Jesse Felder
@jessefelder.bsky.social
Founder and editor of The Felder Report and host of the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
Pinned
A Frankenstein Of Financial Bubbles
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
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NEW POST: A Frankenstein Of Financial Bubbles thefelderreport.com/2025/11/15/a...
‘Jefferies analysts noted last week that Chinese hyperscalers’ combined capital expenditures between 2023 and 2025 were 82% lower than US peers. But the performance gap between their two best models, based on various analysis, is now razor-thin.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Are DeepSeek Moments Now the New Normal?
A little-known Chinese AI company recently released an open-source reasoning model that challenged Western dominance and was developed at a fraction of the cost. And no, it’s not DeepSeek.
www.bloomberg.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:30 PM
‘Jefferies analysts noted last week that Chinese hyperscalers’ combined capital expenditures between 2023 and 2025 were 82% lower than US peers. But the performance gap between their two best models, based on various analysis, is now razor-thin.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
‘Similar to the bull steepening in August 2007, when the market sensed a policy mistake by omission, this time the market is hinting at a policy mistake by commission and a concern about inflation.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
November 18, 2025 at 8:22 PM
‘Similar to the bull steepening in August 2007, when the market sensed a policy mistake by omission, this time the market is hinting at a policy mistake by commission and a concern about inflation.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
‘Recent oil and gas deals in Europe suggest that the growing demand for energy may be leading companies to adopt a more pragmatic approach.‘ www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/b...
Energy Companies Turn to Fossil Fuels, 10 Years After Climate Pact
www.nytimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:09 PM
‘Recent oil and gas deals in Europe suggest that the growing demand for energy may be leading companies to adopt a more pragmatic approach.‘ www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/b...
‘Reverse stock splits globally have climbed to a record this year, underscoring the strain on small-cap companies struggling to stay listed even as an AI-fueled rally lifts technology heavyweights to fresh highs.’ www.reuters.com/business/rec...
November 18, 2025 at 8:04 PM
‘Reverse stock splits globally have climbed to a record this year, underscoring the strain on small-cap companies struggling to stay listed even as an AI-fueled rally lifts technology heavyweights to fresh highs.’ www.reuters.com/business/rec...
RAGHURAM RAJAN: 'If abundant liquidity raises the policy rates needed to contain inflation something has to give. Apart from being more cautious about lowering policy rates, the Fed must dial down expectations that it will unconditionally and indefinitely support markets.’
www.ft.com/content/471d...
www.ft.com/content/471d...
The Fed’s delicate balancing act over liquidity
Optimism and greed complicate the central bank’s decisions during market disruptions
www.ft.com
November 18, 2025 at 7:52 PM
RAGHURAM RAJAN: 'If abundant liquidity raises the policy rates needed to contain inflation something has to give. Apart from being more cautious about lowering policy rates, the Fed must dial down expectations that it will unconditionally and indefinitely support markets.’
www.ft.com/content/471d...
www.ft.com/content/471d...
'This is a system designed to increase the profitability of posting ads deemed highly likely to be fraudulent. Worst of all, Meta’s algorithms ensure that people who click on scams are likely to see more of them.’
www.ft.com/content/4560...
www.ft.com/content/4560...
We have to be able to hold tech platforms accountable for fraud
Algorithms ensure that people who click on scams are likely to see more of them
www.ft.com
November 18, 2025 at 7:44 PM
'This is a system designed to increase the profitability of posting ads deemed highly likely to be fraudulent. Worst of all, Meta’s algorithms ensure that people who click on scams are likely to see more of them.’
www.ft.com/content/4560...
www.ft.com/content/4560...
‘Only 114,000 Americans in their 20s completed vocational programs during the first 10 months of last year, compared to 1.24M who graduated from 4-year colleges. Yet recent bachelor’s recipients in their 20s were 5.6 percentage points less likely to be employed.’ www.wsj.com/opinion/ford...
Opinion | Why Ford Can’t Find Mechanics
Forget about reshoring manufacturing without more skilled workers.
www.wsj.com
November 18, 2025 at 7:38 PM
‘Only 114,000 Americans in their 20s completed vocational programs during the first 10 months of last year, compared to 1.24M who graduated from 4-year colleges. Yet recent bachelor’s recipients in their 20s were 5.6 percentage points less likely to be employed.’ www.wsj.com/opinion/ford...
