5-5 But restraint alone is not enough. Allowing the protests to proceed helped contain the moment, but the grievances behind them remain unresolved. Unless genuinely addressed, discontent will grow – and so will the risk of wider unrest. End.

4-5 The discipline shown by the security forces, and their decision to allow the protests to proceed, suggests the authorities understand the political cost of violence and the need to take preventive measures to keep unrest from escalating.

3-5 And although the turnout was modest, coordinated protests across multiple cities suggest the emergence of figures capable of mobilising segments of the community, even if only modestly for now. This signals a potentially important shift in communal leadership dynamics.

2-5 They point to a shift within Alawite communities. Frustration with the security, economic, and political conditions has reached a boiling point, changing the community’s internal calculus: the cost of staying silent now, at least for some, outweighs the cost of speaking.