KOIZUMI Shinjiro: young, popular
TAKAICHI Sanae: maintain conservative block
KOBAYASHI Takayuki - contender in last presidential election & has support
HAYASHI Yoshimasa & KATO Katsonobu: potential for working well with opposition
Unclear who delivers best on all 3 criteria

Key criteria for future LDP leader & PM:
1. Managing relations with Opposition parties
2. Keeping conservatives and Abe old guard within LDP and avoiding party split
3. Ability to deliver a win in the next Lower House election

Ishiba now claiming that he needs to stay on as PM to avoid a split within the LDP. From completing the trade deal with the US to maintaining party unity, the rationale for staying shifts at time when public support for the LDP has dropped to 19%. Ishiba: clever tactician or politically obstinate?

Ishiba now publicly pushing back against local news reports that he intends to resign. With local chapters of the LDP expressing discontent and rumours of pressure from senior figures in party to encourage/force his resignation hard to determine where the balance of truth lies.

Rice element of agreement will be very politically sensitive, given relationship to national identity issues & strength of farming lobby. Ishiba’s meeting today w/ former PMS, Aso, Suga & Kishida will shape timetable for resignation. Possible successors including Sanae Takaichi already positioning.

Expect opposition parties to welcome avoidance of 25% tariff but raise concerns about 15% level - still very high and notably different from Japan’s original negotiating position of holding out for zero tariffs.

How this plays locally & whether it can be sold as success or capitulation by LDP leadership will affect standing of gvt.

Trade announcement with US appears to allow for substantial US rice, agricultural and auto imports into Japan & requires Japanese $550 billion financing incentives for Japanese firms investing in US, but w 15% tariffs on Japanese exports to US and 50% on steel & aluminium exports to US.