At the 2026 Munich Security Conference, entrepreneur and Project Liberty founder Frank McCourt makes the case that the internet, and the AI systems rapidly reshaping it, must be redesigned to serve people, not platforms. McCourt argues that today’s tech ecosystem is built on centralized, surveillance-driven incentives that clash with democratic values. As the world shifts from an app-based web to an “agentic” one powered by AI agents, he says we’re at a rare moment to rethink the architecture of the internet itself. * * * What would it mean to own your digital data? Could sovereign AI agents act as fiduciaries for individuals? And can innovation and democracy coexist in the next era of technology? This conversation is presented by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical conversations on the geopolitical forces reshaping our world.

**41.5%:** The proportion of Havana’s garbage trucks that were operational this month, according to state-run media, as Cuba’s _fuel crisis_ prompts a garbage crisis. Rotten food, cardboard boxes, and plastic bottles have been piling up on the streets. Just 44 of 106 garbage trucks were functioning. * * * **59:** The number of people who have _died_ in Madagascar due to Cyclone Gezani, which hit the island nation last week. Another 15 remain missing, while over 16,000 people have been displaced. The cyclone had sustained winds of 115 miles per hour. **9.5 billion:** The record _number_ of passenger trips that are expected across China during the Lunar New Year holiday to usher in the Year of the Horse. The Chinese government is hoping the holiday will _boost_ domestic spending, which it identified as a priority for the year ahead. **60:** The number of days that Israel gave Hamas to _disarm_ in an ultimatum issued yesterday. As expected, the militant group rejected those demands, which is a critical facet of the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal.

### Iran shows its leverage over Strait of Hormuz ahead of nuclear talks Iran temporarily and partially shut down the Strait of Hormuz – the maritime entryway that handles over _20%_ of the world’s oil and gas shipping – ahead of a second round of nuclear talks with the US. The move was a show of leverage by Iran, signaling strength to its citizens and its ability to influence global oil prices. Despite the display, Iran is coming into negotiations on weak footing. Its economy is collapsing under sanctions, and it’s staring down the barrel of the US military buildup in the region. Washington’s demands now go beyond Iran’s nuclear program, including limits on ballistic missiles. Iran is highly unlikely to accept those conditions, Eurasia Group’s Iran expert **Greg Brew** recently _told_ GZERO. However, after the first day of talks, Iran vaguely said that officials had _agreed_ to a “set of guiding principles.” Meanwhile, parallel peace talks are underway in Switzerland on the Russia-Ukraine war. * * * ### US threats to Iran prompt China to seek more Russian crude Chinese imports of Russian oil are set to reach a _record_ high in February, as both small “teapot” refineries and larger firms capitalize on the discounted fuel. Shipments to China are expected to surpass two million barrels per day, up from 1.7 mb/d in January, according to two early assessments. US threats to Iran, which is a major oil supplier to China, have prompted Chinese refineries to seek more crude from Russian sources. The move contrasts with Indian refineries, which have drastically started cutting Russian oil purchases as part of a trade deal with the United States _announced_ earlier this month by President **Donald Trump**. ### Saharan thaw: Algeria and Niger to build a major pipeline Last spring, Algeria and Niger – two sprawling North African countries — nearly went to war after Algeria _shot down_ a drone from Mali, a close ally of Niger’s. Ambassadors were recalled, and longstanding plans to jointly build a 4,000-kilometer gas pipeline were shelved. But after a visit this week to Algiers by Niger’s president, **Abdourahamane Tiani** , _all appears to be forgiven_, and the project will now go ahead. It’s a big deal: the Trans Saharan Gas Pipeline _would bring_ more than 30 billion cubic meters of gas yearly from Nigeria, across Niger, to Algeria. Europe, which is trying to wean itself off of Russian gas, is taking note: those new volumes could complement the roughly 40 billion cubic meters of gas that Algeria ___already exports___ to the EU.

