The 538 model actually lives on 🙂
I’ve been rebuilding it from scratch — same spirit, updated methods, live forecasts for all major leagues: xStandings.com

Check the details on how the model works at xstandings.com/how-it-works

Current Champions League probabilities to go directly to the Round of 16 (xStandings model):

Arsenal — 97%
Bayern Munich — 88%
Inter Milan — 84%
Real Madrid — 79%
PSG - 75%

Check them all at 👉 xStandings.com

Using Massey’s Method, I calculate each league’s relative power — expressed in goals.
Here are the top 5 🇪🇺 leagues right now:

England + 2.14
Italy + 1.80
Germany + 1.78
Spain + 1.71
France + 1.45

To answer that, I estimate league strengths using results from UEFA competitions over the past 3 seasons.
If teams from one country perform better than expected, that league’s rating goes up (and vice versa).

Most of the time, matches stay within one league.
But when Real Madrid face Bayern Munich or Liverpool play Milan, we need to know:
➡️ How strong is each league compared to the others?

⚽️ Context matters.
Early-season points mean different things depending on who you’ve faced.

Explore live simulations & predictions for upcoming matches → xstandings.com

#PremierLeague #xStandings #FootballData #SportsAnalytics

Takeaways:
🔹 Liverpool and West Ham faced brutal opening runs.
🔹 Sunderland and Aston Villa benefited from lighter schedules.
🔹Liverpool sit 2nd and Tottenham 3rd — but their paths couldn't have been more different.

6) Roma’s incredible second half of the season reshaped expectations for 2025–26.
Thanks to that turnaround (and 2 wins to start the new season), xStandings now gives Roma a 45.6% chance of qualifying for the UCL. 🐺
Explore Roma’s journey (and your team’s) here 👇
👉 xstandings.com

#sportsanalytics

5) Roma’s goal was clear: Champions League qualification.
But for most of the season, it looked out of reach.
A late winning streak in the season (Verona, Inter, Fiorentina) gave some hope to the fans
🔮 Our model predicted a 43% UCL chance if they beat Atalanta…
❌ They lost 2-1. Dream over.

4) Then came Claudio Ranieri.
Coming out of retirement, he led a miraculous second round of the season.
🟢 From 48.2 expected pts at his arrival…
🟢 To 69 expected pts by season end
🟢 Net overperformance: +20.8 pts (!)
Roma surged up the table under Ranieri.

3) Ivan Juric was appointed next.
A quick spark: wins vs Udinese (3-0) and Venezia (2-1) gave fans hope.
But it didn’t last. The team collapsed again.
❌ Sacked on November 10.
📉 Model shows a net underperformance of –3.3 pts during his tenure.

2) De Rossi signed a 3-year deal in the summer of 2024.
But after just 4 matches (1 loss, 3 draws), he was sacked.
📉 Pre-season model: 57.1 pts expected
📉 At his dismissal: 52.2 pts expected
🔻 Underperformance: –4.9 pts
Was it the right decision?

1) AS Roma’s season was pure chaos:
3 managers in <3 months

A stunning second half of the season

In fact, only Barcelona had a better 2025 across Europe’s top 5 leagues (I heard this fact but not 100% sure)
Here's what xStandings saw 👇
📈 Expected Points Evolution
🧠 Manager performance

Let's see the model in action 🔍
A thread on AS Roma’s rollercoaster 24/25 season ⬇️