Jon Mellon
@jonmellon.bsky.social
Co-director British Election Study. Political Scientist and Data Scientist. Political science methods/political behavior/causal inference. Posts do not represent employer.
I think there’s a case for teaching Bayesian stats as the default and all the frequentist procedures as helpful estimators for a special case of uniform priors
November 19, 2025 at 1:44 PM
I think there’s a case for teaching Bayesian stats as the default and all the frequentist procedures as helpful estimators for a special case of uniform priors
Does it behave well in the context of a few very large confounders?
November 15, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Does it behave well in the context of a few very large confounders?
I actually don’t know. I need to get more up to speed with double ML and how it relates to these problems. My gut reaction is that it wouldn’t solve it, but I trust simulations more than my gut
November 15, 2025 at 4:26 PM
I actually don’t know. I need to get more up to speed with double ML and how it relates to these problems. My gut reaction is that it wouldn’t solve it, but I trust simulations more than my gut
Reposted by Jon Mellon
I might just take you up on that. Will chat to Ben!
October 23, 2025 at 12:42 PM
I might just take you up on that. Will chat to Ben!
I would like to get back to this but that paper is currently in stasis
October 23, 2025 at 2:48 AM
I would like to get back to this but that paper is currently in stasis
When I was 17 I really enjoyed the Pig that Wants to Be Eaten. No idea how it holds up
October 13, 2025 at 9:46 PM
When I was 17 I really enjoyed the Pig that Wants to Be Eaten. No idea how it holds up
Reposted by Jon Mellon
Camus clearly never had to work out what was wrong with district level outcomes at the 2007 Burkina Faso legislative elections
October 13, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Camus clearly never had to work out what was wrong with district level outcomes at the 2007 Burkina Faso legislative elections
These are continuous not discrete variables and every commentary on this is assuming different cutpoints
September 28, 2025 at 2:08 PM
These are continuous not discrete variables and every commentary on this is assuming different cutpoints
I would say that a natural parsing of “is it acceptable to rob a store for food?” either implies that you cannot get food in another way or is answered with an easy no
September 26, 2025 at 9:44 PM
I would say that a natural parsing of “is it acceptable to rob a store for food?” either implies that you cannot get food in another way or is answered with an easy no
Right but the question is whether we’re faced with the choice between (theft or starvation) or the choice between (theft or starvation or buying food). The urgency of an issue only necessitates support for extreme measures if less extreme measures won’t work
September 26, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Right but the question is whether we’re faced with the choice between (theft or starvation) or the choice between (theft or starvation or buying food). The urgency of an issue only necessitates support for extreme measures if less extreme measures won’t work
I actually don’t know which particular existential discussion you’re referring to, so this is purely reacting to the abstract point
September 26, 2025 at 3:15 PM
I actually don’t know which particular existential discussion you’re referring to, so this is purely reacting to the abstract point
Not eating food is existential but there’s a lot of limits on acceptable ways to get food if an option on the table is going to the store and buying it.
September 26, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Not eating food is existential but there’s a lot of limits on acceptable ways to get food if an option on the table is going to the store and buying it.
Reposted by Jon Mellon
Rex W. Douglas PhD Applied Scientist (Remote/Austin)
Looking for full time and freelance projects.
Hoping for somewhere stable. I've never been more productive in my life, but mass layoffs and funding collapses have been endemic.
Looking for full time and freelance projects.
Hoping for somewhere stable. I've never been more productive in my life, but mass layoffs and funding collapses have been endemic.
September 24, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Rex W. Douglas PhD Applied Scientist (Remote/Austin)
Looking for full time and freelance projects.
Hoping for somewhere stable. I've never been more productive in my life, but mass layoffs and funding collapses have been endemic.
Looking for full time and freelance projects.
Hoping for somewhere stable. I've never been more productive in my life, but mass layoffs and funding collapses have been endemic.
Honestly the short ones seemed fine to me. The people I felt annoyed by were the ones making the giant tickbox grids (I have been one of those people before)
September 24, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Honestly the short ones seemed fine to me. The people I felt annoyed by were the ones making the giant tickbox grids (I have been one of those people before)
As a survey professional, I highly recommend that everyone takes all the surveys they’re shown
September 24, 2025 at 2:21 PM
As a survey professional, I highly recommend that everyone takes all the surveys they’re shown
Yes those are included. There were 5 longer surveys (that account for the bulk of the time) and lots of micro ones
September 24, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Yes those are included. There were 5 longer surveys (that account for the bulk of the time) and lots of micro ones