joseph francis
@joefrancis.bsky.social
Economic historian, writing a book on Argentina and another on slavery in the United States. Confined to a hill in Wales. https://thepoorrichworld.substack.com
Given that it is MIT, I am assuming that the brain scan images look like this.
June 23, 2025 at 9:39 PM
Given that it is MIT, I am assuming that the brain scan images look like this.
In a second new paper, I then use the case of a recent paper in the Journal of Political Economy to show how the method that ADH use has such researcher degrees of freedom that it is wide open to abuse. github.com/joefrancis50... 13/20
June 3, 2025 at 8:18 AM
In a second new paper, I then use the case of a recent paper in the Journal of Political Economy to show how the method that ADH use has such researcher degrees of freedom that it is wide open to abuse. github.com/joefrancis50... 13/20
ADH then justify this choice by saying that it did not affect their identification strategy, but––worryingly––do not seem to be aware that it has implications for their causal inference strategy. 12/20
June 3, 2025 at 8:18 AM
ADH then justify this choice by saying that it did not affect their identification strategy, but––worryingly––do not seem to be aware that it has implications for their causal inference strategy. 12/20
Furthermore, I do not think the problems in ADH (2015) stop with data handling. This footnote is a major red flag, in my opinion. It suggests that they may have cherry-picked their donor pool to suit their hypothesis. 10/20
June 3, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Furthermore, I do not think the problems in ADH (2015) stop with data handling. This footnote is a major red flag, in my opinion. It suggests that they may have cherry-picked their donor pool to suit their hypothesis. 10/20
The p-value calculated from the permutation test goes up from 0.059 to 0.118.
I do not believe ADH’s results would have been published if they had used the correct variable of interest. As such, their article probably ought to be retracted (cc. @retractionwatch.com). 9/20
I do not believe ADH’s results would have been published if they had used the correct variable of interest. As such, their article probably ought to be retracted (cc. @retractionwatch.com). 9/20
June 3, 2025 at 8:18 AM
The p-value calculated from the permutation test goes up from 0.059 to 0.118.
I do not believe ADH’s results would have been published if they had used the correct variable of interest. As such, their article probably ought to be retracted (cc. @retractionwatch.com). 9/20
I do not believe ADH’s results would have been published if they had used the correct variable of interest. As such, their article probably ought to be retracted (cc. @retractionwatch.com). 9/20
I have also replicated ADH (2015) using real GDP per capita data from the World Bank and the German national accounts. Otherwise, the data are the same as in the original. And the results aren’t great. 8/20
June 3, 2025 at 8:18 AM
I have also replicated ADH (2015) using real GDP per capita data from the World Bank and the German national accounts. Otherwise, the data are the same as in the original. And the results aren’t great. 8/20
In the paper, I demonstrate this by comparing their data to the current OECD data, but really you can see it just by looking at their chart above.
It’s obvious that West Germany’s real GDP per capita could not have grown at 8% per year from 1860 to 1990. 7/20
It’s obvious that West Germany’s real GDP per capita could not have grown at 8% per year from 1860 to 1990. 7/20
June 3, 2025 at 8:18 AM
In the paper, I demonstrate this by comparing their data to the current OECD data, but really you can see it just by looking at their chart above.
It’s obvious that West Germany’s real GDP per capita could not have grown at 8% per year from 1860 to 1990. 7/20
It’s obvious that West Germany’s real GDP per capita could not have grown at 8% per year from 1860 to 1990. 7/20
ADH (2015) shows how dysfunctional the current system is.
As I detail in the first of two new papers, they made a simple data-handling error. Rather than use real GDP per capita, they accidentally used nominal GDP per capita: github.com/joefrancis50.... 6/20
As I detail in the first of two new papers, they made a simple data-handling error. Rather than use real GDP per capita, they accidentally used nominal GDP per capita: github.com/joefrancis50.... 6/20
June 3, 2025 at 8:18 AM
ADH (2015) shows how dysfunctional the current system is.
