jim
@jimoof.bsky.social
let's think about this market
January 17, 2026 at 11:20 PM
let's think about this market
the idea of random employees writing reports, doing analysis will soon be of the past
December 9, 2025 at 5:03 PM
the idea of random employees writing reports, doing analysis will soon be of the past
figuring out the most useful markets
- something useful to know
- that market participants can predict well
- and we cannot predict better ourselves
an example is "which lab will lead at a certain tech"
or generally things which are (a) important but which (b) we don't have the time to monitor
- something useful to know
- that market participants can predict well
- and we cannot predict better ourselves
an example is "which lab will lead at a certain tech"
or generally things which are (a) important but which (b) we don't have the time to monitor
September 28, 2025 at 4:10 PM
figuring out the most useful markets
- something useful to know
- that market participants can predict well
- and we cannot predict better ourselves
an example is "which lab will lead at a certain tech"
or generally things which are (a) important but which (b) we don't have the time to monitor
- something useful to know
- that market participants can predict well
- and we cannot predict better ourselves
an example is "which lab will lead at a certain tech"
or generally things which are (a) important but which (b) we don't have the time to monitor
AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?
23% chance. RSG = Random Seed Glitchless
Must be Java version
CAN:
Can use scaffolds or similar.
CAN'T:
Cannot slow down game time or stuff like that.
Can't get human help.
Can't reverse engine...
manifold.markets
September 27, 2025 at 11:24 PM
