Joshua “Bud” Davis
@jbuddavis.bsky.social
Environmental & Geophysics Consulting | CFB Analytics
🏆 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge
buymeacoffee.com/jbuddavis
🏆 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge
buymeacoffee.com/jbuddavis
📊Regional Bias in CFB Recruit Rankings
▫️NE most underrated region
▫️South & West appropriately ranked
▫️Rural + Minor Metro consistently underrated
▫️BIG adjustment for value:
▫️#300 Rk Rural South recruit = #100 rk in Exp Value
▫️#100 Rk NE Minor Metro = Borderline 5 Star
▫️NE most underrated region
▫️South & West appropriately ranked
▫️Rural + Minor Metro consistently underrated
▫️BIG adjustment for value:
▫️#300 Rk Rural South recruit = #100 rk in Exp Value
▫️#100 Rk NE Minor Metro = Borderline 5 Star
March 1, 2025 at 7:23 PM
📊Regional Bias in CFB Recruit Rankings
▫️NE most underrated region
▫️South & West appropriately ranked
▫️Rural + Minor Metro consistently underrated
▫️BIG adjustment for value:
▫️#300 Rk Rural South recruit = #100 rk in Exp Value
▫️#100 Rk NE Minor Metro = Borderline 5 Star
▫️NE most underrated region
▫️South & West appropriately ranked
▫️Rural + Minor Metro consistently underrated
▫️BIG adjustment for value:
▫️#300 Rk Rural South recruit = #100 rk in Exp Value
▫️#100 Rk NE Minor Metro = Borderline 5 Star
📊Over/Under-Rated Metro Area HS Recruits
▫️Miami somehow underrated recruiting territory
▫️LA & SF: not THAT different
▫️Philly one of the most underappreciated recruiting territories in the US
▫️Birmingham = Saban Effect?
▫️Non South-FL is rough (JAX - ORL - TPA - NP)
▫️Miami somehow underrated recruiting territory
▫️LA & SF: not THAT different
▫️Philly one of the most underappreciated recruiting territories in the US
▫️Birmingham = Saban Effect?
▫️Non South-FL is rough (JAX - ORL - TPA - NP)
February 24, 2025 at 5:14 PM
📊Over/Under-Rated Metro Area HS Recruits
▫️Miami somehow underrated recruiting territory
▫️LA & SF: not THAT different
▫️Philly one of the most underappreciated recruiting territories in the US
▫️Birmingham = Saban Effect?
▫️Non South-FL is rough (JAX - ORL - TPA - NP)
▫️Miami somehow underrated recruiting territory
▫️LA & SF: not THAT different
▫️Philly one of the most underappreciated recruiting territories in the US
▫️Birmingham = Saban Effect?
▫️Non South-FL is rough (JAX - ORL - TPA - NP)
📊Predictiveness of Official Visits pt 2
Recruiting Services Underrate Recruits who:
▫️Take 4 OVs
▫️Commit to teams that performed well in FPI the previous year (or coach & development effect!)
▫️Visited many high-FPI teams
Recruiting Services Underrate Recruits who:
▫️Take 4 OVs
▫️Commit to teams that performed well in FPI the previous year (or coach & development effect!)
▫️Visited many high-FPI teams
February 20, 2025 at 5:02 PM
📊Predictiveness of Official Visits pt 2
Recruiting Services Underrate Recruits who:
▫️Take 4 OVs
▫️Commit to teams that performed well in FPI the previous year (or coach & development effect!)
▫️Visited many high-FPI teams
Recruiting Services Underrate Recruits who:
▫️Take 4 OVs
▫️Commit to teams that performed well in FPI the previous year (or coach & development effect!)
▫️Visited many high-FPI teams
📊Official Visit Data Analytics
▫️Recruit Rank appears to already account for OVs (flat DVOE)
▫️OV Quality calc'd by Bradley-Terry methods
▫️4 OVs could be signal, but will need to look at more data
▫️OV Quality metrics are flat
▫️TLDR: don't use OVs to adjust recruit ranks
▫️Recruit Rank appears to already account for OVs (flat DVOE)
▫️OV Quality calc'd by Bradley-Terry methods
▫️4 OVs could be signal, but will need to look at more data
▫️OV Quality metrics are flat
▫️TLDR: don't use OVs to adjust recruit ranks
February 19, 2025 at 6:25 PM
📊Official Visit Data Analytics
▫️Recruit Rank appears to already account for OVs (flat DVOE)
▫️OV Quality calc'd by Bradley-Terry methods
▫️4 OVs could be signal, but will need to look at more data
▫️OV Quality metrics are flat
▫️TLDR: don't use OVs to adjust recruit ranks
▫️Recruit Rank appears to already account for OVs (flat DVOE)
▫️OV Quality calc'd by Bradley-Terry methods
▫️4 OVs could be signal, but will need to look at more data
▫️OV Quality metrics are flat
▫️TLDR: don't use OVs to adjust recruit ranks
Working on developing my own HS recruit rankings using ML methods
Draft Probability predictions for 2019 Left and 2024 Right
This is version 0.1, but overall like where we're going
Draft Probability predictions for 2019 Left and 2024 Right
This is version 0.1, but overall like where we're going
February 12, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Working on developing my own HS recruit rankings using ML methods
Draft Probability predictions for 2019 Left and 2024 Right
This is version 0.1, but overall like where we're going
Draft Probability predictions for 2019 Left and 2024 Right
This is version 0.1, but overall like where we're going
Working on a ML model to predict future draft value for HS recruits
It’s a tall order since the draft is a 1/15 filter and the DV curve is exponential
But we know there is predictive info (like pos normalized ht/wt!)
