Source for ruling: thehill.com/regulation/c...

See link below for most recent Lane Picker COPS update
and pinned post on why we're tracking these as part of Phase 2 spoiling counters:

bsky.app/profile/info...

1 case dismissed on the merits
2 cases dimissed for standing or jurisdiction
(not all case statuses are listed so sum of case statuses != sum of cases) 6/6

12 temporary restraining orders (TRO) granted, halting Presidential actions until PI can be ruled on
4 TRO’s denied and the case continues
12 preliminary injunctions (PI) granted, halting Presidential action until the case is concluded
1 PI denied, and the case continues 5/6

83 current legal actions tracked representing 90 original cases
47 cases proceeding with no ruling yet
1 consent decree managing a Presidential action
1 administrative stay granted halting Presidential action until TRO or PI can be ruled on 4/6

Actions subject to a temporary restraining orders (drk green) are halted for a few days, while preliminary injunctions (lt green) are halted until the trial concludes. Actions still in effect (bright red) will most likely require backfill local provision of services or support. 3/6

The COPS aligns with Phase 2 Spoiling Counters of the phase-based forecast scenario (see pinned post), where already existing well-funded organizations use lawsuits to slow #Presidential overreach while everyone else uses a Fabian strategy to build capacity. 2/6

Dictator's Dilemma:
infomullet.com/2020/03/31/d...

CLD of Kilcullen's Accidental Guerilla Theory:
youtu.be/j06z0LJmXWM 31/31

𝑨𝒅𝒅𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝑺𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒔:
Emerging State Actor Hypothesis: www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/6/...

Root Causes of Radicalization: incose.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

Contingencies of Violent Radicalization:
www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/9/... 30/31

Worse, all the time they spend degrading their capabilities is time *not* spent on organizing local resources to backstop the problems and also accumulate the frictions. This planning forecast shows where they can show up and prepare, and when/where they can join in for maximum effectiveness. 29/31

Most people now, TBH, are accumulating stressors that degrade their ability to sustain and don’t know what to do. Watch for how frequently people report "getting exhausted" or "fatigued" and noping out. 28/31

KEY TAKEAWAY ACROSS ALL FIVE PHASES: Individuals must plan and organizing to sustain for the long term and accelerate the accumulation of transactional frictions to reach that threshold tipping point at Phase 4. 27/31

Notable exceptions are in areas of absolutely core Presidential unitary power (e.g. foreign relations, military actions, Federal law enforcement or where Congress regrettably has ceded authority etc.) 26/31

𝑷𝒉𝒂𝒔𝒆 5: 𝑭𝒊𝒙 & 𝑯𝒐𝒍𝒅. When Trump loses or doesn’t think he’s popular he shifts between rages and listlessness. Going forward from the crisis with a few exceptions, the Trump administration is one of a list of 'things not achieved' quickly becoming internal blaming and fingerpointing. 25/31

The key goal of mass mobilization is to both counter the immediate crisis with civil actions and deter escalation by the sheer size of response. Strategy Source: www.amazon.com/Civil-Resist... 24/31

If the crisis phase occurs, this is when Chenoweth’s civil resistance is employed. Groups that have been preparing for civil resistance since the beginning can now join in. People who haven’t been preparing but just want to “show up and do something” will also probably join in here. 23/31

In 2020 these were the BLM protests. During this crisis, Trump may take a severe action to impose some form of Federal control over all levels. Similar to his attempt to invoke Insurrection Act, in JUN 20 but was rebuffed DoD leadership which backed him off. Or it may look different. 22/31

𝑪𝑹𝑰𝑺𝑰𝑺 (𝒀𝒆𝒂𝒓 3-4) When Trumps frustration at a stalled agenda mounts, in his third staff rotation, and with additive complexity closing in, a domestic crisis will occur. This will be emergent, not forecast in advance, or plan intentionally, but it will be obvious when it happens. 21/31

Strategy Source: infomullet.com/2020/07/29/u... 20/31