“This wave of supply is an order of magnitude larger than what we’ve seen over the prior years. The market is starting to question who will be the winners, who will be losers, and what will be the return on that investment.“ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
AI Bubble and Growth Fears Are Creeping Into US Credit Markets
The malaise sweeping financial markets globally is creeping into credit markets.
www.bloomberg.com
November 18, 2025 at 7:22 PM
“This wave of supply is an order of magnitude larger than what we’ve seen over the prior years. The market is starting to question who will be the winners, who will be losers, and what will be the return on that investment.“ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘The company said in its presentation that it is a “low risk platform business” that offers accurate data to create a “reduced chance of fraud.” Of the $132M in revenue that Raistone expected for next year, $101M was projected to come from First Brands.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
First Brands Demise Forces Lending Firm Raistone to Seek Rescue
The trade finance platform Raistone is looking to sell itself after the collapse of its biggest client, auto-parts supplier First Brands Group.
www.bloomberg.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:16 PM
‘The company said in its presentation that it is a “low risk platform business” that offers accurate data to create a “reduced chance of fraud.” Of the $132M in revenue that Raistone expected for next year, $101M was projected to come from First Brands.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘Whether it’s extrapolating unsustainable earnings growth, trusting the Fed will always come to the rescue, or refusing to mark asset prices to market, investors in late-cycle booms have a tendency to believe the unbelievable.’ www.palmvalleycapital.com/post/lie-to-me
Lie to Me
<November 18, 2025>In the 1990’s, one of the most admired and widely held stocks in America was General Electric (GE). It was the blue chip of blue chips—a pillar of corporate excellence. By 1998, GE ...
www.palmvalleycapital.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:08 PM
‘Whether it’s extrapolating unsustainable earnings growth, trusting the Fed will always come to the rescue, or refusing to mark asset prices to market, investors in late-cycle booms have a tendency to believe the unbelievable.’ www.palmvalleycapital.com/post/lie-to-me
‘Many high-SBC companies use excess cash flow to buy back their own shares. If the company does this to conceal dilution, then the so-called free cash flows were not truly “free to shareholders.”’ petergarnry.substack.com/p/free-cash-... by @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com
Free cash flow mirage
How share-based compensation masks the true profitability
petergarnry.substack.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:04 PM
‘Many high-SBC companies use excess cash flow to buy back their own shares. If the company does this to conceal dilution, then the so-called free cash flows were not truly “free to shareholders.”’ petergarnry.substack.com/p/free-cash-... by @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com
Reposted by Jesse Felder
Plus minority investment means don't consolidate, so losses don't appear in the NVDA accounts while the revenue and profit does appear. If Anthropic stock dives maybe one day have to write down, but for now great way to turn balance sheet into P&L without any need for AI itself to be profitable
November 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Plus minority investment means don't consolidate, so losses don't appear in the NVDA accounts while the revenue and profit does appear. If Anthropic stock dives maybe one day have to write down, but for now great way to turn balance sheet into P&L without any need for AI itself to be profitable
Reposted by Jesse Felder
This is the platonic ideal of a circular AI deal:
Microsoft, Nvidia investing up to $15 billion in Anthropic; Anthropic to buy $30 billion in Azure computing capacity and up to 1 GW in computing capacity served through Nvidia’s GPUs sherwood.news/markets/micr...
Microsoft, Nvidia investing up to $15 billion in Anthropic; Anthropic to buy $30 billion in Azure computing capacity and up to 1 GW in computing capacity served through Nvidia’s GPUs sherwood.news/markets/micr...
Microsoft, Nvidia investing in Anthropic; Anthropic to buy $30 billion in Azure computing capacity
The Platonic ideal of a circular AI deal....
sherwood.news
November 18, 2025 at 3:31 PM
This is the platonic ideal of a circular AI deal:
Microsoft, Nvidia investing up to $15 billion in Anthropic; Anthropic to buy $30 billion in Azure computing capacity and up to 1 GW in computing capacity served through Nvidia’s GPUs sherwood.news/markets/micr...
Microsoft, Nvidia investing up to $15 billion in Anthropic; Anthropic to buy $30 billion in Azure computing capacity and up to 1 GW in computing capacity served through Nvidia’s GPUs sherwood.news/markets/micr...
‘Artificial intelligence might be the most transformative technology in generations. It is also the most joyless. While Wall Street greets AI with open arms, ordinary Americans respond with ambivalence, anxiety, even dread.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
November 18, 2025 at 3:35 PM
‘Artificial intelligence might be the most transformative technology in generations. It is also the most joyless. While Wall Street greets AI with open arms, ordinary Americans respond with ambivalence, anxiety, even dread.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
‘Oracle has, in effect, become OpenAI’s US public market proxy.’ www.ft.com/content/064b...
November 18, 2025 at 3:31 PM
‘Oracle has, in effect, become OpenAI’s US public market proxy.’ www.ft.com/content/064b...
