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The chief driver of the rise in U.S. carbon intensity has been a roughly 13% increase in coal-fired power generation, which has lifted U.S. power sector emissions from fossil fuel use to three-year highs.

Over the first 10 months of 2025, the United States was the only major power market to increase the carbon intensity of power generation compared to the year before, according to data from energy think tank Ember.

To help outline potential grounds for dispute among impacted countries, below is a breakdown of Europe's most gas-dependent nations and key regional gas import trends.
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More opposition as well as further refining of the final plan can be expected over the coming months, which EU authorities hope to pass legislation on in early 2026.

Some countries - including Hungary and Slovakia - are weighing legal action against the EU as their economies are highly dependent on gas for power and industry and can't benefit from LNG imports as they are landlocked.

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A similar pattern seems to be unfolding as 2025 winds down, with coal-fired generation on the rise and gas-fired output getting pared back as gas prices approach three-year highs and strain the budgets of power suppliers.

Between January and March of this year, U.S. gas prices jumped by a third due to a cold snap and strong LNG exports, which in turn sparked higher U.S. coal-fired power generation as utilities cut costs by burning cheaper coal instead of gas.

That heightened competition will severely test the U.S. ability to remain the top global LNG supplier, as it will lead to sharply higher transit costs for U.S. exporters and narrower profit margins as sellers compete for deals.

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If the U.S. is to cement its role as the preeminent global supplier of LNG, export flows will need to grow sharply in key markets outside of Europe in areas where the likes of Qatar, Australia, Malaysia and Russia are already well established.

Further, the U.S. share of exports into the largest region for LNG imports - Asia - is far smaller than rivals Qatar and Australia, which enjoy far more cost-effective shipping times to key markets such as Japan, China and India.

But while U.S. liquefied natural gas exports in 2025 are nearly a third more than those of the next largest exporter, the heavy skew of sales to Europe leaves American LNG vendors at risk of rapid volume downturns as European buyers curb gas use.

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Ten charts on global energy and emissions trends since Paris treaty:
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On the other hand, global output and use of coal, crude oil and natural gas have continued to climb to fresh records, along with resulting energy use emissions, which in 2024 were nearly 10% more than discharged in 2015.

On the one hand, an explosion in renewable energy deployment and a surge in electric vehicle sales have upended global power and car markets and ushered in an ongoing "electrify everything" push across the planet.