The six-month spread from July 2025 to January 2026 has nearly halved to around $1.80 per barrel from $3.20 at the start of the week

The region exits winter with storage 4 percentage points below the ten-year average but much lower than at the end of winter 2023/24 (59%) and winter 2022/23 (56%). After two summers of relatively easy storage refills, the region will have to buy much more gas in the summer of 2025:

It is unclear what impact tariff and trade conflicts and the associated increase in economic uncertainty since then will have on the cyclical upswing over the rest of 2025

Milder weather has slowed the depletion of inventories as the end of the winter heating season approaches and removed some of the more extreme refill scenarios. The spread has narrowed to a backwardation of less than €1 per megawatt-hour from almost €2.50 on March 14 and more than €6 on January 30

Milder temperatures across North China reduced heating demand while expensive LNG was displaced by cheaper pipeline imports and contracted cargoes were resold to Europe

Since 2010, the number of passenger-kilometres travelled on the railways has increased by 80% and airline travel is up by 220% but highway travel by coach and bus has fallen by 66%. The result has accelerated a shift away from consumption of gasoline and diesel towards jet fuel and electricity

China is ramping up domestic coal output to cut reliance on imports and improve both energy security and national security. But a mild winter has left inventories above normal and depressed prices

Investment managers held a remaining long position equivalent to 127 TWh but it was the lowest for more than nine months since the end of May 2024

Total consumption was 40 million tonnes in the first two months of 2025 unchanged from the same period a year earlier. It is only the third time since 2010 consumption has failed to increase and the last was during the coronavirus pandemic:

Colder-than-average temperatures so far this winter across Northwest Europe have resulted in one of the fastest draw downs of stocks in records dating back to 2011, leaving the region facing a much more demanding restocking season this summer:

Storage typically falls to a minimum around the end of March with the date occurring from as early as March 16 to as late as April 19