For decades, the Munich Security Conference has functioned as the annual “ _family reunion_” of the transatlantic alliance – a place where American and European leaders and diplomats come together to discuss international security. Since 1963, it’s revolved around a core assumption: the relationship between the United States and Europe is durable within a US-led global order, even when tested. But this year’s theme, “Under Destruction,” set a different tone. A report prepared by the conference framed US President **Donald Trump** as one of the most prominent “ _demolition men_,” tearing down the world order the US anchored for generations, without clear ideas about what would replace it. * * * But Munich also made clear that the US itself is divided over what that destruction means, and what should come next. Munich provided a platform for Secretary of State **Marco Rubio** and Democratic Rep. **Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez** – _both_ _floated_ as potential presidential contenders in 2028 – to present dueling visions of America’s role in the world. **Rubio’s civilizational challenge.** After Vice President **JD Vance** delivered _scorching_ _criticism_ of European leaders at last year’s gathering – including over perceived limits on free speech and ill treatment of far-right parties – there was much speculation about whether Rubio’s keynote would follow suit. In the end, the secretary of state offered a more conciliatory approach, garnering applause instead of the shock that met Vance’s address. Rubio appealed to what he described as shared Western heritage – rooted in Christianity and the rule of law – which he argued is now under siege. While Vance lambasted European leaders for allowing mass migration to create a “ _threat from within_,” _Rubio included_ America in that critique, lamenting “an unprecedented wave of mass migration that threatens the cohesion of our societies, the continuity of our culture, and the future of our people.” Although Rubio argued that America’s destiny “ _will always be intertwined_” with the continent’s, he made clear that cooperation would depend on European nations tightening their borders and increasing defense spending, _which they have done_. Otherwise, the US will go it alone. “We in America have no interest in being polite and orderly caretakers of the West’s managed decline,” he said. The substance of his message was clear: America will still show up for Europe, but on Washington’s terms. **Ocasio-Cortez’s age of authoritarians.** In her most prominent appearance yet on the international stage, Ocasio-Cortez delivered a message that contrasted sharply with Rubio’s. Bringing her working-class, progressive economic framework to Munich, she argued that democracies lose legitimacy if they don’t deliver material benefits at home and when they abandon their values abroad. Rising inequality, she said, has fueled an emerging “age of authoritarianism,” one in which everyday people turn away from democracy and toward far-right populism when their economic needs aren’t met. She _accused_ Trump of tearing apart the transatlantic relationship and attempting to create spheres of influence, where he treats the Western Hemisphere as his “personal sandbox,” and Russia’s **Vladimir Putin** has free rein to escalate pressure on American allies in Europe. Ocasio-Cortez also _drew attention_ for a few notable stumbles on policy questions, most prominently on whether the US should send troops to Taiwan if China invaded. After fumbling for 20 seconds, she reiterated America’s longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity. Despite the critiques, Ocasio-Cortez argued the transatlantic partnership need not be abandoned. The “vast majority” of Americans want close ties with Europe, she said, and _called for_ a return to “rules-based order,” with some new conditions. That, in her view, requires eliminating what she called “hypocrisiesm” such as support for Israel during the war in Gaza, which _she controversially qualified_ as a genocide. She argued that rules must apply to friends as well as foes, citing the _Leahy laws_, which bar US security assistance to “foreign security force units when there is credible information that the unit has committed gross violations of human rights.” **What these visions mean for US politics.** Despite being delivered thousands of miles away from the US, both Rubio's and Ocasio-Cortez’s remarks could have served as stump speeches ahead of key mid-term elections this year and the 2028 presidential contest. Domestically, Rubio’s speech lined up neatly with _MAGA objectives_: tightening immigration, preserving a sense of cultural identity, and hostility to “globalism.” It effectively translated foreign policy into a culture war-and-security agenda to energize the Republican base ahead of the midterms. Ocasio-Cortez pitched working-class American voters, in their pocketbooks and on the streets. She _called on Democrats_ to “get our house in order” to materially improve lives for average Americans, or risk falling into a more “isolated world governed by authoritarians that also do not deliver to working people.” Her callout to safeguard human rights abroad echoed alleged violations by the US government at home, such as _warrantless raids_, _sweeps, and detention_ of US citizens by ICE, which _could spur some_ Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 to return to the Democratic fold. **What it means for geopolitics.** While their goals differ, Rubio and Ocasio-Cortez have one thing in common: they offer Europe an alliance conditional on shared expectations and values. Rubio insists on Europe assuming more responsibility for its security and a commitment to preventing “civilizational erasure,” while Ocasio-Cortez demands that social benefits be shared with workers and that human rights be respected. In other words, the transatlantic family can stay together, but under specific conditions. The question is whether Europe will accept them.

