John Graves
@johngraves.bsky.social
Professor of Health Policy and Medicine, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
Professor of Management, Vanderbilt University Owen Graduate School of Management
Professor of Management, Vanderbilt University Owen Graduate School of Management
Negotiating it as a straight subsidy would reduce the uncertainty around having to precisely predict your income--or else face potentially significant financial consequences at tax time.
The CBO projected that dynamic could depress enrollment in the marketplaces.
The CBO projected that dynamic could depress enrollment in the marketplaces.
November 9, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Negotiating it as a straight subsidy would reduce the uncertainty around having to precisely predict your income--or else face potentially significant financial consequences at tax time.
The CBO projected that dynamic could depress enrollment in the marketplaces.
The CBO projected that dynamic could depress enrollment in the marketplaces.
This proposal would directly deposit the subsidy into HSAs -- and it's not clear how they'd be structured. Would it be a tax credit still subject to overpayment clawbacks? or a straight subsidy?
November 9, 2025 at 4:50 PM
This proposal would directly deposit the subsidy into HSAs -- and it's not clear how they'd be structured. Would it be a tax credit still subject to overpayment clawbacks? or a straight subsidy?
H.R.1. eliminates these safe harbors--meaning that if you receive an advance credit that is $2,000 too high, your tax liability goes up by the full $2,000 overpayment.
November 9, 2025 at 4:49 PM
H.R.1. eliminates these safe harbors--meaning that if you receive an advance credit that is $2,000 too high, your tax liability goes up by the full $2,000 overpayment.
The original ACA put in place these safe harbors in case someone's projected income (i.e., what they think their income will be next year) doesn't match their actual income.
For incomes under 200% of FPL, repayment caps were around $325 for an individual or $650 for a family.
For incomes under 200% of FPL, repayment caps were around $325 for an individual or $650 for a family.
November 9, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The original ACA put in place these safe harbors in case someone's projected income (i.e., what they think their income will be next year) doesn't match their actual income.
For incomes under 200% of FPL, repayment caps were around $325 for an individual or $650 for a family.
For incomes under 200% of FPL, repayment caps were around $325 for an individual or $650 for a family.
The supplemental materials have a ZIP-to-PESA (Pediatric Emergency Service Area) and ZIP-to-PERR (Pediatric Emergency Referral Region) crosswalk, for those who are interested in using the Atlas!
October 28, 2025 at 3:07 PM
The supplemental materials have a ZIP-to-PESA (Pediatric Emergency Service Area) and ZIP-to-PERR (Pediatric Emergency Referral Region) crosswalk, for those who are interested in using the Atlas!
ggplot + gganimate FTW.
and similar in 2015 -- but v different than 2010!
and similar in 2015 -- but v different than 2010!
October 20, 2025 at 2:53 PM
ggplot + gganimate FTW.
and similar in 2015 -- but v different than 2010!
and similar in 2015 -- but v different than 2010!
yay! congrats stacie!
October 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
yay! congrats stacie!
As one might imagine given these age dynamics and the state's demographics, Florida is the top state where folks are most dependent on this coverage over their lifetimes.
So sharp changes in the affordability of plans due to expiring enhanced tax credits is going to be acutely felt there.
So sharp changes in the affordability of plans due to expiring enhanced tax credits is going to be acutely felt there.
October 20, 2025 at 2:40 PM
As one might imagine given these age dynamics and the state's demographics, Florida is the top state where folks are most dependent on this coverage over their lifetimes.
So sharp changes in the affordability of plans due to expiring enhanced tax credits is going to be acutely felt there.
So sharp changes in the affordability of plans due to expiring enhanced tax credits is going to be acutely felt there.
At any given time, less than 10% of the non-Medicare-eligible population is covered with private plans in the marketplaces.
But there is a minor surge in so-called "non-group" coverage in early adulthood.
And then, as folks approach Medicare, non-group coverage really takes off.
But there is a minor surge in so-called "non-group" coverage in early adulthood.
And then, as folks approach Medicare, non-group coverage really takes off.
October 20, 2025 at 2:37 PM
At any given time, less than 10% of the non-Medicare-eligible population is covered with private plans in the marketplaces.
But there is a minor surge in so-called "non-group" coverage in early adulthood.
And then, as folks approach Medicare, non-group coverage really takes off.
But there is a minor surge in so-called "non-group" coverage in early adulthood.
And then, as folks approach Medicare, non-group coverage really takes off.
Reposted by John Graves
Overall, we estimate that longer hospital stays for Medicare Advantage patients are contributing to close to 2 million extra hospital bed days occupied by people who don't need to be there any more annually. This is a huge waste and bad for patient care.
Why is this happening?
Why is this happening?
September 8, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Overall, we estimate that longer hospital stays for Medicare Advantage patients are contributing to close to 2 million extra hospital bed days occupied by people who don't need to be there any more annually. This is a huge waste and bad for patient care.
Why is this happening?
Why is this happening?
alas it will have to live as “personal correspondence” for now …
July 29, 2025 at 6:03 PM
alas it will have to live as “personal correspondence” for now …
When TN had it's "mini unwinding" back in 2016 (due to difficulties implementing the MAGI conversion, resulting in delays implementing eligibility system) the demographic group that saw the most rapid disenrollments were those 19-21.
July 29, 2025 at 1:11 PM
When TN had it's "mini unwinding" back in 2016 (due to difficulties implementing the MAGI conversion, resulting in delays implementing eligibility system) the demographic group that saw the most rapid disenrollments were those 19-21.
in a way--the enhanced premiums were scheduled to expire and the OBBB codified a decision not to extend them past 2025
July 29, 2025 at 12:49 PM
in a way--the enhanced premiums were scheduled to expire and the OBBB codified a decision not to extend them past 2025
Reminds me of the classic Basu's Elephant paper I learned from Alan Zaslavsky in his survey design course.
We're doing a similar exercise you recommend for a new insurance simulation model: MLE w/ (unweighted) survey data, with later weighted aggregation & MCMC calibration for population ests
We're doing a similar exercise you recommend for a new insurance simulation model: MLE w/ (unweighted) survey data, with later weighted aggregation & MCMC calibration for population ests
July 29, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Reminds me of the classic Basu's Elephant paper I learned from Alan Zaslavsky in his survey design course.
We're doing a similar exercise you recommend for a new insurance simulation model: MLE w/ (unweighted) survey data, with later weighted aggregation & MCMC calibration for population ests
We're doing a similar exercise you recommend for a new insurance simulation model: MLE w/ (unweighted) survey data, with later weighted aggregation & MCMC calibration for population ests