2035 might seem like a long way off, but the institutional reforms, development of revenue mechanisms, and investment planning must begin now if we're to stay on track.

Governments need to be clear about what they want to do to keep up momentum to deliver $1.3 trillion.

The AGF experience shows what happens when governments fail to build a good process to take forward ideas to raise finance.

$1.3tn is a much bigger goal, so this time we can't let this process peter out.

The Roadmap is not perfect but it's a good basis to craft a balanced process to scale finance.

2035 might seem like a long way off, but the institutional reforms, development of revenue mechanisms, and investment planning must begin now if we're to stay on track.

Governments need to be clear about what they want to do to keep up momentum to deliver $1.3 trillion.

The AGF experience shows what happens when governments fail to build a good process to take forward ideas to raise finance.

$1.3tn is a much bigger goal, so this time we can't let this process peter out.

The Roadmap is not perfect but it's a good basis to craft a balanced process to scale finance.

At COP29, a new set of climate finance goals were agreed.

The CMA asked the COP29 and 30 Presidencies 🇦🇿&🇧🇷 to produce a Baku to Belem Roadmap to $1.3T to set out how this new goal can be met.

The Roadmap was released last week and the big question @cop30brazil.bsky.social is what will happen now?

The AGF's 2010 report put forward a swathe of ideas, including solidarity levies on shipping and aviation.

COP16 "took note" of the report and then...nothing. No systematic effort to follow up any of the recommendations.

Fast forward to 2020 and developed countries fell short of the $100bn goal.

Analysis by @joethwaites.bsky.social concludes this would mean a steep acceleration in the growth rate of adaptation finance

Developing countries ideally want this to be grant-based finance, so that would mean e.g. more development aid going to climate adaptation projects

bsky.app/profile/joet...

g) Finally, the option to quantify the #ParisAgreement Art 9.4 aim for "balance" as 50:50 adaptation:mitigation.

Assuming the current proportion of public finance in the $300bn as in the $100bn (80%, $240bn), this would mean $120bn in 2035.

Very similar to tripling 2025 levels by 2035!

Then there's other tripling formulations:

c) Tripling 2022 levels (i.e. latest data) by 2030: lower baseline year, lower goal
d) Tripling 2025 levels by 2035: allowing a decade rather than five years

e) & f) Including private mobilized finance leads to ~$10bn higher goals in the delivery year.

a) Tripling the 2025 doubling by 2030 requires a 25% annual growth rate in #adaptation finance, well above the 15% seen between 2019 and 2022.

b) Continuing the 15% historic growth rate gets $77bn in 2030, then $157bn by 2035 due to compounding effects.

Probably unlikely given political situations