This week on GZERO World, Council on Foreign Relations President **Michael Froman** tells **Ian Bremmer** that under Trump's second term, he’s been less surprised by a single policy shift than by how quickly other countries have adapted to them. * * * From sweeping tariffs to threats of military action, Trump has demonstrated a willingness to use American leverage early and often. “They’re not happy necessarily about it,” Froman says of US allies and partners, “but they are adjusting.”The longer-term concern, Froman warns, is structural. If the United States shifts from defending the postwar rules-based order to challenging it, does that create a “permission structure” for others to act unilaterally as well? And what kind of global system emerges if more countries decide to follow Washington’s lead?

Council on Foreign Relations President **Michael Froman** weighs on how the Trump administration’s approach to global power is shifting from defender to challenger of the post-WWII international order. Froman breaks down how tariffs, once used for retaliating against unfair trade practices, have become tools of leverage on a wide range of issues—“the most beautiful word in the English dictionary,” as President Trump put it. * * * “You don’t have to think about going through dispute settlement processes” or follow established protocols, Froman tells **Ian Bremmer**. Instead, Trump’s approach is yielding American power as needed. With this shift, Froman raises the question: what happens when other countries begin to adopt this unilateral approach? “We were the defenders,” he says, “now we are seen as one of the challengers. Does that create a permission structure for other countries to challenge it as well?”

China was largely absent from the core conversations at the 2026 Munich Security Conference. That, says **Ian Bremmer** , is telling. In this Global Stage clip, Bremmer warns that in the AI space between the US and China, there is “literally zero trust.” No governance framework. No coordination. Only escalation and acceleration. * * * While tech companies are stepping in to promote the rule of law and cross-border alignment, geopolitical fragmentation risks pushing the world toward deeper decoupling and potentially a new kind of cold war. Can technological alignment outpace political fragmentation?

At the 62nd Munich Security Conference, **Parag Khanna** , founder and CEO of AlphaGeo, says globalization isn't dead, it's evolving. Speaking with GZERO’s **Tony Maciulis** , he explains that countries are forming flexible alliances that expand and shrink based on their interests. “You’d rather be in the tent...if it suits your interest than not in it,” Khanna notes, highlighting how the US, Europe, and Asia are adapting to shifting global priorities. * * * Khanna also explores trade, maritime security, and multi-alignment strategies, stressing that “everyone is hedging, everyone is diversifying." While these coalitions can create stability, Khanna stresses they can also produce tensions when countries balance economic opportunities against political or values-based goals. This conversation is presented by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical conversations on the geopolitical forces reshaping our world.

Sovereignty has become one of the most powerful, and least defined, words in tech policy. At the 2026 Munich Security Conference, SAP global head of government affairs, **Wolfgang Dierker** , explains why governments and enterprise customers are demanding more control over their data, cloud infrastructure, and AI systems amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. * * * Customers still need cloud software and artificial intelligence to stay competitive. But increasingly, especially in the public sector, they want “sovereign cloud” and “sovereign AI," solutions that guarantee maximum control, compliance, and security. There’s just one problem: there’s no unified definition of sovereignty. Is it about data residency? Operational control? Legal jurisdiction? Architectural design? As Dierker notes, without harmonized standards, companies are left offering tailored, case-by-case solutions. And as Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith adds, partnerships like Microsoft, SAP, and Germany’s Delos aim to combine national control with global technology integration. In a fragmented world, can digital sovereignty be both secure and connected? Watch the full Global Stage conversation from Munich.

