of assembly districts in Southern CA showing the votes on SB79
September 12, 2025 at 3:20 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
Map of assembly districts in CA showing the votes on SB79 Map of assembly districts in the Bay Area showing the votes on SB79 Map of assembly districts in Southern California showing the votes on SB79
September 12, 2025 at 3:17 PM
josh.hawn.xyz
I’ve got a policy solution for you.
Henry George with Red Laser Eyes
September 12, 2025 at 3:56 AM
josh.hawn.xyz
Pod Save America Host Jon Lovett making a face of surprised disbelief after hearing about how the top transit permitting reform bill in CA this year was killed by fossil fuel interests and private utilities and only got as far as it did due to the support of the building trades.
September 2, 2025 at 9:51 PM