Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
I'm a political scientist in @mccourtschool.bsky.social. I study trust in institutions and media effects on the public.
Web page: https://www.jonathanmladd.com/
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J6tt69QAAAAJ&hl
Apologies for typos.
Web page: https://www.jonathanmladd.com/
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J6tt69QAAAAJ&hl
Apologies for typos.
I'm not a hater and generally like Binyamin Appelbaum's writing. But please fact-check your assertions about public opinion. (This is todays lead op-ed in the Times.) Gallup says Democrats currently hold a 47-43 advantage on the economy and historically it has flipped back and forth.
November 14, 2025 at 3:25 PM
I'm not a hater and generally like Binyamin Appelbaum's writing. But please fact-check your assertions about public opinion. (This is todays lead op-ed in the Times.) Gallup says Democrats currently hold a 47-43 advantage on the economy and historically it has flipped back and forth.
Trump's approval rating drops below 40-percent in the FiftyPlusOne average. fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
November 13, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Trump's approval rating drops below 40-percent in the FiftyPlusOne average. fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
To review:
Email #1: Jeff Epstein says he "gave" a 20-year old girl to Trump
Email #2: Epstein says Trump "knew about the girls" he was recruiting at Mara Lago for his pedophile ring and Trump never reported it.
Email #3: Epstein says an underage victim "spent hours" at Epstein's house with Trump
Email #1: Jeff Epstein says he "gave" a 20-year old girl to Trump
Email #2: Epstein says Trump "knew about the girls" he was recruiting at Mara Lago for his pedophile ring and Trump never reported it.
Email #3: Epstein says an underage victim "spent hours" at Epstein's house with Trump
November 13, 2025 at 4:50 PM
To review:
Email #1: Jeff Epstein says he "gave" a 20-year old girl to Trump
Email #2: Epstein says Trump "knew about the girls" he was recruiting at Mara Lago for his pedophile ring and Trump never reported it.
Email #3: Epstein says an underage victim "spent hours" at Epstein's house with Trump
Email #1: Jeff Epstein says he "gave" a 20-year old girl to Trump
Email #2: Epstein says Trump "knew about the girls" he was recruiting at Mara Lago for his pedophile ring and Trump never reported it.
Email #3: Epstein says an underage victim "spent hours" at Epstein's house with Trump
This is real. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/09/u...
November 12, 2025 at 7:40 PM
This is real. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/09/u...
Elon Musk pretending to have read the Iliad (and learned important lessons from it!) when chatting with Marc Andreessen reminds me of how Nick Klegg said tech elites all “claim to read the same books.” www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
November 11, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Elon Musk pretending to have read the Iliad (and learned important lessons from it!) when chatting with Marc Andreessen reminds me of how Nick Klegg said tech elites all “claim to read the same books.” www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
You can also see it as a particular form of whataboutism:
"You think what this politician is doing is bad, but what about how the Democrats didn't already reform the system to block all bad behavior like this. Isn't it really their fault?"
"You think what this politician is doing is bad, but what about how the Democrats didn't already reform the system to block all bad behavior like this. Isn't it really their fault?"
November 6, 2025 at 4:57 PM
You can also see it as a particular form of whataboutism:
"You think what this politician is doing is bad, but what about how the Democrats didn't already reform the system to block all bad behavior like this. Isn't it really their fault?"
"You think what this politician is doing is bad, but what about how the Democrats didn't already reform the system to block all bad behavior like this. Isn't it really their fault?"
It looks like public polls had a small Republican bias in VA and a relatively large one in NJ this year.
November 5, 2025 at 3:11 AM
It looks like public polls had a small Republican bias in VA and a relatively large one in NJ this year.
More evidence of the decline in the magnitude all types of personal vote and candidate effects in a variety of different parts of the U.S. political system.
November 5, 2025 at 2:46 AM
More evidence of the decline in the magnitude all types of personal vote and candidate effects in a variety of different parts of the U.S. political system.
Dick Cheney published his APSR with Aage R. Clausen. As a grad student, Clausen worked on the American Voter (1960) and is credited with inventing the feeling thermometer. In terms of coauthorship, Cheney is two degrees of separation from Converse and Miller. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 4, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Dick Cheney published his APSR with Aage R. Clausen. As a grad student, Clausen worked on the American Voter (1960) and is credited with inventing the feeling thermometer. In terms of coauthorship, Cheney is two degrees of separation from Converse and Miller. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
As a herding test, we compare polls' distance from the prior 7-day polling average and to the subsequent 7-day average. Differences btw pre- and post-release deviation were statistically indistinguishable for all but one firm. The clustering does not seem to be from mirroring past polling averages.
October 29, 2025 at 9:05 PM
As a herding test, we compare polls' distance from the prior 7-day polling average and to the subsequent 7-day average. Differences btw pre- and post-release deviation were statistically indistinguishable for all but one firm. The clustering does not seem to be from mirroring past polling averages.
We struggled to find differences in accuracy (absolute or signed errors) across sampling and/or data-collection methods. Lots of theoretical reasons to expect this to matter. But at the end of the day, essentially no detectable differences in accuracy overall.