On the sidelines of the 2026 Munich Security Conference, **Annemarie Hou** , Executive Director of the United Nations Office of Partnerships, joined Tony Maciulis to discuss the power of women leaders in global decision-making. Hou highlighted the UN’s Women Rise for All initiative, explaining that during the COVID pandemic, women “came to the front lines of leading in really different and creative ways.” She emphasized that when women participate in peace processes, agreements are 35% more likely to succeed. “Women naturally bring more people in, are looking around to see who’s missing,” she said, underscoring the importance of inclusivity. * * * Hou also stressed the need to support girls at the community level, addressing barriers such as mental health and access to leadership pathways. Reflecting on optimism in conflict-affected areas, she noted, “When women have voice and agency, they have a much more optimistic viewpoint.” This conversation is presented by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical conversations on the geopolitical forces reshaping our world.

Security today isn’t just about tanks and treaties. It’s about algorithms, undersea cables, digital sovereignty, and whether democracies can adapt fast enough in a world that feels increasingly disorderly. In a new Global Stage livestream from the 2026 Munich Security Conference, New York Times White House and national security correspondent **David Sanger** moderates a conversation with **Ian Bremmer** (President & Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media), **Brad Smith** (Vice Chair & President, Microsoft), **Benedetta Berti** (Secretary General, NATO Parliamentary Assembly), and **Wolfgang Dierker** (Global Head of Government Affairs, SAP) on how technology and defense are colliding in real time. * * * So what is Europe’s greatest danger right now? Ian Bremmer argues it’s not immediate escalation, but a failure to adapt. NATO does not face an existential threat today, he says, but it does face a reform test. The fastest-growing security risks are driven by new technologies the alliance was never designed to integrate. Survival isn’t the question. Modernization is. Brad Smith warns that cyber conflict has entered a new phase, with artificial intelligence accelerating both attack and defense. Ransomware networks now operate with AI-enhanced infrastructure, lowering the barrier for bad actors. While defenders are collaborating more closely, responses have often been “too timid.” Without stronger attribution and real cyber deterrence, asymmetric attacks will continue with few consequences. Benedetta Berti describes hybrid warfare, such as cable sabotage, energy coercion, and disinformation, as the “new normal.” NATO’s answer has been resilience: intelligence sharing, hardened infrastructure, and deterrence by denial. “We may not be at war,” she notes, “but we’re not at peace.” The conversation also turns to digital sovereignty and the launch of a new Trusted Tech Alliance: 16 companies from 11 countries committing to protect cross-border technology flows and reinforce shared principles. Wolfgang Dierker highlights rising demand for sovereign cloud and sovereign AI solutions, even as definitions remain fragmented. Ian Bremmer places it all in a wider geopolitical context: China’s relative absence from Munich underscores the deeper problem. In the US–China AI space, he argues, there is “literally zero trust.” Without governance frameworks to manage technological competition, fragmentation could harden into decoupling. Running through it all is a central tension: speed versus safeguards. Can democracies build resilience and impose real costs on cyber aggression while preserving trust and rule of law? The Global Stage series, presented by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft, convenes leaders at major international forums to examine how technology, politics, and security intersect in an era of accelerating change.

Hybrid warfare isn’t coming. It’s here. At the 2026 Munich Security Conference, NATO Parliamentary Secretary General **Benedetta Berti** explains why hybrid threats, from undersea cable sabotage to disinformation, energy coercion, and cyberattacks, are no longer isolated incidents but a defining feature of today’s security environment. “This is a feature, not a bug,” she says during GZERO's Global Stage discussion. “We may not be at war as NATO, but we’re not at peace.” * * * So how is the alliance adapting? NATO is strengthening shared intelligence, building real-time situational awareness, hardening critical infrastructure, and focusing on resilience as a form of deterrence, like making 5G networks, electric grids, and transportation systems less vulnerable to attack. The next step: imposing real costs on adversaries operating in the gray zone. Can NATO move from reacting to deterring? Watch the full Global Stage conversation from Munich.

