Jon Cardinelli
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Jon Cardinelli
@joncardinelli.bsky.social
Rugby writer
30/49 Boks scored tries across 14 Tests.

Outside backs contributed 38.6% of the tries last season. Figure dropped to 22.5% in 2025.

Halfback group accounted for nearly a third of the tries this season.

Overall, a relatively even spread that speaks to the all-court philosophy
December 1, 2025 at 9:26 AM
The overall numbers for 2025 are impressive, but don’t tell the whole story about the Boks’ progression.

In 2018:
Avg scoreline: 24-24
Avg tries: 2.6 scored, 2.7 conceded

In 2025:
Avg scoreline: 41-17
Avg tries: 5.8 tries scored, 2 conceded

PD of 24 is massive
December 1, 2025 at 9:25 AM
Took a closer look at how the Boks became Test rugby's most potent team:

– Scoring progression from 2018 to 2025
– The Tonyball shift
– The kick-chase double down

Not just the world's leading attacking side in 2025, but the most complete all-court team
🧵
December 1, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Unsurprising that Boks have gone with a 7-1 bench split, given who's left on tour – but interesting that Porthen is listed as loosehead cover.

Missing about 20 players due to various injuries, suspensions and Reg 9 recalls – but still a strong and balanced Bok side
November 27, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Boks' front-row depth looking good 2 years out from the RWC.

Still some old heads in the mix, but Rassie has blooded 8 front-rankers since 2024, while Steenekamp, Louw, TDT have had more game time.

Interesting to see how pecking order changes when the big guns return in 2026
November 24, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Deserved recognition for Marx – and he had some stiff competition from Du Toit and Nché, who've also had massive seasons.
November 22, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Porter offers a lot around the park, but if Boks execute kicking game and there are plenty of scrums, he could be in trouble.

First Test vs the Boks, Sam Prendergast will have to get stuck in.

Beirne an absolute monster, but will he have enough support late in the contest?
November 20, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Must have been a tough call at 14, but Moodie has been on fire in the air lately.

Esterhuizen retained on a 6-2 (alt 5-3) bench, as is the combo of Williams and Libbok.

Plenty of versatility across the board, will be fascinating to see what the finishing XV looks like
November 20, 2025 at 12:53 PM
The Boks have attacked the 2nd half – and Q4 in particular – in recent seasons.

Other nations like England, France, NZ are following suit.

Exactly how good is the Bomb Squad – and the Pom Squad?

The Q4 stats tell the story, especially when you focus on T1 Tests 🧵
November 19, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Been wondering about the Marco selection all week... Boks have started to use their starting hooker (MM) for 65-75 mins this season... so Grobbies can play a similar amount of time in Turin and then Marco moves to 2?

Looks like a 6-2, but still potential for a 4-4 bench split!
November 13, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Look at who might have 100+ caps by the 2027 RWC.

Rassie is bringing the youngsters through, but he's also giving the OGs room to add to their experience.

Reasonable to expect Etzebeth, Kolisi, DDA, PSDT, Kriel, Marx, Pollard to head to next RWC with 100+ caps.
November 7, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Interesting to hear recently how Pienaar, Smit and Teichmann all rated Kolisi as the greatest Bok captain.

Kolisi (67*) in on course to break Smit's record as Bok captain (83).

Already level with Teich re 72% win-record.
November 7, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Take all the big games the Boks have played in this golden era. Tally the marquee wins (RWC playoffs, Lions Tests, All Blacks Tests, Rugby Champs deciders, record-breakers, drought-enders etc).

Now, look at the most used players, and who's at the top, with 28/30 marquee wins🧐
November 7, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Siya Kolisi's story is important: where he comes from and what he's done off-the-field since winning the RWC.

But does he get enough credit as a player?

There's so much chat about GOAT teams and players... where does Siya rank?

I did some digging on the eve of his 100th Test…
November 7, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Lineout/maul royal rumble on the cards at the Stade de France this Saturday!

Libbok selection is a vote of confidence in both ML and SFM re goal-kicking and management...

Esterhuizen at 21 instead of 23.. Could be a very interesting 6-2 with 2 locks and a make-shift flanker
November 6, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Willemse injury forces Kolbe to drop back. Will be good to see how he goes at 15 (and maybe Sacha later in the game).

Thought Porthen might play off the bench, but he's being backed to fire from the start. Look at the experience around him!

Bench split: Is it a 5-3 or a 4-4?😉
October 28, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Nche back in the starting XV, and Williams should provide some impact from the bench.

Mbonambi back in the 23 for the first time since the Test against Aus in Joburg.
September 30, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Nice blend of youth and experience for the Test against Argentina in Durban – both in the starting XV and on the bench.

Hooker and Moodie rewarded for their outstanding performances in Wellington. Morné van den Berg gets his first run (from the bench) since the Italy series
September 23, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Players in the 26-29 and 25> age groups should get more opportunities over the next two years.

Rassie has also signaled his intentions by inviting three SA U20 players (Hlekani, Pead, Jooste) to train with the Boks.

E Louw and Hanekom also set to return from injury in '26
September 16, 2025 at 3:00 PM
So much was made about difference in selection between Auckland and Wellington, but the sheet below, with the age-group colour coding shows an interesting pattern.

Forward packs drawn from similarly old age groups.

Backline a lot younger in Welly, but bench is actually older.
September 16, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Look at the balance of past RWC squads.

2019 was the start of the journey, but in 2023 the balance between youth and experience was excellent.

In the 2027 projection, there are twice as many players aged 33 and older.

That balance needs to be addressed
September 16, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Consider what the 2027 RWC squad might look like.

I had a crack at predicting a 34-man squad – see how many older players would be front-runners?

This won't actually happen, though – Rassie wants a younger side at the next RWC.

So what needs to happen over the next two years?
September 16, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Rassie Erasmus named 80+ players in the wider Bok squad earlier this year.

Group those players by projected age in 2027 (33+, 30-32, 26-29, 25>) and you see how he's planning for the future – and how many older guys are still in the mix.

Still the case 8 games into 2025 season
September 16, 2025 at 2:55 PM
The NZ series was always going be a watershed in this RWC cycle.

So where do the Boks stand, in terms of developing the next generation and balancing the scales ahead of 2027?

I took a look at some ages, caps and projections to gain a better idea of how they're tracking 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Plenty of changes ahead of the do-or-die clash at the Cake Tin.

Wiese returns at 8 as expected, but Rassie has made some big calls in the backs, with brand new midfield and back-three combinations, as well a different half-back pairing.

Has kept the faith in the 5-3 split
September 8, 2025 at 6:54 AM