Not suggesting job done or that it's ever going to be plain sailing. But the past decade shows that tech, ambition and governance can shift faster than anyone thought possible.

Progress, deeply uneven still, is now measurable and irrefutable. #NotPanglossian

Full report: eciu.net/analysis/rep...

Most consequentially:

Pre-Paris: world heading for ~4°C of heating by 2100.

Post-Paris: down to ~2.6°C because of strengthened policy, #cleantech S-curves and #AmbitionLoops. (That is, assuming current policies are delivered and sustained.)

@frediotto.bsky.social Credit: #WorldWeatherAttribution

Progress on reducing Amazon deforestation. Why? Because of renewed policy and enforcement.

Brazil lost more rainforest than any other country in 2024 —due to to #wildfires — but the last few years show that better policy makes a massive difference.

Now for #COP30 + #TropicalForestsForeverFacility

OK, not progress per se, but signs that climate risk really is becoming financially material, 10 years after Mark Carney's #TragedyOfTheHorizon speech.

We zoom in on the #CanariesInTheCoalMine in the US. #InsurancePremiums

@cathmckenna.bsky.social @marcdaalder.bsky.social

Clean energy #jobs (36.2m) now outnumber those in oil, gas and coal + ICE manufacturing (~33 million), and the gap is widening.

#Renewablesjobs have nearly doubled from 8.5m in 2015 to 16.2m 2023.

Updated @irena-official.bsky.social 2024 data dropping in December... 20m might be a stretch?

Climate policy has proliferated globally:

- #ClimateFrameworkLaws have tripled since 2015.

- Climate councils have also tripled. @climatecouncils.bsky.social

- National climate policy tools are up seven-fold

@oxfordnetzero.bsky.social
@climatepolicyradar.bsky.social
@granthamlse.bsky.social

83% of the 🌎 economy is still under #netzerotargets despite Trump's rollback of climate policy.

19 of the G20 are committed to #netzero by midcentury.

70% of the largest listed companies are still in, inc. most US firms. But yes, integrity's still crap.

@netzerotracker.bsky.social @ketanjoshi.co

Global #CO2emissions plateaued: since 2015, annual emissions (including land use) are up by about 2%, compared with >18% in the decade before Paris.

Since Paris, the annual CAGR increase in the growth rate of all #GHGemissions slowed to 0.32 %, a five-fold drop.

@drsimevans.carbonbrief.org

#ElectricVehicles hit 20% of new car sales globally in 2024, and is on track for 40% by 2030, over 10 years ahead of the IEA’s 2015 forecast.

@colin-walker.bsky.social gets troubled that PHEVs and BEVs are grouped together. Fair. But progress nonetheless. (I'll produce a solely BEV one next time.)

Investment in #cleanenergy now beats fossil fuels 2 to 1, with the gap wider in the Big Four: the US, EU, China and India.

Like in the UK, China's #CleanEnergyEconomy is outpacing the wider economy threefold, now worth 10% of GDP.

@eciu.net @davidrvetter.bsky.social

#Wind deployment kept pace. Added capacity in 2024: triple 2015 IEA forecasts.

Wind's costs have edged up on average recently but both onshore and offshore still deliver electricity below the #fossilfuels average.

Couldn't resist reproducing the @ourworldindata.org graph of solar LCOE dropping off a cliff — yes a 2009 baseline (not 2015) because it tells such a compelling story.

Since 2015, the #costcollapse was still a healthy 66%.

@hannahritchie.bsky.social @chrisstark.bsky.social

#TheSunHasWon — solar beat IEA forecasts 1500% to became the 'cheapest electricity in history' 6 years after The Economist said it was uneconomic.

In 2015, BP predicted the global non-fossil share of generation would rise from 32% to 38% by 2035.

By 2024? >40% of power supply. @ember-energy.org

Yergin should also acknowledge the #PrimaryEnergyFallacy. The Energy Institute uses the substitution method, but as @mliebreich.bsky.social notes:

'Better than nothing, but still inadequate... it maintains the primacy in people’s minds of increasing energy supply over efficiently meeting demand.'

Dan Yergin's writing walks a fine line between 'pragmatism' and 'fatalism', as @liamdenning.bsky.social has noted. He crosses it in this piece.

www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Daniel, for the record, the reasons why China (2060) and India (2070) should target dates after 2050 are well canvassed.