October 29, 2025 at 8:56 PM
We struggled to find differences in accuracy (absolute or signed errors) across sampling and/or data-collection methods. Lots of theoretical reasons to expect this to matter. But at the end of the day, essentially no detectable differences in accuracy overall.
Polls have a harder time making vote proportion estimates for racial minority groups than for white voters. See the higher variation in the figure. E.g., polls mostly agree that Hispanic voters reduced their support for the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024, but disagree widely on how much.
October 29, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Polls have a harder time making vote proportion estimates for racial minority groups than for white voters. See the higher variation in the figure. E.g., polls mostly agree that Hispanic voters reduced their support for the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024, but disagree widely on how much.
Here's the absolute error (the average magnitude by which polls were wrong in any direction) and the signed error (the average bias) in state and national presidential polls since 1940.
October 29, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Here's the absolute error (the average magnitude by which polls were wrong in any direction) and the signed error (the average bias) in state and national presidential polls since 1940.
Here's the absolute error and the signed error (bias) by level since 2006. As you can see, the last presidential election with an average pro-Republican bias was 2012. A string of 3 presidential elections with average bias in the same direction is rare.
October 29, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Here's the absolute error and the signed error (bias) by level since 2006. As you can see, the last presidential election with an average pro-Republican bias was 2012. A string of 3 presidential elections with average bias in the same direction is rare.
But that's just variance. Everyone wants to know about average bias. Here it is. Polls in the last two weeks of the campaign overstated Democratic margins by 2.7 points across all offices—smaller than the 4.6-point overestimate in 2020 and 3.1 points in 2016. But that's a Dem bias 3 cycles in a row.
October 29, 2025 at 8:24 PM
But that's just variance. Everyone wants to know about average bias. Here it is. Polls in the last two weeks of the campaign overstated Democratic margins by 2.7 points across all offices—smaller than the 4.6-point overestimate in 2020 and 3.1 points in 2016. But that's a Dem bias 3 cycles in a row.
Great tool from the American Survey Center. Converse (1964) in action. www.americansurveycenter.org/quiz/
October 28, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Great tool from the American Survey Center. Converse (1964) in action. www.americansurveycenter.org/quiz/
Back in 2012, in my first book, I argued that in a political system with parties well sorted by ideology and high-stakes elections, it may be impossible to have an establishment media that is widely trusted by the public. www.jonathanmladd.com/why-american...
October 27, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Back in 2012, in my first book, I argued that in a political system with parties well sorted by ideology and high-stakes elections, it may be impossible to have an establishment media that is widely trusted by the public. www.jonathanmladd.com/why-american...
Klein is repeating the story that elite consultants from the 2012 Obama campaign have been pushing. Trying to sell Dems more of the same. It's better to stick with the data. The CES shows that every Dem and Republican nominee is seen as essentially the same except Trump in 2016.
October 25, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Klein is repeating the story that elite consultants from the 2012 Obama campaign have been pushing. Trying to sell Dems more of the same. It's better to stick with the data. The CES shows that every Dem and Republican nominee is seen as essentially the same except Trump in 2016.
If I were building a skinny and extremely tall tower, I would maybe not use a weaker version of my building material, just so I could make it white.
October 24, 2025 at 12:23 AM
If I were building a skinny and extremely tall tower, I would maybe not use a weaker version of my building material, just so I could make it white.
It's so sad because this building would have worked if they had just used regular grey concrete. But the designers insisted on using weaker white concrete, and now the exterior is falling apart. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/n...
October 24, 2025 at 12:06 AM
It's so sad because this building would have worked if they had just used regular grey concrete. But the designers insisted on using weaker white concrete, and now the exterior is falling apart. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/n...
I can't recommend enough getting involved in local community groups and activism for important causes. Great for the world and for your well-being. This Sunday at 3:30pm, there is a public action in support for building more housing in Northern VA suburbs. voice-va.org/october-19-a...
October 17, 2025 at 5:55 PM
I can't recommend enough getting involved in local community groups and activism for important causes. Great for the world and for your well-being. This Sunday at 3:30pm, there is a public action in support for building more housing in Northern VA suburbs. voice-va.org/october-19-a...
Section 2 of the 15th Amendment explicitly delegates to Congress the right to decide how to enforce Black voting rights. That's what the text says. And that's the original intent of the framers.
October 15, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Section 2 of the 15th Amendment explicitly delegates to Congress the right to decide how to enforce Black voting rights. That's what the text says. And that's the original intent of the framers.
At the time, scholars of this topic noted that, in Trump's first term, the independence of institutional media orgs from him went with a surge in trust in the media from Democrats. Major media org's cooption and capitulation in Trump's second term has gone with a drop in Democrats' media trust.
October 4, 2025 at 6:41 PM
At the time, scholars of this topic noted that, in Trump's first term, the independence of institutional media orgs from him went with a surge in trust in the media from Democrats. Major media org's cooption and capitulation in Trump's second term has gone with a drop in Democrats' media trust.