Philipp Heimberger
@heimbergecon.bsky.social
Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw); macroeconomics, economic policy, public finance, political economy, meta-science.
This paper shows: support for lower taxes declines significantly when this comes into conflict with other fiscal policy objectives, e.g. social spending. Regressive reforms receive less support than progressive reforms. Left-leaning, high-income voters resist tax reductions more.
November 21, 2025 at 9:11 AM
This paper shows: support for lower taxes declines significantly when this comes into conflict with other fiscal policy objectives, e.g. social spending. Regressive reforms receive less support than progressive reforms. Left-leaning, high-income voters resist tax reductions more.
This paper examines a journal policy removing significance stars from regression tables and finds no significant effect on p-hacking, the preference for statistically significant results. It seems cosmetic changes don't eliminate the underlying incentive to chase significance.
November 21, 2025 at 6:39 AM
This paper examines a journal policy removing significance stars from regression tables and finds no significant effect on p-hacking, the preference for statistically significant results. It seems cosmetic changes don't eliminate the underlying incentive to chase significance.
Academic publishing is a lucrative business for a very small number of private academic publishers. For 🇦🇹, this paper estimates: public spending benefits publishing companies with a large amount - 25% of the annual basic funding universities receive from the Ministry of education
November 20, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Academic publishing is a lucrative business for a very small number of private academic publishers. For 🇦🇹, this paper estimates: public spending benefits publishing companies with a large amount - 25% of the annual basic funding universities receive from the Ministry of education
National fiscal policy in EU member countries has turned contractionary. Defence spending is rising, with larger cuts elsewhere. Nationally funded investment will fall in 2025–27, and EU recovery funds will cease to cushion the decline after 2027.
November 19, 2025 at 6:49 AM
National fiscal policy in EU member countries has turned contractionary. Defence spending is rising, with larger cuts elsewhere. Nationally funded investment will fall in 2025–27, and EU recovery funds will cease to cushion the decline after 2027.
National fiscal policy in EU member countries has turned contractionary. Defence spending is rising, with larger cuts elsewhere. Nationally funded investment will fall in 2025–27, and EU recovery funds will cease to cushion the decline after 2027.
November 19, 2025 at 6:48 AM
National fiscal policy in EU member countries has turned contractionary. Defence spending is rising, with larger cuts elsewhere. Nationally funded investment will fall in 2025–27, and EU recovery funds will cease to cushion the decline after 2027.
"academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who created it... The dominant four collectively generated... $12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024."
November 18, 2025 at 6:48 AM
"academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who created it... The dominant four collectively generated... $12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024."
This paper shows it's important to account for fiscal policy’s impact on productivity: long periods of large primary surpluses can depress investment and growth, making public debt stabilisation harder. Pro-growth fiscal reforms may boost productivity, make debt easier to sustain
November 17, 2025 at 8:56 AM
This paper shows it's important to account for fiscal policy’s impact on productivity: long periods of large primary surpluses can depress investment and growth, making public debt stabilisation harder. Pro-growth fiscal reforms may boost productivity, make debt easier to sustain
Germany used to run large trade surpluses in capital goods with China (exports > imports). Since the start of 2025, Germany has been running a trade deficit with China.
November 14, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Germany used to run large trade surpluses in capital goods with China (exports > imports). Since the start of 2025, Germany has been running a trade deficit with China.
Our simulations based on five national medium-term fiscal-structural plans (Austria, Finland, France, Germany and Italy) show that growth-enhancing measures increase potential output and thus expand fiscal space, while growth-reducing measures do the opposite.
November 13, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Our simulations based on five national medium-term fiscal-structural plans (Austria, Finland, France, Germany and Italy) show that growth-enhancing measures increase potential output and thus expand fiscal space, while growth-reducing measures do the opposite.
In this paper, we propose to make potential output estimates in EU fiscal rules policy-responsive in assessing fiscal space via debt sustainability analysis. Allow public investment, R&D expenditure, and labour-supply reforms to affect potential output and fiscal space!
November 13, 2025 at 12:39 PM
In this paper, we propose to make potential output estimates in EU fiscal rules policy-responsive in assessing fiscal space via debt sustainability analysis. Allow public investment, R&D expenditure, and labour-supply reforms to affect potential output and fiscal space!
Large language models like ChatGPT make writing much cheaper and easier. This disrupts markets where writing used to signal a person’s ability, e.g. job applications. Customization of applications no longer indicates real ability; employers struggle to find the best workers
November 13, 2025 at 7:03 AM
Large language models like ChatGPT make writing much cheaper and easier. This disrupts markets where writing used to signal a person’s ability, e.g. job applications. Customization of applications no longer indicates real ability; employers struggle to find the best workers
New paper on the fatal consequences of job loss using 🇫🇮 administrative data: "For every 100,000 displaced men, there are 1,100 additional deaths. 60% accrue to the displaced worker, 40% are due to excess spousal mortality.. no such dire consequences are observed after a woman’s job loss"
November 12, 2025 at 8:55 AM
New paper on the fatal consequences of job loss using 🇫🇮 administrative data: "For every 100,000 displaced men, there are 1,100 additional deaths. 60% accrue to the displaced worker, 40% are due to excess spousal mortality.. no such dire consequences are observed after a woman’s job loss"
Economic growth in Germany since reunification has mostly benefited the middle and upper middle class up to the 99th percentile. Income inequality (pre-tax) in 🇩🇪 is similar to the 🇺🇸 and higher than in 🇫🇷. Inequality has increased, but less than previous studies suggest.