In this Quick Take from Munich,**Ian Bremmer** examines the state of the transatlantic alliance as the 62nd Munich Security Conference concludes. He points to Secretary of State **Marco Rubio** ’s speech, which “received a standing ovation,” but cautions that European expectations remain low. * * * Ian focuses on the Ukraine war, noting the pressure on Kyiv and the risk of a US-Russia deal: “Are the Europeans going to hold together if the Americans cut a deal with the Russians by themselves? People are skeptical.” He also raises concerns about Europe’s economic and political cohesion: “Europe is 27 countries and they’re institutionally hobbled from all acting together.” Ian concludes that while leaders understand the problems, “they have not settled on the nature of a solution,” leaving the future of transatlantic cooperation uncertain as the US continues to dominate the alliance’s agenda.

Sixteen companies. Eleven countries. One message: digital trust can’t wait. At the 2026 Munich Security Conference, **Brad Smith** announces the launch of the Trusted Tech Alliance, a coalition of global technology leaders, including Microsoft, committing to secure cross-border tech flows, ethical governance, and stronger data protections. * * * As Smith puts it, AI is global. The response must be collaborative, with shared principles, independent assessments, and real accountability. Can industry move faster than geopolitics? Watch the full Global Stage conversation from Munich.

**Listen:** From sweeping tariffs to threats of military action and withdrawal from international institutions, **Trump** has demonstrated a willingness to break with the United States' approach to international relations. When the US shifts from global order architect to challenger, what kind of system emerges and how do other countries react? On the GZERO World Podcast, **Ian Bremmer** sits down with former US Trade Representative and Council on Foreign Relations President **Michael Froman** to discuss. Michael Froman tells Ian Bremmer that under Trump's second term, he’s been less surprised by a single policy shift than by how quickly other countries have adapted to them. As allies hedge and adversaries like China step into new leadership roles, they unpack how the world order is evolving and discuss the most pressing issues. _Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on_ _Apple Podcasts_ _,__Spotify_ _,__Stitcher_ ___, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published_

**Tune in today at 12pm ET/6pm CET** for the live premiere of our Global Stage from the 2026 Munich Security Conference, where our panel of experts takes aim at the latest global security challenges. NY Times National Security Correspondent **David Sanger** moderates the discussion with **Benedetta Berti** , Secretary General, NATO Parliamentary Assembly; **Ian Bremmer** , President & Co-founder, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media; **Dr. Wolfgang Dierker** , Global Head of Government Affairs, SAP; and **Brad Smith** , Vice Chair & President, Microsoft. National defense is no longer a question of just geographic borders or physical artillery. In a world of VPNs, advanced AI, and sophisticated cybercrime, governments must protect themselves against the ever-evolving threat of digital sabotage. Online criminal groups can imperil domestic institutions like businesses or bureaus, but nation-states also engage in cyber-warfare against their enemies to gain valuable resources or subvert democracy, inventing new ways to breach both firewalls and city walls. This form of "hybrid conflict," as seen in the war in Ukraine, poses a significant risk to Europe and its allies abroad. Worse yet, the widespread adoption of AI has opened a Pandora’s Box of unanticipated dangers. How can European institutions stay secure? Don't miss our Global Stage live premiere this Saturday from the sidelines of the **2026 Munich Security Conference** , featuring a panel of experts in policy, technology, and geopolitics. Tune in to **Global Stage: Live from Munich** on **Saturday, February 14th** at **12 pm ET/6pm CET** at gzeromedia.com/globalstage. Add to Calendar **Participants** : * **Benedetta Berti** , Secretary General, NATO Parliamentary Assembly * **Ian Bremmer** , President & Co-founder, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media * **Dr. Wolfgang Dierker** , Global Head of Government Affairs, SAP * **Brad Smith** , Vice Chair & President, Microsoft * **David Sanger** (Moderator), National Security Correspondent, The New York Times**** This livestream is the latest in the Webby-nominated Global Stage series, a partnership between GZERO and Microsoft that examines critical issues at the intersection of technology, politics, and society. * * * **Global Stage: Live from Munich ****Live Premiere: Saturday, February 14th at 12pm ET / 6pm CET ****gzeromedia.com/globalstage**