Feature engineering is gonna be key here
It’s a tall order since the draft is a 1/15 filter and the DV curve is exponential
But we know there is predictive info (like pos normalized ht/wt!)
Feature engineering is gonna be key here
February 11, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Working on a ML model to predict future draft value for HS recruits
It’s a tall order since the draft is a 1/15 filter and the DV curve is exponential
But we know there is predictive info (like pos normalized ht/wt!)
Feature engineering is gonna be key here
It’s a tall order since the draft is a 1/15 filter and the DV curve is exponential
But we know there is predictive info (like pos normalized ht/wt!)
Feature engineering is gonna be key here
📊UF 2023 Roster Vizualization
DEF
▫️Serious DL weight
▫️Great size on FR K. James & Collins
▫️Put Weston @ EDGE /s
▫️T. Mitchell is a dude
OFF
▫️Love the OL WT & HT distribution
▫️Hansen is gonna murder a DB
▫️Savaiinaea & Zip don't have the body types
▫️Nice blend of WR sizes
DEF
▫️Serious DL weight
▫️Great size on FR K. James & Collins
▫️Put Weston @ EDGE /s
▫️T. Mitchell is a dude
OFF
▫️Love the OL WT & HT distribution
▫️Hansen is gonna murder a DB
▫️Savaiinaea & Zip don't have the body types
▫️Nice blend of WR sizes
July 18, 2023 at 3:00 PM
📊UF 2023 Roster Vizualization
DEF
▫️Serious DL weight
▫️Great size on FR K. James & Collins
▫️Put Weston @ EDGE /s
▫️T. Mitchell is a dude
OFF
▫️Love the OL WT & HT distribution
▫️Hansen is gonna murder a DB
▫️Savaiinaea & Zip don't have the body types
▫️Nice blend of WR sizes
DEF
▫️Serious DL weight
▫️Great size on FR K. James & Collins
▫️Put Weston @ EDGE /s
▫️T. Mitchell is a dude
OFF
▫️Love the OL WT & HT distribution
▫️Hansen is gonna murder a DB
▫️Savaiinaea & Zip don't have the body types
▫️Nice blend of WR sizes
Reposted by Joshua “Bud” Davis
Insights from SIS college-level "Defenders in the Box" data:
▫️Results are intuitive
▫️4-5 man boxes limit pass game, but are vulnerable to run
▫️7-9 man boxes limit run game, but are vulnerable to the pass
▫️6 man boxes perform well vs both run & pass (goldilocks)
▫️Results are intuitive
▫️4-5 man boxes limit pass game, but are vulnerable to run
▫️7-9 man boxes limit run game, but are vulnerable to the pass
▫️6 man boxes perform well vs both run & pass (goldilocks)
July 7, 2023 at 1:26 AM
Insights from SIS college-level "Defenders in the Box" data:
▫️Results are intuitive
▫️4-5 man boxes limit pass game, but are vulnerable to run
▫️7-9 man boxes limit run game, but are vulnerable to the pass
▫️6 man boxes perform well vs both run & pass (goldilocks)
▫️Results are intuitive
▫️4-5 man boxes limit pass game, but are vulnerable to run
▫️7-9 man boxes limit run game, but are vulnerable to the pass
▫️6 man boxes perform well vs both run & pass (goldilocks)
The first part of my data dive into the CFB transfer portal is up at @cfbnumbers.bsky.social
Most results are intuitive & the portal largely seems to function to help players find an appropriate level of competition
https://cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/statistical-properties-of-the-cfb?utm_source=url
Most results are intuitive & the portal largely seems to function to help players find an appropriate level of competition
https://cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/statistical-properties-of-the-cfb?utm_source=url
July 7, 2023 at 1:22 AM
The first part of my data dive into the CFB transfer portal is up at @cfbnumbers.bsky.social
Most results are intuitive & the portal largely seems to function to help players find an appropriate level of competition
https://cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/statistical-properties-of-the-cfb?utm_source=url
Most results are intuitive & the portal largely seems to function to help players find an appropriate level of competition
https://cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/statistical-properties-of-the-cfb?utm_source=url
This is probably expected, but I've never seen it visualized:
there is a clear relative age bias in highly rated HS football recruits.
there is a clear relative age bias in highly rated HS football recruits.
