Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌎🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽
LightNews LightNews
gsansongomez.bsky.social
Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌎🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽
@gsansongomez.bsky.social
140 followers 200 following 6 posts
Gradually moving over from Twitter. Co-Convenor @scotyounggreens 💚| Degrowth and New Economy Researcher | Fan of Polling Data (He/Him)
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌎🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽
ballotbox.scot
Projecting Ipsos 12-18 Jun into seats (changes vs 25-31 Jan 24(!) / vs 2021; both on new boundaries):

SNP ~ 59 (+2 / -4)
Lab ~ 23 (-18 / +2)
Reform UK ~ 17 (+17 / +17)
Green ~ 16 (+5 / +6)
Con ~ 7 (-7 / -24)
Lib Dem ~ 7 (+1 / +3)

(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)
Map of projected seats. SNP win 59 constituencies, Conservatives 1, Labour 5, Lib Dems 5, Greens 3. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 6 Conservative, 18 Labour, 13 Green, 2 Lib Dem, 17 Reform UK. Labour lead in West, Glasgow and Edinburgh and Lothians East, SNP lead in other five regions. Gallagher Index is 15.1 - a lower index means a more proportional result. Map of projected runners up and margins. SNP are second in 13 constituencies, Conservatives in 14, Labour in 41, Lib Dems in 3, Greens in 1, Reform UK in 1. Closest runner up for last list seat per region is Conservative in Highlands and Islands, North East and Central and West Lothian, Labour in West, Glasgow and Mid and Fife, Lib Dem in South, and Reform UK in Edinburgh and Lothians East. In percentage terms margins of victory are 13 constituencies below 5, 21 between 5 and 10, 27 between 10 and 20, 12 above 20.
July 1, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Reposted by Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌎🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽
niallchristie1.bsky.social
A very important issue for the party, and one that must be addressed if we're to grow next year.

Read the full story now on Green Left Scotland.

greenleftscotland.substack.com/p/scottish-y...
Scottish Young Greens warn of apathy among youth vote in 2026
"A lot of young people will vote Green, but they’re not excited about the Greens."
greenleftscotland.substack.com
May 7, 2025 at 6:24 AM
gsansongomez.bsky.social
How are you estimating notional Green constituency shares when the new boundaries include parts of previous constituencies with no Green candidate? (I.e new Edinburgh Central including bits of former Edinburgh Southern). Been trying to estimate it on my end and it’s doing my head in tbh…
April 13, 2025 at 11:15 PM