**Alina Polyakova** , President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis, warns that NATO faces a defining moment. From the sidelines of the 62nd Munich Security Conference in Munich, Polyakova told GZERO's **Tony Maciulis** that the Arctic has become “an arena of incredible global competition,” with Russia and China expanding their ambitions. While **President Trump** ’s focus reflects “the right instincts” on security, she argues allies must strike a mutual deal to secure the region together. * * * On NATO more broadly, Polyakova says Trump’s pressure has cut both ways, strengthening European defense spending while raising doubts about Article V, which ultimately rests on trust. Turning to Ukraine, she cautions that Russia’s war is not about territory, but about weakening Europe through a widening “shadow war” of sabotage and cyberattacks. Still, she sees long-term opportunity: Ukraine could become Europe’s defense industrial base, fueling innovation, human capital, and economic growth. This conversation is presented by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical conversations on the geopolitical forces reshaping our world.

In the latest “Ian Explains,” **Ian Bremmer** examines the shift from decades of US-led global leadership to **President Trump** ’s more unilateral “America First” approach. From withdrawing from international agreements to reviving tariffs and allowing key arms control treaties to lapse, the signals suggest Washington is pulling back. But is it? From forceful action in Venezuela to an explicit doctrine of dominance in the Western Hemisphere, Trump has shown he’s willing to assert American power — just not through the institutions that defined the postwar order. As allies hedge and adversaries like China step into new leadership roles, Bremmer asks whether the United States is retreating from the world, or redefining how it leads it.

### In a bid to de-risk, Europe turns inward European Union leaders agreed to move _ahead_ with “Buy European” policies as part of a broader push to de-risk from the US and boost competitiveness amid China’s industrial prowess. Meeting in Belgium on Thursday, the bloc’s 27 leaders discussed protecting strategic sectors such as defense, clean tech, AI, and quantum to reduce reliance on Chinese subsidies and shield against US trade volatility. European Commission President **Ursula von der Leyen** advocated a once-taboo policy of European preference, which would favor European companies in certain sectors, such as clean tech. French President **Emmanuel Macron** backed a proposal to require governments to prioritize European industries. German Chancellor **Friedrich Merz** , on the other hand**,** warned that the approach should be about cutting red tape, strengthening the single market, and diversifying trade. * * * ### Kurdish militia’s demise in Syria forces prisoner transfer As part of last month’s _ceasefire deal_ between US-backed Kurdish forces and the Syrian army, Damascus would take control of many Kurdish-held areas of the country. There was just one problem: the Kurds had _run detention camps and prisons_ there that held suspected Islamic State militants. The US feared that the Kurdish militants’ demise could undermine prison security, so they started _transferring_ roughly 5,700 prisoners to Iraq – the US military said Friday that it had completed this mission. The prisoners won’t necessarily stay there: Iraq wants to _repatriate_ some of the prisoners, leaving Europe concerned that this will lead to a faster release for the prisoners. ### Russia is upset about Washington’s nuclear plans for Armenia The Kremlin is _not happy_ about the new plans the US announced on Monday to build a nuclear plant in Armenia. The tiny South Caucasus nation, once part of the USSR, has long been a key Russian ally and security partner, but Moscow’s influence has _recently been slipping_. The Kremlin failed to stop neighboring Azerbaijan from overrunning Armenian-backed forces in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020, and Russian Presi**dent Vladimir Putin** played second fiddle to US President **Donald Trump** in brokering a peace settlement there. Since then, the Kremlin has watched the US — along with other players like Turkey and the European Union — steadily _increase their influence_ in both countries. So, although Russian officials are publicly saying that US nuclear power companies are dangerously unfamiliar with the geology of earthquake-prone Armenia, their real concerns are about a different kind of tectonic shift entirely.