July 7, 2023 at 1:19 AM
This is probably expected, but I've never seen it visualized:
there is a clear relative age bias in highly rated HS football recruits.
there is a clear relative age bias in highly rated HS football recruits.
Gonna move some of my most useful Twitter posts over here
July 7, 2023 at 1:18 AM
Gonna move some of my most useful Twitter posts over here
📊What Factors Predict CFB Recruiting Success
▫️Part 1: Talent Availability
▫️Roughly 30% of recruiting can be explained by Location
▫️200 mi found to be most-predictive distance for Top 300 players
▫️No surprise Bama/UGA have recruiting success
▫️Deviations discussed in Part 2
▫️Part 1: Talent Availability
▫️Roughly 30% of recruiting can be explained by Location
▫️200 mi found to be most-predictive distance for Top 300 players
▫️No surprise Bama/UGA have recruiting success
▫️Deviations discussed in Part 2
July 7, 2023 at 1:16 AM
📊What Factors Predict CFB Recruiting Success
▫️Part 1: Talent Availability
▫️Roughly 30% of recruiting can be explained by Location
▫️200 mi found to be most-predictive distance for Top 300 players
▫️No surprise Bama/UGA have recruiting success
▫️Deviations discussed in Part 2
▫️Part 1: Talent Availability
▫️Roughly 30% of recruiting can be explained by Location
▫️200 mi found to be most-predictive distance for Top 300 players
▫️No surprise Bama/UGA have recruiting success
▫️Deviations discussed in Part 2
My home for the next two weeks… still less toxic than a 247 board
June 16, 2023 at 9:22 PM
My home for the next two weeks… still less toxic than a 247 board
did some back of the envelope math on the rad exposure of 138 flights & 55,593 miles
probably a +50-75 mrem exposure
roughly the same as 6 chest x-rays. probably took 1 hr off his life expectancy
https://www.reddit.com/r/berkeley/comments/13hv95y/i_survived_living_in_la_and_commuting_to_cal_by/
probably a +50-75 mrem exposure
roughly the same as 6 chest x-rays. probably took 1 hr off his life expectancy
https://www.reddit.com/r/berkeley/comments/13hv95y/i_survived_living_in_la_and_commuting_to_cal_by/
www.reddit.com
May 25, 2023 at 5:53 PM
did some back of the envelope math on the rad exposure of 138 flights & 55,593 miles
probably a +50-75 mrem exposure
roughly the same as 6 chest x-rays. probably took 1 hr off his life expectancy
https://www.reddit.com/r/berkeley/comments/13hv95y/i_survived_living_in_la_and_commuting_to_cal_by/
probably a +50-75 mrem exposure
roughly the same as 6 chest x-rays. probably took 1 hr off his life expectancy
https://www.reddit.com/r/berkeley/comments/13hv95y/i_survived_living_in_la_and_commuting_to_cal_by/
Billy Napier's Roster Makeover
- Napier Recruits/Transfers make up 56 of 83 roster scholarships (67%)
-Napier Guys make up 204 of 265 (77%) remaining eligibility years
-Mullen Guys make up majority of players w/ 1-2 years of eligibility (17/27; 63%). Next year will be ~50/50
- Napier Recruits/Transfers make up 56 of 83 roster scholarships (67%)
-Napier Guys make up 204 of 265 (77%) remaining eligibility years
-Mullen Guys make up majority of players w/ 1-2 years of eligibility (17/27; 63%). Next year will be ~50/50
May 25, 2023 at 1:45 PM
Billy Napier's Roster Makeover
- Napier Recruits/Transfers make up 56 of 83 roster scholarships (67%)
-Napier Guys make up 204 of 265 (77%) remaining eligibility years
-Mullen Guys make up majority of players w/ 1-2 years of eligibility (17/27; 63%). Next year will be ~50/50
- Napier Recruits/Transfers make up 56 of 83 roster scholarships (67%)
-Napier Guys make up 204 of 265 (77%) remaining eligibility years
-Mullen Guys make up majority of players w/ 1-2 years of eligibility (17/27; 63%). Next year will be ~50/50