Graham
@greysmithereens.bsky.social
Theoretical lawyer, practical wonk.
Damn sucks that he got banished just as the Constellation was cancelled, it's like he's missing his own birthday party.
November 25, 2025 at 11:50 PM
Damn sucks that he got banished just as the Constellation was cancelled, it's like he's missing his own birthday party.
"I would point out something I think is bad without actually engaging with or disproving the argument offered" genuinely how is this considered acceptable behavior for a knowledge professional?
November 25, 2025 at 11:17 PM
"I would point out something I think is bad without actually engaging with or disproving the argument offered" genuinely how is this considered acceptable behavior for a knowledge professional?
My preference for primaries is ranked choice voting + rules that states closest to tipping one direction or another go first to ensure the candidates can theoretically appeal in those states in the general.
November 24, 2025 at 2:07 AM
My preference for primaries is ranked choice voting + rules that states closest to tipping one direction or another go first to ensure the candidates can theoretically appeal in those states in the general.
I should’ve been clearer that I’m mostly skeptical of mines as a US capability for this reason, but that they’re very useful for TW.
Regarding a protracted conflict, I have seen no good material on what war termination might look like in a TW fight and I expect it wouldn’t look good for the US.
Regarding a protracted conflict, I have seen no good material on what war termination might look like in a TW fight and I expect it wouldn’t look good for the US.
November 24, 2025 at 1:57 AM
I should’ve been clearer that I’m mostly skeptical of mines as a US capability for this reason, but that they’re very useful for TW.
Regarding a protracted conflict, I have seen no good material on what war termination might look like in a TW fight and I expect it wouldn’t look good for the US.
Regarding a protracted conflict, I have seen no good material on what war termination might look like in a TW fight and I expect it wouldn’t look good for the US.
Mines also have this problem though, and you’ll be dealing with countermeasure and escorts either way. If you could be confident you can lay out a lot of mines this is less problematic, but I don’t think the US will get that opportunity.
November 24, 2025 at 1:55 AM
Mines also have this problem though, and you’ll be dealing with countermeasure and escorts either way. If you could be confident you can lay out a lot of mines this is less problematic, but I don’t think the US will get that opportunity.
Agreed the ROCN should be all over this, but I don’t think the USN will have a lot of opportunities to do this sort of thing.
November 24, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Agreed the ROCN should be all over this, but I don’t think the USN will have a lot of opportunities to do this sort of thing.
You’d have to really trust your mines’ ability to identify friend from foe if you’re doing that, but advances in autonomy might enable it? I don’t know enough about ocean currents to go beyond that unfortunately.
November 24, 2025 at 1:50 AM
You’d have to really trust your mines’ ability to identify friend from foe if you’re doing that, but advances in autonomy might enable it? I don’t know enough about ocean currents to go beyond that unfortunately.
In a strait fight there’s going to be no shortage of priority targets, and I don’t think the US will be capable of sortieing enough to create a sufficient density of mines for effective area denial. The Taiwanese on the other hand should definitely buy mines.
November 24, 2025 at 1:47 AM
In a strait fight there’s going to be no shortage of priority targets, and I don’t think the US will be capable of sortieing enough to create a sufficient density of mines for effective area denial. The Taiwanese on the other hand should definitely buy mines.
The main problem with mines in the Strait is how do you get them there, and if the conflict has started do you want to use your sorties on mines or a missile?
November 24, 2025 at 1:39 AM
The main problem with mines in the Strait is how do you get them there, and if the conflict has started do you want to use your sorties on mines or a missile?
Mamdani was able to do this somewhat as well, but he's a more explicitly ideological candidate from a different political tradition that might punish his heterodoxy more aggressively once the honeymoon is over.
November 24, 2025 at 12:37 AM
Mamdani was able to do this somewhat as well, but he's a more explicitly ideological candidate from a different political tradition that might punish his heterodoxy more aggressively once the honeymoon is over.
Well, both Trump and Obama combined the ideology of themselves with "horse-trading" to be more attractive to the median voter. I expect this to be the necessary formula for electoral victory in the future, and parties without leaders who can do this won't win.
November 24, 2025 at 12:36 AM
Well, both Trump and Obama combined the ideology of themselves with "horse-trading" to be more attractive to the median voter. I expect this to be the necessary formula for electoral victory in the future, and parties without leaders who can do this won't win.
Has any series done fantasy armor as consistently and as well as Jackson's LoTR?
November 24, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Has any series done fantasy armor as consistently and as well as Jackson's LoTR?
When you have to "get to 50," all parts that get you to 50 can claim that they are necessary to your victory and therefore should receive something or else they'll defect. This is poisonous to actually getting to 50 regularly unless you can horse-trade well or fall back on ideology.
November 24, 2025 at 12:31 AM
When you have to "get to 50," all parts that get you to 50 can claim that they are necessary to your victory and therefore should receive something or else they'll defect. This is poisonous to actually getting to 50 regularly unless you can horse-trade well or fall back on ideology.
The global economy man, it's not in a great spot.
November 24, 2025 at 12:16 AM
The global economy man, it's not in a great spot.
There's really nothing that could be doing well outside the AI play right now. If you sell to consumers you're staring down inflation + tariffs and if you make anything you're facing brutal competition from the Chinese export engine. It's not a great time to be a firm!
November 24, 2025 at 12:09 AM
There's really nothing that could be doing well outside the AI play right now. If you sell to consumers you're staring down inflation + tariffs and if you make anything you're facing brutal competition from the Chinese export engine. It's not a great time to be a firm!
“And what if, by passing exams, I could achieve arbitrary power over the world rather than being subject to it (and no longer have to take exams).”
November 23, 2025 at 8:08 PM
“And what if, by passing exams, I could achieve arbitrary power over the world rather than being subject to it (and no longer have to take exams).”
You could say the Dems achieved a tactical victory by eating a lot of floor time during a Republican trifecta but botched the withdrawal from the fight, but it's not clear to me that there would be any acceptable withdrawal, particularly while you're winning the media argument.
November 11, 2025 at 10:41 PM
You could say the Dems achieved a tactical victory by eating a lot of floor time during a Republican trifecta but botched the withdrawal from the fight, but it's not clear to me that there would be any acceptable withdrawal, particularly while you're winning the media argument.
I don't think those pushing for a fight here on Bsky sketched this out in a war-fighting sense either, since it was obvious from early on that the Dems couldn't win any of the concessions preferred on here, which were going to be much larger politically than healthcare subsidies.
November 11, 2025 at 10:40 PM
I don't think those pushing for a fight here on Bsky sketched this out in a war-fighting sense either, since it was obvious from early on that the Dems couldn't win any of the concessions preferred on here, which were going to be much larger politically than healthcare subsidies.
Insofar as there’s an “American way of war,” air power is the absolute core of it.
November 1, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Insofar as there’s an “American way of war,” air power is the absolute core of it.
It’s been the dream of defense planners for a decade to overcome congressional resistance and use Korean yards to build US frigates, but I don’t have faith anything like that could come from this.
October 24, 2025 at 9:32 PM
It’s been the dream of defense planners for a decade to overcome congressional resistance and use Korean yards to build US frigates, but I don’t have faith anything like that could come from this.
It’s not entirely crazy to field a heavier ship that can carry more hypersonics…but we have so many bigger priorities right now and a totally atrophied industrial base. This is like a 2045 project, not a 2025 project.
October 24, 2025 at 8:46 PM
It’s not entirely crazy to field a heavier ship that can carry more hypersonics…but we have so many bigger priorities right now and a totally atrophied industrial base. This is like a 2045 project, not a 2025 project.