US CEOs Are Leaving At Record Rates thedailyshot.com/2025/11/18/e... via @thedailyshot.bsky.social
November 18, 2025 at 3:22 PM
US CEOs Are Leaving At Record Rates thedailyshot.com/2025/11/18/e... via @thedailyshot.bsky.social
‘Japan’s longer-maturity sovereign bonds tumbled further Tuesday as investor worries deepened that a big economic package from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would damage the nation’s public finances.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 18, 2025 at 3:19 PM
‘Japan’s longer-maturity sovereign bonds tumbled further Tuesday as investor worries deepened that a big economic package from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would damage the nation’s public finances.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“Momentum Seasonality: Nov-Dec and Dec-Jan tend to be weakest periods for Momentum with some fairly large drawdowns in recent years between Nov and Feb.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/799 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
November 18, 2025 at 3:16 PM
“Momentum Seasonality: Nov-Dec and Dec-Jan tend to be weakest periods for Momentum with some fairly large drawdowns in recent years between Nov and Feb.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/799 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
‘Notices of impending mass layoffs by US companies surged in October to among the highest levels on record. Some 39,006 Americans were given advance notice last month; that number has only ever been higher in 2008, 2009, 2020 and May 2025.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 18, 2025 at 3:10 PM
‘Notices of impending mass layoffs by US companies surged in October to among the highest levels on record. Some 39,006 Americans were given advance notice last month; that number has only ever been higher in 2008, 2009, 2020 and May 2025.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
Bof FMS: For the first time since August 2005, most investors say companies are overinvesting
November 18, 2025 at 10:27 AM
Bof FMS: For the first time since August 2005, most investors say companies are overinvesting
Reposted by Jesse Felder
BBC: Pichai said while AI investment had been an “‘extraordinary moment’, there was some ‘irrationality’ ..
“Asked whether Google would be immune to the impact of the AI bubble bursting, Mr Pichai said .. ‘I think no company is going to be immune, including us.’”
$GOOGL
www.bbc.com/news/article...
“Asked whether Google would be immune to the impact of the AI bubble bursting, Mr Pichai said .. ‘I think no company is going to be immune, including us.’”
$GOOGL
www.bbc.com/news/article...
November 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
BBC: Pichai said while AI investment had been an “‘extraordinary moment’, there was some ‘irrationality’ ..
“Asked whether Google would be immune to the impact of the AI bubble bursting, Mr Pichai said .. ‘I think no company is going to be immune, including us.’”
$GOOGL
www.bbc.com/news/article...
“Asked whether Google would be immune to the impact of the AI bubble bursting, Mr Pichai said .. ‘I think no company is going to be immune, including us.’”
$GOOGL
www.bbc.com/news/article...
‘Following a year of AI enthusiasm effectively driving mega-cap valuations, Bridgewater stepped back from the euphoria in Q3, locking in gains before the trade gets even messier.’ www.thestreet.com/investing/ra...
November 17, 2025 at 7:21 PM
‘Following a year of AI enthusiasm effectively driving mega-cap valuations, Bridgewater stepped back from the euphoria in Q3, locking in gains before the trade gets even messier.’ www.thestreet.com/investing/ra...
‘The energy sector is least correlated to the Mag7 in terms of returns. So if the Mag7 does go down the energy sector is likely to be one of the safer places to be. Indeed, in the 2022 bear market energy stocks rose handsomely at a time when the Mag7 fell sharply.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
One Way to Hedge Against the AI Bubble Bursting
As usual, it’s worth looking into what’s cheap and detested.
www.bloomberg.com
November 17, 2025 at 7:13 PM
‘The energy sector is least correlated to the Mag7 in terms of returns. So if the Mag7 does go down the energy sector is likely to be one of the safer places to be. Indeed, in the 2022 bear market energy stocks rose handsomely at a time when the Mag7 fell sharply.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
‘CoreWeave is saddled with massive debt and has no obvious path toward profitability. There are some eyebrow-raising accounting choices. And then, naturally, there are the huge insider sales of CoreWeave stock.’ www.theverge.com/ai-artificia...
Meet CoreWeave, the AI industry’s ticking time bomb
The debt-laden AI compute company has been boosted by Nvidia.
www.theverge.com
November 17, 2025 at 7:06 PM
‘CoreWeave is saddled with massive debt and has no obvious path toward profitability. There are some eyebrow-raising accounting choices. And then, naturally, there are the huge insider sales of CoreWeave stock.’ www.theverge.com/ai-artificia...
‘Like many folk who are busy having a midlife crisis, Windows is adopting a cringe-worthy veneer—specifically AI—in a desperate move to hide the fact the body is slowly degrading underneath.‘ gizmodo.com/windows-40-y...
As Windows Turns 40, It's ‘Evolving’ Into a Bloated AI Slop Machine
Windows Copilot can't even tell users how to correctly resize their text.
gizmodo.com
November 17, 2025 at 7:03 PM
‘Like many folk who are busy having a midlife crisis, Windows is adopting a cringe-worthy veneer—specifically AI—in a desperate move to hide the fact the body is slowly degrading underneath.‘ gizmodo.com/windows-40-y...