November 11, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Economic growth in Germany since reunification has mostly benefited the middle and upper middle class up to the 99th percentile. Income inequality (pre-tax) in 🇩🇪 is similar to the 🇺🇸 and higher than in 🇫🇷. Inequality has increased, but less than previous studies suggest.
Germany's exports to China have declined strongly.
November 10, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Germany's exports to China have declined strongly.
In the past 20 yrs, China extended >$800 billion in loans to emerging market and developing country economies to finance infrastructure, energy etc. China’s loan portfolio surpassed those of the World Bank, the IMF, and all 22 Paris Club creditor governments combined.
November 8, 2025 at 6:57 AM
In the past 20 yrs, China extended >$800 billion in loans to emerging market and developing country economies to finance infrastructure, energy etc. China’s loan portfolio surpassed those of the World Bank, the IMF, and all 22 Paris Club creditor governments combined.
Findings from this paper have helped support specific analyses of the ECB’s 2025 monetary policy strategy assessment. The chapter presenting our empirical meta-analysis appears on pages 74–91. Source:
www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpo...
www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpo...
November 7, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Findings from this paper have helped support specific analyses of the ECB’s 2025 monetary policy strategy assessment. The chapter presenting our empirical meta-analysis appears on pages 74–91. Source:
www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpo...
www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpo...
This new ECB paper serves as a reference guide to ECB models and empirical benchmarks on monetary policy transmission and extensively reports the findings of our recent meta-analysis on the effects of conventional monetary policy on output and prices.
November 7, 2025 at 6:36 AM
This new ECB paper serves as a reference guide to ECB models and empirical benchmarks on monetary policy transmission and extensively reports the findings of our recent meta-analysis on the effects of conventional monetary policy on output and prices.
Important paper on the role of ideological biases of individual staffers in driving policy decisions taken by international organizations: "we find that individual staffers influence the number, scope, and content of IMF conditions according to their personal ideological biases."
November 6, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Important paper on the role of ideological biases of individual staffers in driving policy decisions taken by international organizations: "we find that individual staffers influence the number, scope, and content of IMF conditions according to their personal ideological biases."
IMF: "only about half of fiscal consolidations achieve their fiscal targets, including debt reduction. A broad range of econometric methods, based on well-established methods in the empirical literature, confirm that fiscal consolidations do not reduce debt ratios, on average."
November 4, 2025 at 11:53 AM
IMF: "only about half of fiscal consolidations achieve their fiscal targets, including debt reduction. A broad range of econometric methods, based on well-established methods in the empirical literature, confirm that fiscal consolidations do not reduce debt ratios, on average."
This IMF paper finds that during and after the 2022 global inflation surge - largely driven by supply shocks - inflation outcomes in inflation-targeting countries were no better than in non-targeting countries, despite the former implementing more aggressive interest rate hikes.
November 4, 2025 at 7:44 AM
This IMF paper finds that during and after the 2022 global inflation surge - largely driven by supply shocks - inflation outcomes in inflation-targeting countries were no better than in non-targeting countries, despite the former implementing more aggressive interest rate hikes.
The decline of public property: in recent decades, the public share of total assets has declined. Net public assets (i.e., assets minus liabilities) in major European countries have fallen to just above zero (from 20-30% in 1978), while private assets have risen to >6 times GDP.
November 3, 2025 at 1:46 PM
The decline of public property: in recent decades, the public share of total assets has declined. Net public assets (i.e., assets minus liabilities) in major European countries have fallen to just above zero (from 20-30% in 1978), while private assets have risen to >6 times GDP.
This paper shows: the 2022 energy crisis led to record global profits for fossil fuel companies. The US gained the most, with claims on US$301 billion, exceeding its US$267 billion investment in low-carbon energy. Half of profits went to the top1%, mainly through stock ownership
November 3, 2025 at 6:44 AM
This paper shows: the 2022 energy crisis led to record global profits for fossil fuel companies. The US gained the most, with claims on US$301 billion, exceeding its US$267 billion investment in low-carbon energy. Half of profits went to the top1%, mainly through stock ownership
Publication bias is greater at the top five journals: "56% of statistically significant results [in leading econ journals] were selected to be statistically significant. Selection bias is greater at top5 journals, where 66% of significant results were selected to be significant."
October 31, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Publication bias is greater at the top five journals: "56% of statistically significant results [in leading econ journals] were selected to be statistically significant. Selection bias is greater at top5 journals, where 66% of significant results were selected to be significant."
Private consumption in Germany has been hammered.
October 31, 2025 at 6:21 AM
Private consumption in Germany has been hammered.