As I detail in the first of two new papers, they made a simple data-handling error. Rather than use real GDP per capita, they accidentally used nominal GDP per capita: github.com/joefrancis50.... 6/20
As I detail in the first of two new papers, they made a simple data-handling error. Rather than use real GDP per capita, they accidentally used nominal GDP per capita: github.com/joefrancis50.... 6/20
In other words, people have been reading and citing ADH (2015) for a decade without, it seems, anyone stopping to think “Oh wait, West Germany’s real GDP per capita probably didn’t grow by 8% per year from 1960 to 1990. That would be a miracle.” 3/20
June 3, 2025 at 8:18 AM
In other words, people have been reading and citing ADH (2015) for a decade without, it seems, anyone stopping to think “Oh wait, West Germany’s real GDP per capita probably didn’t grow by 8% per year from 1960 to 1990. That would be a miracle.” 3/20
To put this in perspective:
- ADH (2015) was written by Ivy League professors.
- It was published in the prestigious American Journal of Political Science.
- It has 1,504 citations on Web of Science and 3,415 on Google Scholar.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1... 2/20
- ADH (2015) was written by Ivy League professors.
- It was published in the prestigious American Journal of Political Science.
- It has 1,504 citations on Web of Science and 3,415 on Google Scholar.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1... 2/20
June 3, 2025 at 8:18 AM
To put this in perspective:
- ADH (2015) was written by Ivy League professors.
- It was published in the prestigious American Journal of Political Science.
- It has 1,504 citations on Web of Science and 3,415 on Google Scholar.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1... 2/20
- ADH (2015) was written by Ivy League professors.
- It was published in the prestigious American Journal of Political Science.
- It has 1,504 citations on Web of Science and 3,415 on Google Scholar.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1... 2/20
Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2015) is where the replication crisis comes to economics and political science.
Simply put, this chart is impossible. It implies that West Germany’s real GDP per capita grew by almost 8% per year from 1960 to 1990. But it clearly didn’t… 1/20
Simply put, this chart is impossible. It implies that West Germany’s real GDP per capita grew by almost 8% per year from 1960 to 1990. But it clearly didn’t… 1/20
June 3, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2015) is where the replication crisis comes to economics and political science.
Simply put, this chart is impossible. It implies that West Germany’s real GDP per capita grew by almost 8% per year from 1960 to 1990. But it clearly didn’t… 1/20
Simply put, this chart is impossible. It implies that West Germany’s real GDP per capita grew by almost 8% per year from 1960 to 1990. But it clearly didn’t… 1/20
p.s. In response to popular demand, here is the distribution of the white population in North and South by wealth brackets.
May 26, 2025 at 10:17 PM
p.s. In response to popular demand, here is the distribution of the white population in North and South by wealth brackets.
And for the quants, there is even a little spatial regression discontinuity design (RDD).
The paper has something for everyone, in other words. 11/12
The paper has something for everyone, in other words. 11/12
May 26, 2025 at 3:03 PM
And for the quants, there is even a little spatial regression discontinuity design (RDD).
The paper has something for everyone, in other words. 11/12
The paper has something for everyone, in other words. 11/12
I also revisit the work of Martin Robison Delany, an abolitionist who also argued that white Southerners had done well out of slavery. 10/12
May 26, 2025 at 3:03 PM
I also revisit the work of Martin Robison Delany, an abolitionist who also argued that white Southerners had done well out of slavery. 10/12
In the paper, I also venture into intellectual history to explain how the myth of white Southern poverty before the Civil War became so entrenched. I discuss figures such as Frederick Law Olmsted and Hinton Rowan Helper. 9/12
May 26, 2025 at 3:03 PM
In the paper, I also venture into intellectual history to explain how the myth of white Southern poverty before the Civil War became so entrenched. I discuss figures such as Frederick Law Olmsted and Hinton Rowan Helper. 9/12
My paper therefore fits well with Aaron Sheehan-Dean’s analysis of how Virginians were motivated to fight to defend their material interests.
I show that white Southerners were correct to believe that they had benefited from slavery. 6/12
I show that white Southerners were correct to believe that they had benefited from slavery. 6/12
May 26, 2025 at 3:03 PM
My paper therefore fits well with Aaron Sheehan-Dean’s analysis of how Virginians were motivated to fight to defend their material interests.