**65,000:** The tons of fresh-cut flowers that Colombia _exported_ between Jan. 15 and Feb. 9 this year, ahead of the Valentine’s Day rush. However, US tariffs and a _weaker dollar_ threaten to undermine the sector. Americans buy 80% of Colombia’s flower exports, but the Trump administration imposed 10% tariffs on Colombia last April. * * * **30:** The number of _seconds_ it took Norwegian biathlete **Sturla Holm Laegreid** to publicly express regret for cheating on his girlfriend during an interview after winning a bronze medal in the Winter Olympics. A tearful Laegreid revealed on camera that he had been unfaithful “to the love of my life” in what appeared to be an attempt to win her back. However, Laegreid’s now-former girlfriend _isn’t ready_ to forgive. **8%** : The _drop_ in French wine and spirit exports last year, the president of the country’s federation of wine and spirit exporters said on Tuesday. Geopolitical tension, trade wars, and weakening demand sent exports to their lowest level in 20 years. Can this weekend’s consumption pour some life back into the market? **100 million:** The number of _extra_ single people in the world today, compared to what there would have been had coupling rates remained at 2017 levels, according to an analysis by __The Economist__. Do you think a relationship recession is underway? Tell us _here_.

To many observers of the Middle East, it has felt like it is only a matter of time before the United States bombs Iran again. Ever since the anti-regime protests began around the turn of the year, US President **Donald Trump** has been threatening military action against Iran. At first, it was about the protests: Trump said the US was “ _locked and loaded and ready to go_” if the Islamic Republic killed peaceful protesters. Those protests ended in mid-January, following a brutal crackdown that left _thousands_ _dead_. Although Trump never hit Iran, his warnings continued. He reverted to a familiar refrain: end your nuclear program, he _told_ Tehran, or face strikes. Amid the war of words – Iran has _repeatedly pledged_ to retaliate – there has been a _buildup_ of US military assets in the region, including an aircraft carrier and three guided missile destroyers. More could be _on the way_ soon. * * * Trump also _discussed_ potential Iran strikes with Israeli Prime Minister **Benjamin Netanyahu** in Washington on Wednesday – Israel is the top Middle East foe of Tehran and wants to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The US leader said they hadn’t made a “definitive” agreement on what to do next, but that he would prefer to make a deal with Iran – the struggling country would obtain some sanctions relief in return for caps on its military capabilities. US and Iranian officials even _met_ in Oman last week, with each side expressing some optimism. Yet several obstacles to a deal persist. Tehran has openly refused to meet the conditions that Washington has set, which now extend beyond Iran’s nuclear program. They include _limits_ on its ballistic missiles, an _end_ to uranium enrichment, and a halt to funding for Tehran’s proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. So now Washington is at a crossroads: does it scale back its demands or go ahead with strikes? To learn what may happen next – and what potential military action could look like – GZERO spoke with Eurasia Group’s Iran expert **Greg Brew** , who sees only a narrow path to a deal. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. **GZERO: What are the US options for strikes against Iran?** Brew: The US has a lot of options. It could strike Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile and production facilities, reducing the threat posed to Israel and regional states. It could target the remnants of the nuclear program, including the stockpile of enriched uranium buried at the sites struck in June. It could go further and attempt to destabilize the regime by striking at internal security forces. Finally, it could attempt a “Venezuela-style” decapitation and remove Supreme Leader **Ali Khamenei** , in the hope that a new regime would be more pliable to US demands. **If they did remove the supreme leader, what would happen in Iran?** Khamenei’s death would be a shock to the political system in Iran. It would enrage the regime’s hardline base, while potentially giving hope to the millions of Iranians who oppose the regime. Overall, however, it may not change much – at least not at first. The rest of the leadership would manage a transition to a new supreme leader, and much of the Islamic Republic would probably continue to function as it has done for years. In the medium-term, however, Khamenei’s disappearance would trigger changes within the system, as the military and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps assume more power over decision-making while the clerics – including Khamenei’s replacement – take a back seat. **If they make a deal, would it differ from one Barack Obama signed with Iran in 2015?** The pathway to a deal is a narrow one. It would likely focus just on the nuclear issue, despite the fact that the US wants Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and regional proxies. It wouldn’t look too much like the Obama-era nuclear deal, as the US isn't likely to offer Iran sweeping sanctions relief, at least not at first. Iran, similarly, won't offer too many concessions. If the two sides do strike a deal, it will probably be a limited arrangement to reduce escalatory pressure. Tougher negotiations would lie ahead.

