I would say this, but the IfG's budget live blog is already great, even before we get to the main event - where else do you get this kind of content?

I can’t believe that a journalist would write a story given to them directly by HMG, complete with estimated numbers and analysis, for which the specific purpose was to float a measure to see how it lands with key groups and the financial markets. Don’t journalists know *anything*??

Time will, he wrote portentously, indeed tell.

I mean….just…..

You’ve cursed us

John, I have some news

I don’t care what anyone says, however elegant and English he is, he ain’t a reliable Test opener

Well that already bodes well. Ffs

Funnily enough, “I will win! I will win! I will win!” serves both as the last line for Nessun Dorma and could be repurposed for that alternative opera, which I’d definitely watch

I ask this question approximately weekly

Yeah. And indeed, probably not tired their hands pre election. But given we are where we are, and given the capabilities of key personnel, you can see the logic of this move

I just think they wouldn’t have had the character or communication skills or politics, frankly, to have styled it out and made the case. And as such it would be pretty terminal for the Starmer - Reeves duopoly.

Right! And that’s the precise trade off. But much (not all) of the discourse has been of the “why on earth would you not raise income tax, it’s self evidently a good idea”

This is a self inflicted wound! Causing the U Turn also makes them look stupid! They’ll need to work harder to raise the money elsewhere! Income tax rises would have been horrendously bad for the government!

These things can (and probably are) all true at once!

Yes, political leadership is sometimes about taking on and winning an argument. But I’d barely seen anyone even make the case that a tax rise (especially in the context of manifesto brief) would have been horrendously unpopular - and those who did were castigated for Not Thinking Long Term

Wait, you’re saying sometimes a carrot works better than a stick?