Jim Paulsen
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Jim Paulsen
@jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
470 followers 95 following 95 posts
PhD economist by training. 40 years as a Chief Investment Strategist still following the economy & financial markets at http://paulsenperspectives.Substack.com
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Monday, I had the great pleasure of again joining
@practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly edition. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to listen in. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

youtu.be/4PV5YT3cqXU
It’s Not K-Shaped. It’s No Shaped | Jim Paulsen on What You're Getting Wrong About 2026
YouTube video by Excess Returns
youtu.be
January 7, 2026 at 1:07 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
See my latest report "New Years Nuggets" for a few economic & investments nuggets (hopefully a few prove golden) to ring in the New Year. Below is one example of an indicator suggesting "Animal Spirits" may take over in 2026. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:38 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
Please check out my latest missive which discusses five less followed cautionary signs for new era stocks during 2026 -- which go beyond excessive popularity and high valuations. One example is shown below. See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Happy New Year!
December 31, 2025 at 1:30 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
Please click the link below for my 2026 Economic & Financial Market Outlook. A few thought/guesses on how the New Year may unfold. Thanks!
paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/2026-econo...
2026 Economic & Financial Market Outlook
What will real growth, inflation, yields, and the stock market do in 2026? And it's not the K-shaped economy, it's the NO-shaped economy!
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 29, 2025 at 12:41 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
The Fed funds rate has been trailing real commodity prices by about two years since 2020. Should Fed policy remain "lagged & tardy", commodity prices suggest a 2.25%ish funds rate and a 3%ish 10-year yield by the end of 2026. See my latest free report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 24, 2025 at 1:03 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
The SP 500 PE ratio has been high throughout this bull market, but Main Street confidence remains pessimistic, and the stock market keeps climbing. Maybe a better valuation guide is the Emotion-Adjusted PE. For all the details, see my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 12:44 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
Investors often don't realize that changes in Main Street confidence are just as impactful as changes in EPS. I suspect 2026 will be primarily driven by a confidence revival even if EPS flatten. See my latest for all the details @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 18, 2025 at 4:09 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
Despite the federal debt to GDP ratio rising steadily during the last 40 years, the 10-year Tbond yield has persistently declined! Bond Vigilante sightings appear to be more folklore than fact! See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 15, 2025 at 12:58 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
Despite all the hand wringing over inflation, recession and tariffs, the US economy has mostly been in the sweet spot for equity investors in recent years -- not too hot nor too cold. Maybe investors should just chill until the economy leaves the "sweet spot"? PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com
December 11, 2025 at 1:02 PM
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During the govt. shutdown, economic data was delayed, but the relative performance of cyclical stocks continued to provide a daily read on overall economic momentum. The real-time performance of cyclicals continues to suggest US economic conditions remain punk. PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com
December 10, 2025 at 6:08 PM
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The Copper/Gold Price has been steadily declining since mid-2022 -- when CPI Inflation Peaked -- and continues to suggest the Fed Funds Rate is WAY too high. Dr. Copper is indicating the Fed may be cutting rates many more times as we enter 2026. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 2:21 PM
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Economic growth has slowed to unacceptable levels, says author Jim Paulsen cnb.cx/4iE39CF

I had the great pleasure joining @jonfortt on @CNBCOvertime
yesterday. Hope you enjoy the discussion. Thanks for having me, Jon!
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Economic growth has slowed to unacceptable levels, says author Jim Paulsen
Jim Paulsen, Paulsen Perspectives author, and Charles Bobrinskoy, Ariel Investments vice chairman, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action and the state of the U.S. economy.
cnb.cx
December 5, 2025 at 12:49 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
My latest missive "Stock Market Signaling Economic Weakness" notes several key equity metrics pointing to weaker real US growth than widely perceived which should force persistent Fed easing well into 2026. A couple examples are show below. See full report at:
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 4, 2025 at 1:48 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
Monday, I had the great pleasure of again joining
@practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for a fourth monthly edition. Thanks for taking a watch & listen. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

www.youtube.com/watch?v=a030...
The Fed Is Fighting the Wrong War | Jim Paulsen on Why 3% Inflation Isn't the Problem
YouTube video by Excess Returns
www.youtube.com
December 2, 2025 at 5:35 PM
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See my latest report on cyclical stocks outperforming, technology stocks' monetary policy invariance, jobless claims failure, stock-bond correlation & Fed easing, bond yields to head toward 3%, the power of cash & tech runs, and more @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 1, 2025 at 12:33 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
As economic policy stimulus (TPS) expands, expect stock market leadership to shift from innovative new era stocks to "policy-pushed" old era stocks. For all the details, see my latest piece at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:01 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
Earlier this week, I had the great privilege of joining the Wealth Consulting Group on their regular podcast. Jim, Talley and Paisley are pros and great to work with. We covered a lot of diverse issues. Thanks for having me!
PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

youtu.be/9XecRL_QNvc
The Bull of Wall Street #49 – 'Paulsen Perspectives' author Jim Paulsen (recorded 11/17/25)
YouTube video by The Wealth Consulting Group
youtu.be
November 21, 2025 at 3:01 PM
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Job numbers are punk, and the unemployment rate is up to 4.4%. Trends in public company employment are even worse. Policy officials need to make job creation "the" priority! Check out my work at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:43 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
US Inflation has been calm for the past 3 years. Real GDP growth & jobs have been subpar for 20 years and both are currently punk. Why do policy officials continue to emphasize fighting inflation rather than promoting/supporting real growth? See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 1:11 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
The Main Street Meter has a strong inverse relationship with future stock market returns. It has declined substantially suggesting the stock market is "younger" and more attractive than 22% of time since 1955! See my latest report for all the details at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 12:36 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
I had the pleasure of joining Morgan Brennan & Jon Fortt on CNBC Overtime Friday. We had a lively discussion about the stock market, broader market plays, and the tech bubble. Thanks to both Morgan & Jon for having me. Have a listen!
PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com
www.youtube.com/watch?v=av4_...
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November 10, 2025 at 12:44 PM
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The Stock Market is entering its historically strongest part of the year (November through April) after performance during its weakest part (May thru Oct) was STRONG. Both seasonal results point to additional solid stock market returns. See my full report for free @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
October 30, 2025 at 11:59 AM
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Participation in this bull market has been extremely narrow. However, for the 1st time in about 2 years, RTY's EPS is outpacing S&P EPS. Maybe more accommodative economic policies are starting to awaken broader parts of the stock market? paulsenperspectives.subtack.com
October 28, 2025 at 7:28 PM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
Despite the 2020-2022 inflationary surge being one of the largest in post-war history, among the economy’s major performance benchmarks - real GDP, employment, real profits, & real wages -- there was little damaging impact. Why? See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 11:35 AM
jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
What has happened to US economic momentum since the government quit releasing econ reports on Oct. 1st? A good proxy for US economic surprises may be the relative performance of S&P cyclical sectors. Cyclicals have continued underperforming badly since Oct 1!
See paulsenperspectives.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 5:34 PM