Jacob
@jcb.bsky.social
number crunching
formerly msc @ lse stats, surveys @ us census
formerly msc @ lse stats, surveys @ us census
But that doesn’t justify using unweighted responses!
These are the unweighted proportions for years to graduation from the FIRE dataset: would Kaufmann infer that the true proportion of college students who are about to graduate surged by 74% and then collapsed by 30% since 2020?
These are the unweighted proportions for years to graduation from the FIRE dataset: would Kaufmann infer that the true proportion of college students who are about to graduate surged by 74% and then collapsed by 30% since 2020?
October 16, 2025 at 10:16 PM
But that doesn’t justify using unweighted responses!
These are the unweighted proportions for years to graduation from the FIRE dataset: would Kaufmann infer that the true proportion of college students who are about to graduate surged by 74% and then collapsed by 30% since 2020?
These are the unweighted proportions for years to graduation from the FIRE dataset: would Kaufmann infer that the true proportion of college students who are about to graduate surged by 74% and then collapsed by 30% since 2020?
In response to this follow up from Kaufmann, I updated my post today to clarify that I don’t think the weighted or unweighted estimates are a good answer to this question
October 16, 2025 at 10:14 PM
In response to this follow up from Kaufmann, I updated my post today to clarify that I don’t think the weighted or unweighted estimates are a good answer to this question
hey thanks (1) for saying so, I appreciate it (2) in a roundabout way, for your help--I haven't used my personal site for much but I remember referencing at least one post of yours when I first put it up
October 16, 2025 at 2:00 PM
hey thanks (1) for saying so, I appreciate it (2) in a roundabout way, for your help--I haven't used my personal site for much but I remember referencing at least one post of yours when I first put it up
There are a number of issues with this analysis but I found one that I haven't seen anyone else mention: Kaufmann estimates gender ID from the FIRE data without using the survey weights
When the weights are used as designed, the evidence for his core claim disappears
When the weights are used as designed, the evidence for his core claim disappears
October 15, 2025 at 5:12 AM
There are a number of issues with this analysis but I found one that I haven't seen anyone else mention: Kaufmann estimates gender ID from the FIRE data without using the survey weights
When the weights are used as designed, the evidence for his core claim disappears
When the weights are used as designed, the evidence for his core claim disappears
You can’t fathom the difference between 0.002 and 1. This chart is to scale.
November 27, 2024 at 11:39 PM
You can’t fathom the difference between 0.002 and 1. This chart is to scale.
It’s so dark to see people grind all of this into content of the same flavor as everything else. “Laughing til my head comes off, who’s in a bunker,” etc
October 12, 2023 at 1:22 AM
It’s so dark to see people grind all of this into content of the same flavor as everything else. “Laughing til my head comes off, who’s in a bunker,” etc
Introspection hall of fame
May 9, 2023 at 10:44 AM
Introspection hall of fame
I Love Trains and Listening to Music
May 9, 2023 at 7:57 AM
I Love Trains and Listening to Music
the five minutes I spent muting the most annoying power users on here continue to pay dividends
May 7, 2023 at 12:51 PM
the five minutes I spent muting the most annoying power users on here continue to pay dividends
allegedly had his wife and son treated by mkultra doctors to debilitating effect. honestly too depressing to keep reading so this will be the last one haha.
what an evil man!
what an evil man!
May 7, 2023 at 12:22 PM
allegedly had his wife and son treated by mkultra doctors to debilitating effect. honestly too depressing to keep reading so this will be the last one haha.
what an evil man!
what an evil man!
tons of less impactful but equally bleak anecdotes like this. he apparently tried to have charles de gaulle assassinated. and on and on
May 7, 2023 at 12:16 PM
tons of less impactful but equally bleak anecdotes like this. he apparently tried to have charles de gaulle assassinated. and on and on
played central role in coups in iran and guatemala, bay of pigs, and mkultra!
May 7, 2023 at 12:08 PM
played central role in coups in iran and guatemala, bay of pigs, and mkultra!
insane diss track here elaborating on that last point
May 7, 2023 at 11:59 AM
insane diss track here elaborating on that last point
one of the strongest claims for individual contributions to the start of the cold war
May 7, 2023 at 11:59 AM
one of the strongest claims for individual contributions to the start of the cold war
the “not quite as bad” quote could be the canonical example for playing devil’s advocate
May 7, 2023 at 11:51 AM
the “not quite as bad” quote could be the canonical example for playing devil’s advocate
this has been a live bleating of the wikipedia page for the V-2 rocket. god bless wikipedia
May 7, 2023 at 11:43 AM
this has been a live bleating of the wikipedia page for the V-2 rocket. god bless wikipedia
as with p much all technology i’m so interested in what it would have been like to perceive this for the first time
May 7, 2023 at 11:40 AM
as with p much all technology i’m so interested in what it would have been like to perceive this for the first time
wild how much middle school-grade trickery was still useful at that point
May 7, 2023 at 11:30 AM
wild how much middle school-grade trickery was still useful at that point
i’m lol at “flying gas mains.”
on the first ballistic missile attacks in london during wwii
on the first ballistic missile attacks in london during wwii
May 7, 2023 at 11:26 AM
i’m lol at “flying gas mains.”
on the first ballistic missile attacks in london during wwii
on the first ballistic missile attacks in london during wwii