I show that white Southerners were correct to believe that they had benefited from slavery. 6/12
I show that white Southerners were correct to believe that they had benefited from slavery. 6/12
White Southerners were generally doing well out of a social order based on slavery.
And that is why they fought to defend it once Abraham Lincoln was elected at the end of 1860. 5/12
And that is why they fought to defend it once Abraham Lincoln was elected at the end of 1860. 5/12
May 26, 2025 at 3:03 PM
White Southerners were generally doing well out of a social order based on slavery.
And that is why they fought to defend it once Abraham Lincoln was elected at the end of 1860. 5/12
And that is why they fought to defend it once Abraham Lincoln was elected at the end of 1860. 5/12
The median white Southern household was also doing well, despite the region’s greater inequality.
Widespread poverty was largely confined to Appalachia, where slavery was less prevalent. 4/12
Widespread poverty was largely confined to Appalachia, where slavery was less prevalent. 4/12
May 26, 2025 at 3:03 PM
The median white Southern household was also doing well, despite the region’s greater inequality.
Widespread poverty was largely confined to Appalachia, where slavery was less prevalent. 4/12
Widespread poverty was largely confined to Appalachia, where slavery was less prevalent. 4/12
In this case study, I look at the wealth reported by white Americans to the census takers in 1860. On average, white Southerners were prosperous. They were far wealthier than their counterparts in the North. 3/12
May 26, 2025 at 3:03 PM
In this case study, I look at the wealth reported by white Americans to the census takers in 1860. On average, white Southerners were prosperous. They were far wealthier than their counterparts in the North. 3/12
“Why the South Fought” is my latest paper on American economic history.
In it, I argue that white Southerners defended slavery because they had benefited from it. The idea that a mass of “poor whites” had been impoverished by slavery is a myth. 1/12
In it, I argue that white Southerners defended slavery because they had benefited from it. The idea that a mass of “poor whites” had been impoverished by slavery is a myth. 1/12
May 26, 2025 at 3:03 PM
“Why the South Fought” is my latest paper on American economic history.
In it, I argue that white Southerners defended slavery because they had benefited from it. The idea that a mass of “poor whites” had been impoverished by slavery is a myth. 1/12
In it, I argue that white Southerners defended slavery because they had benefited from it. The idea that a mass of “poor whites” had been impoverished by slavery is a myth. 1/12
May 9, 2025 at 9:27 PM
And that is why my research can produce polarized reactions: some economists will dismiss it because I don’t conform to the consensus on liberal democratic institutions, while non-economists are likely to ask why I am bothering to point out the obvious. 19/20
April 28, 2025 at 11:57 AM
And that is why my research can produce polarized reactions: some economists will dismiss it because I don’t conform to the consensus on liberal democratic institutions, while non-economists are likely to ask why I am bothering to point out the obvious. 19/20
There is much more in the paper, which is available here: github.com/joefrancis50.... 17/20
April 28, 2025 at 11:57 AM
There is much more in the paper, which is available here: github.com/joefrancis50.... 17/20
I then analyze how abolition negatively affected the Southern cotton sector, leading to a slower trend growth rate and a loss of market share.
Racism nevertheless facilitated recovery by trapping so many of the formerly enslaved and their children in the cotton belt. 16/20
Racism nevertheless facilitated recovery by trapping so many of the formerly enslaved and their children in the cotton belt. 16/20
April 28, 2025 at 11:57 AM
I then analyze how abolition negatively affected the Southern cotton sector, leading to a slower trend growth rate and a loss of market share.
Racism nevertheless facilitated recovery by trapping so many of the formerly enslaved and their children in the cotton belt. 16/20
Racism nevertheless facilitated recovery by trapping so many of the formerly enslaved and their children in the cotton belt. 16/20
Third, as Alan L. Olmstead has inadvertently described, the plantation system also resulted in economies of scale in marketing and innovation, which led to technological change that raised productivity levels. www.jstor.org/stable/10.30... 15/20
April 28, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Third, as Alan L. Olmstead has inadvertently described, the plantation system also resulted in economies of scale in marketing and innovation, which led to technological change that raised productivity levels. www.jstor.org/stable/10.30... 15/20