At the 62nd Munich Security Conference, GZERO’s **Tony Maciulis** spoke with **Benedikt Franke** , Vice Chairman and CEO of the Munich Security Conference, to discuss whether the post-1945 global order is under strain or already unraveling. Reflecting on last year’s headline-making speech by Vice President **JD Vance** , Franke said it “freaked Europeans into cohesion,” accelerating calls for greater European independence and resilience. But while NATO spending is rising, he cautioned that trust, not just tanks and budgets, is what ultimately sustains alliances. * * * The conversation also explored MSC’s latest report, "Under Destruction," which examines mounting pessimism across G7 democracies, rising inequality, and what Franke called an era of “wrecking ball politics," where institutions are torn down without clear plans to rebuild them. From Ukraine’s future and NATO cohesion to the role of the Global South and the risks of populism, Franke argued that reform is urgently needed. But he also notes that disruption without vision could deepen instability. As US leaders, including Secretary of State **Marco Rubio** , Congresswoman **Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez** , and California Governor **Gavin Newsom,** gather in Munich, the stakes are clear: rebuilding trust, redefining multilateralism, and answering a fundamental question: What does a better global order actually look like? This conversation is presented by GZERO from the 2026 Munich Security Conference. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical conversations on the geopolitical forces reshaping our world.

At the Munich Security Conference, the mood is clear: Europe no longer assumes the United States will lead. **Ian Bremmer** reports from Munich, where this year’s theme, “Under Destruction,” reflects growing anxiety that the US itself is destabilizing the transatlantic alliance it once anchored. * * * While European leaders talk openly about autonomy and de-risking from America economically and technologically, the security reality is starkly different. The United States remains overwhelmingly dominant militarily, and Europe lacks both the unity and fiscal capacity to respond independently. As Ian puts it: “Recognition doesn’t mean you can respond to it.” Europe understands the G-Zero world is here. The question is whether it can act like a geopolitical power, or whether it remains constrained by fragmentation and dependence.

Every year, the Munich Security Conference, the world’s leading forum on international security, releases data that sheds light on how citizens view global risks. In this year’s report, respondents in 11 countries assessed the severity of 32 risks between November 2024 and November 2025. One risk rose the most across virtually all G7 countries and several others: the United States. The trend began last year, when **Donald Trump** ’s return to the White House became a reality, and has intensified as his foreign policy has taken shape. The conference’s report describes this moment as an era of “wrecking-ball politics,” with the US as the primary driver, marked by sweeping disruption rather than careful reform. As the report puts it, “the US-led post-1945 international order is now under destruction.” Perceptions of the United States as a source of risk rose most sharply in Canada and India, by 19 and 18 points, respectively. Trade wars are also viewed with significantly increased severity this year, reaching their highest levels since the survey began across all countries polled. Yet even as perceptions of risk around Washington grew, other threats inside individual countries loomed large. Economic and financial crises, cyberattacks by foreign actors, and rising inequality were judged more serious in several countries, underscoring that geopolitical turbulence is only one part of a broader landscape of security concerns.

The US government _reportedly plans_ to fund MAGA-aligned groups in Europe. The stated aim is to oppose European laws on online speech. However, if the money is also used to boost right-wing political parties in Europe, as it allegedly will, then there’s a flaw in the strategy: US President **Donald Trump** isn’t too popular in Europe, as this Graphic Truth shows. Right-wing groups in Europe could thus be reluctant to accept these funds if it means they must link themselves to the Trump administration.