Blog post link: aptuscapitaladvisors.com/etfs-as-hedg...

In today’s challenging fixed-income environment, structured ETFs shine as liquid alternatives:

-Greater return potential than cash-plus strategies.
-Lower costs and complexity than hedge funds.
-Transparency and liquidity that hedge funds lack.

Structured ETFs might just be Hedge Funds 2.0.

Enter structured (i.e. return stacked) ETFs.

These innovative products combine alpha generation, market beta, and sometimes leverage, all within a tax-efficient wrapper.

Think about layering the Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index’s returns on top of core market beta.

Why do hedge funds lag?

-They’re judged against absolute returns rather than their intended goal: alpha with low correlation.
-High fees erode performance.
-Sacrificing core market beta for alpha often misses the mark.

This isn’t a one-off story. The Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index, tracking 3,000+ funds, has underperformed the S&P 500 by over 7% per year over the past decade.

The result? Underperformance + higher taxes + hefty fees = frustrated investors.

The CAPE uses index level earnings, which equates to earnings by share ownership. Normalizing for buybacks would help, but the other flaws listed (as well as others such as foreign CAPE shown in local vs a normalized currency) would remain.

Investors need a more nuanced approach. As markets evolve, so must our tools for understanding them. Don’t let outdated metrics lead your investment decisions astray.

Full post here (and a way to sign up for future blog posts) aptuscapitaladvisors.com/beware-cape-...

3) CAPE cannot be compared across markets

US Fundamentals have simply been better.

If a market grows EPS by 10% annually, CAPE rises even if the trailing P/E stays constant.

Meanwhile, a market with flat or negative EPS growth could look "cheaper" on CAPE despite weaker fundamentals.

2) CAPE ignores the impact of buybacks, which boost EPS by reducing share counts.

CAPE ignores the impact of buybacks, which boost EPS by reducing share counts.

Two identical companies:

A: Pays dividends
B: Does buybacks

CAPE values B as "more expensive," even if their businesses are identical.

1) The U.S. market has evolved dramatically

CAPE’s numerator reflects CURRENT market caps of today’s leaders, but the denominator uses decade-old EPS when those stocks were much smaller.

Example: NVDA price now reflects massive growth, but CAPE uses earnings from when it was 0.06% of the index.

There are at least three critical issues with CAPE in modern markets.

1) The U.S. market has evolved dramatically.
2) CAPE ignores the impact of buybacks, which boost EPS by reducing share counts.
3) CAPE cannot be compared across markets

What is the CAPE ratio? It divides the current market price by the average inflation-adjusted EPS (not earnings... more on that) over the last 10 years.

CAPE = Current Price / Avg. Real EPS (10 years)

The idea: smooth out earnings over a business cycle to avoid short-term noise.

youtu.be/R1KCjHbKM_s?...

Not sure we’ve seen that this cycle though. 1/2 the population said we had it worse today than during the GFC or COV-19 lows when unemployment was ~4%, but they kept spending and the economy and markets kept moving up

Yep. Turn Twitter back to Twitter… they unfortunately all learned how to monetize social from TikTok

But… while not cheap (by any measure) prices and even mortgage payments aren’t nearly the outlier relative to disposable income.

What has changed is they aren’t historically cheap like they were even a few short years ago.

Full post: aptuscapitaladvisors.com/housing-mark...

Question is will he reverse course as soon as sentiment sours or will blaming Biden for it appease his base?

If they do everything the say (massive budget cuts, immigrant deportation, tariffs) it’s going to be a wildcard as to what ends up happening on the inflation front (I can see inflation to material deflation) but hard to see this how that wouldn’t lead to economic contraction.